Economic Impacts of prospective technologies:
Wind case study
Richard Wood, Anders Arvesen
*Corresponding/presenting author:
Industrial Ecology Program, NTNU, 7491, Norway ph: +4773598938, e-mail: richard.wood@ntnu.no,
http://www.ntnu.no/indecol
Outline of presentation
• Introduction to PROSUITE
• Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment
• Prospective assessment
• Methods: Hybrid LCA in economic IO modelling
• Technology change
• Rebound effects
Introduction to PROSUITE
• PROSUITE, a four-year project funded in part by the European Commission, gathers 26 scientific, SME and industry partners
• PROSUĐTE will provide tools to assess the economic,
environmental and social dimensions of technologies in a standardized, comprehensive way.
• PROSUITE will develop a coherent, scientifically sound
methodology for the sustainability assessment of current and future technologies, taking into account their entire life cycle. The
PROSUITE tools will be applicable both to well-developed technologies, and to ones that are just emerging.
Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment
• Broadening LCA:
Environmental +Economic
+Social
Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment
• Broadening LCA:
Environmental +Economic
+Social
Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment
• Broadening LCA:
Environmental +Economic
+Social
• Economic
– Life cycle costing (financial) – Employment
– GDP
– Structural change
Prospective Assessment
• Uncertain futures
• Market development of a technology
• Consequential effects of a new technology
• Functional unit → Macro scale
Hybrid analysis
Integrated hybrid analysis
integrates LCA information into the economy, affecting the
product value chain of other sectors of the economy
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Hybrid analysis
Integrated hybrid analysis
integrates LCA information into the economy, affecting the
product value chain of other sectors of the economy
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A A
A A A
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Costed Life cycle inventory $/unit
Capital, operational, End of life
LCI (unit/unit)
IO system, adjusted for double counting of product
Use of product (unit/$)
Impact assessment Technology
description
IOA – economic, social, environmental sectoral
requirements
Scenario forecast:
Hybrid LCA:
Impact assessment
Source: PROSUITE documents: Michael Hauschild (DTU): Particular attention for definition on technology life cycle
Generic onshore wind farm
Lifetime 20 years Assumed to be representative for all components in the system.
Average load 21.0% Derived from numbers on 2007 global capacity and electricity generation in
Nominal power 2.5 MW Nominal power of one wind turbine.
Number of wind turbines
48 Number of wind turbines in one farm.
Wind farm
components and activities:
•
ind turbine
•
ravity-based foundations (reinforced concrete)
•
nfield cabling
•
xternal cabling (transmission to existing grid)
•
igh-voltage transformer
•
nstallation and decommissioning activities Key characteristics of generic onshore wind farm
Economic assessment of technology
• Functional unit
– Current state – Scenario
• Full scale implementation
– Market penetration scenario
– Rebound scenario
Functional unit: Life Cycle
Cost
Functional Unit results
2.10E-01 2.20E-01 2.30E-01 2.40E-01 2.50E-01
Wind Electricity (generic)
GDP Euro/kWh
GDP Euro/kWh
0.00E+00 5.00E-09 1.00E-08 1.50E-08 2.00E-08 2.50E-08 3.00E-08
Wind Electricity (generic)
Compensation of employees Million Euro/kWh
Compensation of employees Million Euro/kWh
2.30E-08 2.40E-08 2.50E-08 2.60E-08 2.70E-08
Wind Electricity (generic)
Fixed capital consumption Million Euro/kWh
Fixed capital consumption Million Euro/kWh
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Wind Electricity (generic)
Economy wide
Employment by skill level share
High skilled Medium skilled Low skilled
Scenario-based LCA: Methodology
• Scaling unit-based findings to estimate aggregated impacts (global)
– Time-series modeling
• Investigating ‘BLUE’ scenarios of IEA
– BLUE Map: Share of wind in electricity 2050: 12%
– BLUE hi REN: Share of wind in electricity 2050: 22%
Renewable power in BLUE Map scenario:
• Replacement of wind energy systems after 20 years
• Incorporate temporal distribution of emissions
– Construction emissions: prior to operating lifetime – O&M emissions: distributed over operating lifetime – Avoided emissions: distributed over operating lifetime – EOL emissions: after the operating lifetime
Scenario-based LCA: Methodology, cont.
2007
Baseline 2050
BLUE Map 2050
BLUE hi REN Global electricity production from wind power (TWh) 173 2149 4916 8193
Share of renewables in electricity production (%) 18 22 48 75
Share of wind in electricity production (%) 0.9 4.7 12.2 21.8
Average generation cost increase from Baseline (2050) (%) 19 31
Total energy-related CO2emissions (Gt/yr) 28.9 57.0 14.0 12.9
Selected characteristics of IEA’s Baseline, BLUE Map, and BLUE hi REN energy scenarios
