DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF RURALPOPULATION AGING
LORENA FLORENTINA CHIŢEA 1
Abstract: Romania, like most European countries in recent years, is faced with a worrying demographic phenomenon of population aging with multiple consequences of demographic, social, cultural, economic, political nature etc. The main factors that caused this situation were: declining birth rates, rising life expectancy and external migration; reducing or stopping this population decline must be achieved by improving the combined result of the three mentioned factors. The implications of aging are complex and are felt both at the macroeconomic (influencing economic growth, pension and health care system functionality, investments etc.) and micro economic level (individual level, which must adapt their behavior to the evolution of the economic environment). The present paper aims to surprise the ruralpopulation aging phenomena from demographic and social perspective. The working hypothesis is that, as the county shows a more pronounced level of rurality, so its population is aging, less educated, with high employment in agriculture, generating low levels of competitiveness.
ABSTRACT: A higher level and continuous education throughout entire life (necessary for adapting to the changes in the labor market) and a better health offer greater chances of sustained economic and social development. Also, a higher education level contributes to decrease the disparities between economic regions of development, due to the influence it has on employment population, in a particular area. The analysis may reveal regional employment disparities, sometimes severe, between development regions, representing a hindrance to economic development of the country, as a whole. The 8 development regions of Romania have certain particularities (features) in terms of employment, which makes some characteristics (demographic, educational etc.) to impart significant influence on employment.This paper aims to highlight the features of the rural area, in terms of population participation in economic activity, and disparities between the development regions, in terms of employment of ruralpopulation, respectively the influence that the level of education has on employment, and how it is reflected in the employment rates of ruralpopulation (by age groups), but also ranking of the development regions from this point of view.
Statistical data regarding the access of the ruralpopulation to waste collection services were processed by hierarchical cluster analysis method resulting a map that divided Romanian counties in 5 classes with various evolution than Romanian average,these values being expressed in standard deviations and arithmetic average (chart).Data was provided by the 8 Regional Environmental Protection Agencies for all 41 counties. Also,paper performs a comparative analysis between 2003 (first year for which data are available at county level) and 2008,concerning the share of ruralpopulation without access to sanitation services.Thematic maps show the percentage (%) and absolute values (number of people) necessary for a proper interpretation due to demographic differentiation between Romanian counties.
3.3. The role and place of little farms in economic sustainability of ruralpopulation. If theoretically there are some measures for constitution of greater farms which can sustain economically the needs of a peasant family in reality the small farms isn`t never helped in a developing process. The banks refuse to credit them they haven`t vocation for the credit affirm the bankers. And on the other hand the process of constitution of very great farms is encouraged inclusively by projects financed from European founds because the great farms can pay their part of the credit. Recent propositions to limit them the subsidies aren`t liked by the government which consider that in this manner the state income will be reduced and competitively of them too. The great landlords tell us like in the old times. We pay the taxis and contribute of the growth of the
Provided in Cooperation with:
Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association
Suggested Citation: Roggemann, Hanne; Myriam, Hadnes; Andreas, Landmann (2013) : Ethnic
Risk Sharing among the RuralPopulation in Vietnam - An Experimental Approach, Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2013: Wettbewerbspolitik und Regulierung in einer globalen Wirtschaftsordnung - Session: Risk Sharing in Developing Countries, No. G20-V2, ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Kiel und Hamburg
Background: Cytomegaloviruses (CMVs) are herpesviruses that infect many mammalian species, including humans. Infection generally passes undetected, but the virus can cause serious disease in individuals with impaired immune function. Human CMV (HCMV) is circulating with high seroprevalence (60 –100 %) on all continents. However, little information is available on HCMV genoprevalence and genetic diversity in subsaharan Africa, especially in rural areas of West Africa that are at high risk of human-to-human HCMV transmission. In addition, there is a potential for zoonotic spillover of pathogens through bushmeat hunting and handling in these areas as shown for various retroviruses. Although HCMV and nonhuman CMVs are regarded as species-specific, potential human infection with CMVs of non-human primate (NHP) origin, shown to circulate in the local NHP population, has not been studied. Findings: Analysis of 657 human oral swabs and fecal samples collected from 518 individuals living in 8 villages of Côte d ’Ivoire with generic PCR for identification of human and NHP CMVs revealed shedding of HCMV in 2.5 % of the individuals. Determination of glycoprotein B sequences showed identity with strains Towne, AD169 and Toledo, respectively. NHP CMV sequences were not detected.
The settlement patterns of the foreign-born population have changed considerably since the 1960 and 1970s, as a consequence of the transition from labour immigration to refugee immigration. While many labour market immigrants of earlier years settled down in industrial towns or communities as a result of the demand of blue-collar workers, the refugees after the 1970s and 1980s became more concentrated to the metropolitan areas – the Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö regions. It is, also, very rare that the new immigrants leave metropolitan areas (Andersson 2006). This development resulted also in some changes in the policy concerning immigration and integration. Politicians, researchers and media noticed the increased concentration in the metropolitan areas in combination with the low labour market participation rates for new immigrants. As a result, the new “countrywide strategy for refugee reception” was launched in 1985 and shifting the responsibility of the new immigrants from a government authority to the cities and municipalities. In an attempt to hamper the concentration in the metropolitan areas, the new strategy further stated that a refugee no longer could settle down where he/she wanted to live. From 1985 to 1994, in line with this countrywide strategy, the majority of the immigrants were more than before dispersed across Sweden (SCB 2006b, Johansson and Rauhut 2007, 2008).
1. Suburbanisation. In the socialist era council flats were built only in cities. Rural residents built their house themselves. Since the mid–1980s villagers were paid state assistance to solve their housing problems. At the same time the building of council flats dropped in cities. As a result, blue- and white-collar city workers built their house in the agglomeration area of the cities they worked in. Living and commuting from within a 50 kilometre (30 mile) radius of Budapest and from within a 30 kilometre (20 mile) radius of large cities be- came a popular social phenomenon. However, the increase in purchasing power resulting from the migration of rich and educated social classes to rural areas did not generate a booming rural economy. Those wealthy people who live in villages travel to cities for shopping, because those services they need are available in cities only. Taking children to city kindergartens and schools is an example for their attitude to rural services. Thus, suburbanisation increases the number of ruralpopulation but growth is not coupled with local identity. The migration of blue- and white –collar urban population is still to be regarded as a positive trend because it accelerates the progress of rural society towards a middle class society.
TABLE 2 summarizes the main results of the projection of the population in the rural areas of Castilla y León in accordance with the hypothesis of the base scenario. That is, the main result consists in observing how there is a decrease of more than 225,000 people from the total ruralpopulation during the projected period, and estimating that the population will reach an approximate total of 501,300 people in 2026, a number which represents a decrease of 30.4% with respect to 2001. There is not a big difference between the decrease in the male and the female population. This demographic regression continues along these tendencies throughout the last decades and in the projection, one can observe how the drop in population takes places in all of the quinquenniums, though it is much more accelerated throughout the years 2001-2006 and 2006-2011, and slower after the regressive tendency. This evolution of the population is clearly due to a strong negative natural growth, given that, from the year 2006, the net migration is projected to be slightly positive.
indicators show systematically decreasing numbers, with the Gini index for the agricultural sector decreasing in parallel levels to that of the Gini index for the distribution of labor income for all engaged people”.
7. It should be highlighted that changes in urban boundaries between censuses also affect this figure, reducing growth due to the ‘transformation’ of rural households into urban ones between the 2004/2009 and 2011/2013 PNADs. 8. Valadares and Souza (2016) point to a “sharp increase in household income arising from retirement pensions, other pensions and social benefits, the latter included under the ‘other income’ heading. Per capita household income from retirement and other pensions—whose floor is linked to the minimum wage—registered an increase of 102.6%.” 9. The significant decrease in the number of unpaid household members (2.8 million) and its association with the growth of those engaged in activities for self-consumption (700,000) demand further study. Hypotheses may be suggested, however, taking into account the behaviour of the agricultural labour market as a whole. Following the categorisation of the agricultural and/or ruralpopulation and the types of agricultural and pluriactive households defined in Soares et al. (2016), it can be shown that the reduction in agricultural labour is more intense in self-employed worker households than among wage-earning employees, reflecting the advances seen in labour productivity in these households. The increase in the number of workers engaged in work for self-consumption in pluriactive households points to a significant number of households that resist leaving the activity. Indeed, among those engaged in agriculture, 2 million receive no income from the activity, living in households in which all members engaged in agriculture are in such a situation. Workers engaged in work for self-consumption and unpaid household members amount to 40 per cent of agricultural occupation, with half of them living in households with no agricultural income.
deeper outreach than credit (C HARITONENKO et al. 2004; S CHREINER 2002;
Z ELLER and S HARMA 2000). In contrast to the enormous credit outreach in
Northern Vietnam, formal savings are used by rural households only on an in- significant scale. However, this low effective demand for savings instruments is caused by inappropriate savings products and not by the inability or unwilling- ness of the ruralpopulation to save. This research has proved again that even the poorest households in Northern Vietnam are able and willing to save. Over 80% of all households in this sample demand a formal savings scheme. The supply of client-adapted savings services not only boosts the outreach of the formal finan- cial system, but also offers the possibility to create financially sustainable struc- tures within the existing institutes. However, savings products need to be tailored closely to the needs of the ruralpopulation. Otherwise they will not be adopted by the local people. When offering savings services to the ruralpopulation, es- pecially to the poor, close physical proximity to customers is seen as a key factor for success. This proximity could be achieved by creating decentralized profit centers. Credit officers would collect and pay out savings locally as well as per- forming all credit activities. Thus, deposit collection could be done within the village. Local savings collection by the credit officer would also influence the credit business very positively. The credit officer has access to a much broader range of information to assess the client’s creditworthiness. These profit centers also guarantee good internal monitoring of most operational costs involved in financial intermediation.
Sources: IBGE, Demographic Census of 2000.and PNAD of 1999; Health Ministry, Mortality Information System; and Silva and Medina (1999, p. 12).
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The most populous of these regions is the Southeast, which contained 42.4% of the Nation’s total population in 2000. Although it occupies only 10.8% of the Brazilian land area, it includes the major industrial centres: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte. The region dominates Brazil economically in all sectors, including agriculture. Furthermore, per capita income is almost three times as high as that of the Northeast region. The Northeast is Brazil’s poorest region with 28.4% of the total population and 18.3% of the land area. Its share of Brazil’s ruralpopulation was 46.3% according to the 2000 Demographic Census. It had the highest total fertility rate in the second half of the 1990s (3.1 compared to 2.2 for the Southeast), the lowest expectation of life at birth in 1998 and the highest illiteracy rate in Brazil. This region accounted for only 12.6% of the Brazilian GNP in 1998. Table 1 presents some indicators that summarize the mentioned differences.
3. The unification process created a couple of social inequalities between West and East Germans, old and new (land) owners or employed and unemployed. The metaphors of “passive winners” and “active losers” have been used to characterise the fateful character of the individuals’ repositioning in the post-socialist order (Brauer et al. 1996). A part of this story is that in many villages a handful of highly subsidised farmers occupied all the land, while a large share of the ruralpopulation tried to survive with low paid, and insecure jobs, and to make a living through a combination of work income, household subsistence and social welfare payments. While the downsized and increasingly efficient agricultural sector rapidly became a symbol of successful transformation, the rest of the rural economy remained a picture of misery (Laschewski und Siebert 2001).
We model perceived criticality as a direct consequence of pessimistic beliefs about objective probabilities. 4 We thus go beyond the work of Au et al. (1998)
and Au (2004), who provide suggestive evidence that population uncertainty has a negative eect on perceived criticality, but do not model the perceived criticality as a direct consequence of pessimism. Their prediction is experimen- tally corroborated by Au (2004), who shows that cooperation rates are indeed lower in a sequential threshold public-goods game with an uncertain group size. In contrast, our model predicts higher cooperation rates under population un- certainty. However, the fundamental dierence between their setup and ours lies in the fact that in their case, successful cooperation requires more than one person.
Any conservation action plan for brown bears in the Lesser Caucasus needs to consider the influences of big dam and HEPP constructions on this genetically highly diverse bear population (high mtDNA diversity ( Çilingir et al., 2016 ) and nuclear diversity (this study)). Therefore, we would like to advocate the construction of conservation corridors over reservoirs of big dams or major roads to decrease the severity of genetic isolation and habitat fragmentation. In this way, brown bears in Turkey might continue to serve as a genetic reserve for southwest Asia (e.g., not only for Lesser Caucasus, but also for the Middle East). We suggest long term genetic monitoring of this valuable bear population by using at least two noninvasive sampling techniques to include female bears. We also urge authorities to plan a series of conservation measures in order to guarantee the gene flow needed between subpopulations in order to maintain sustainable levels of genetic diversity.
7.5. Stochastic Frontier Analysis – First Efficiency Measures
As one result of a study tour to Germany by water and sewerage professionals of the World Bank in 1995 the chief of the water and sanitation division Briscoe noted that there is no incentive as well as study for German water suppliers to compare their cost efficiency with the ‘international frontier’ of water supplying firms (see BRISCOE 1995). Due to severe problems of data collection as well as data validity (e.g. with respect to different national financial accounting standards) the accurate estimation of such a efficiency frontier seems to be largely unrealistic at present state of national and international statistics. As no such frontier estimation for the German (urban as well as rural) water sector was done so far this study on the efficiency of rural water suppliers aims to shed some empirical light on the technical and financial situation of the German water sector. Beside the use for the national sector as well as for policy makers in transition countries the results are at least a first step to include German suppliers’ efficiency in a international comparative perspective.
static idea of nutritional efficiency wages with involuntary unemployment, the whole sample has been pooled, so that for most individuals, two subsequent observations can be used. Standard errors are corrected for the correlation between observations of the same individual. To explain the employment probability, a probit estimation is used. Explanatory variables in addition to the BMI and BMI squared are personal characteristics such as age, marital status, sex and a proxy for education, time dummies and regional dummies to control for differences between urban and rural areas and between coast and landlocked areas. To control for productivity differences, I further introduce the availability of land as an additional explanatory variable. Per capita household income of the household members other than the observed person is used as another measure influencing productivity and thus labour market chances. Table 4 shows the results of the pure probit estimation in column (1), probit with instrumented BMI and BMI squared in column (2) and the two instrumental regressions in columns (3) and (4). I only included cities other than Abidjan and the rural regions as described in the data section.
und andere Ameisen die Futterquelle wiederfinden können. Je mehr Ameisen einem bestimmten Weg folgen, desto stärker wird die Duftspur. Je stärker die Duftspur, desto vielversprechender erscheint der Weg, so dass immer mehr Ameisen diesen Weg wählen und somit die Duftspur immer weiter verstärken. Trotzdem entscheiden sich einige vereinzelte Ameisen immer wieder in unregelmäßigen Abständen ohne erkennbaren Grund, einen anderen oder völlig neuen Weg einzuschlagen. Die Hoffnung, eine noch ergiebigere Futterquelle oder einen kürzeren, schnelleren oder einfacheren Weg zu einer bereits bekannten Futterquelle zu finden, treibt diese abweichende Handlung voran. Der Ant Colony Optimization Algorithmus ist dabei diesen letzteren, explorierenden Ameisen nachempfunden. Entgegen der Natur wird dieser Algorithmus hierbei aber sehr verkürzt. Eine Population von zufällig generierten Agenten (Ameisen) wird gestartet, die alle zufällig neue Wege erkunden. Nach einem bestimmten Zeitraum wird der Erfolg eines jeden Agenten ausgewertet. Bei einem weiteren Zyklus des Algorithmus werden Kopien der im vorherigen Zyklus erfolgreichsten Agenten generiert, die ihrerseits wieder die Gegend erkunden. Nach einigen Durchläufen kann mithilfe dieses Algorithmus eine gute Approximation für einen kürzesten Weg gefunden werden.
planning directly. The State Council launched a large-scale program of the SNC since 2005. The strategy was to construct rural houses (apartments) through integrating rural construction lands so that public services could be delivered and additional construction land spared. It was a new approach aimed at maintaining the urbanization rate while improving the rural built environment and encouraging rural transformation. The expectation was that the problems created by the previous binary rural-urban development policy could be gradually settled. Although this appeared a logical expectation in urban development, spaces that were ill-matched with rural lifestyle were created in rural areas. Therefore, rather than releasing the rural development pressure, this strategy ended up increasingly problematizing rural urbanization. The SNC program was designed to focus on delivering public services to the rural areas through an efficient method while at the same time improving the existing built-environment. Accordingly, (dilapidate) rural houses [Figure 8] were simply demolished without any consideration, and new rural apartments assembled and parallelly lined up [Figure 9]. The previous diversities emanating from human-environment interactions, development histories, and local cultures were destroyed. The differences in the new rural apartments could only be observed in terms of building styles. Although some of the new village projects incorporated traditional Chinese residential elements, these were not necessarily local elements [Figure 10]. Meanwhile, some inappropriate public spaces were also introduced to the new villages to encourage daily communication, social activities, and healthy lifestyles, which unfortunately had no relevance to the rural residents. Some unexpected activities were frequently observed every day in the new villages. For instance, the rural elderliness still used to wash things in the water near their houses, so they always took the designed landscape ponds as a replacement of rivers/brooks after moving into new rural apartments. The behaviors might as well be forbidden, but there was no natural water space close to their neighborhood anymore [Figure 11]. Besides, which were even worse situations, some public open spaces created for fulfilling the living requirements of the urban lifestyles were introduced into the rural regions. Not surprisingly, few rural residents actually used and needed them [Figure 12]. Therefore, the ubiquitously ill-matched rural space and lifestyle is another issue that was constantly criticized regarding rural development priorities and public investment efficiency.