7KHSURGXFWLRQDELOLW\RIUDEELWGRHVLQUHODWLRQWRWKHLU ORQJHYLW\
=V6]HQGU (%LUy1pPHWK,5DGQDL*0LOLVLWV$=LPiQ\L
3DQQRQ8QLYHUVLW\RI$JULFXOWXUH)DFXOW\RI$QLPDO6FLHQFH'HSDUWPHQWRI6PDOO$QLPDO3URGXFWLRQ .DSRVYiU+*XED6X+XQJDU\
$%675$&7
3DQQRQ:KLWHGRHVZHUHGLYLGHGLQWRJURXSVEDVHGRQWKHWRWDOQXPEHURIOLWWHUV WKH\ KDG KDG $ % & ' RYHU DQG WKH OHQJWK RI WLPH VSHQW LQ SURGXFWLRQEHORZDQGRYHU\HDUV,WZDVHVWDEOLVKHGWKDWWKH GRHVSHUIRUPLQJDERYHDYHUDJHDWHDUO\DJHUHPDLQHGSURGXFWLYHIRUDORQJHUWLPH7KH DXWKRUV DUH RI WKH RSLQLRQ WKDW SHUIRUPDQFH DW HDUO\ DJH JLYHV LQGLFDWLRQV RI WKH DQLPDO¶V FRQVWLWXWLRQ 7KH FRQVWLWXWLRQDOO\ EHWWHU DQG KHDOWKLHU GRHV XVXDOO\ KDYH D ORQJHUSURGXFWLYHOLIH
.H\ZRUGV3DQQRQ:KLWHUDEELWGRHVSURGXFWLYHOLIHUHSURGXFWLRQ g66=()2*/$/È6
$]DQ\DQ\XODNWHUPHOpVHpOHWWDUWDPXNWyOIJJ HQ 6]HQGU =V%LUyQp1pPHWK(5DGQDL,0LOLVLWV*=LPiQ\L$
3DQQRQ$JUiUWXGRPiQ\L(J\HWHPÈOODWWHQ\pV]WpVL.DU.DSRVYiU*XED6X
3DQQRQIHKpUDQ\DQ\XODWFVRSRUWRVtWRWWDND]HOpUWILDOiVRNV]iPD$ %
& ' I|O|WWpVDWHUPHOpVEHQW|OW|WWLG V]HULQWpYDODWW pV pY IHOHWW 0HJiOODStWRWWiN KRJ\ D ILDWDO NRUEDQ MREEDQ WHUPHO DQ\DQ\XODN KRVV]DEELGHLJPDUDGQDNWHUPHOpVEHQ6]HU] NYpOHPpQ\HV]HULQWDILDWDONRULWHUPHOpV WiMpNR]WDW D] iOODW NRQVWLW~FLyMiUyO $ My NRQVWLW~FLyM~ pV HJpV]VpJHV DQ\DQ\XODN KRVV]DEEpOHWWDUWDP~DN
,1752'8&7,21
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iU
WKDWWKHGRHVEHORQJLQJWROLQHVVHOHFWHGIRUOLWWHUVL]HOLYHGORQJHUWKDQWKRVHVHOHFWHGIRU ZHLJKWJDLQ
7KHREMHFWLYHRIRXUSURMHFWZDVWRH[DPLQHDQGFRPSDUHWKHSURGXFWLRQRIGRHVRI GLIIHUHQWSURGXFWLYHOLIHLQRUGHUWRSURYHRUGLVSURYHWKHVWDWHPHQWVRXWOLQHGDERYH
0$7(5,$/6$1'0(7+2'
7KHLQYHVWLJDWLRQZDVFDUULHGRXWXVLQJ3DQQRQ:KLWHUDEELWVEHWZHHQDQG 7KHGRHVVHOHFWHGIRUWKHHYDOXDWLRQVZHUHDOOLQFOXGHGLQWKHKHUGERRNKDGDWOHDVWRQH OLWWHULQJDQGFRPSOHWHGWKHLUSURGXFWLYHOLIHE\WKHHQGRIWKHH[SHULPHQWDOSHULRGLH WKH\GLHGRUWKH\ZHUHFXOOHG
7KH GRHV ZHUH KRXVHG LQ FORVHG EXLOGLQJV ZLWK ZLQGRZV DQG DUWLILFLDO OLJKWLQJ 7KHVHZHUHKHDWHGLQZLQWHU&7KHIODWGHFNFDJHVZHUHPDGHRIZLUHQHW7KH GRHVZHUHILUVWEUHGDWWKHDJHRIPRQWKV7KH\ZHUHUHEUHGRQWKHUGWKGD\
DIWHUGHOLYHU\7KH\ZHUHIHGDFRPPHUFLDOGLHWDGOLELWXPFUXGHSURWHLQFUXGH ILEUHDQGZDWHUZDVDYDLODEOHFRQWLQXRXVO\IURPVHOIGULQNHUV
%DVHGRQWKHLUSURGXFWLYHOLIHWLPHWKHGRHVZHUHDOORWWHGWRJURXSVDVIROORZV
*URXS$ GRHVZLWKOLWWHUV
*URXS% GRHVZLWKOLWWHUV
*URXS& GRHVZLWKOLWWHUV
*URXS' GRHVZLWKPRUHWKDQOLWWHUV
,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHILUVWOLWWHULQJUHVXOWWKHGRHV¶SHUIRUPDQFHZDVDOVRDQDO\VHGIRU WKH VDPH SHULRG RI OLIH LH IRU OLWWHULQJV DQG LQ HDFK JURXS 7KH SHUIRUPDQFH GXULQJ WKH ILUVW VL[ PRQWKV ZDV DOVR HYDOXDWHG DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH WRWDO SURGXFWLYHOLIHRIWKHGRHVLHEHORZ\HDUDQGRYHU\HDUV
'DWDZHUHVXEMHFWHGWRVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVXVLQJRQHZD\DQDO\VLVRIYDULDQFHDQG FKLVTXDUHWHVWE\6WDWJUDSKLFVYHUV
5(68/76$1'',6&866,21
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
$VLPLODUWHQGHQF\HYROYHVZKHQSHUIRUPDQFHIRUWKHILUVWGHOLYHULHVLVFRPSDUHG 7DEOH,QWKHWUDLWVH[DPLQHGLHQXPEHURILQVHPLQDWLRQVIRURQHGHOLYHU\LQWHUYDO EHWZHHQWZRNLQGOLQJVOLWWHUVL]HDWELUWKDWGD\VRIDJHDQGDWZHDQLQJWRWDOOLWWHU ORVVDQGVXFNOLQJPRUWDOLW\OLWWHUZHLJKWDWELUWKDQGDWGD\VRIDJH*URXSV$DQG%
SURYHGWREHLQIHULRUZKLOH*URXSV&DQG'ZHUHVXSHULRUWRWKHRWKHUVLQPRVWFDVHV 5HJDUGLQJOLWWHUVL]HWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ*URXSV%DQG&ZDVVLJQLILFDQW3DQG ,Q ODWHU SHULRGV RI OLIH LH OLWWHULQJV DQG WKH GLIIHUHQFHV DFWXDOO\
GLVDSSHDUHGWKHRQO\H[FHSWLRQEHLQJWKDW*URXS'GLGH[WUHPHO\ZHOOFRQFHUQLQJWKH QXPEHURIGD\VUHTXLUHGIRURQHGHOLYHU\7KHVPDOO6'YDOXHIRXQGLQ*URXS'ZDV DOVRFRQVSLFXRXV
7DEOH
5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSHUIRUPDQFHDWILUVWGHOLYHU\DQGSURGXFWLYHOLIH 3URGXFWLYHOLIHEDVHGRQQXPEHURIOLWWHULQJV
$ % & '
3DUDPHWHUV 0HDQ
6' 0HDQ 6' 0HDQ 6' 0HDQ 6'
1XPEHURIGRHV
%RG\ZHLJKWRIGRHVDW
GHOLYHU\NJ
$JHRIGRHVDWILUVWGHOLYHU\
GD\V
1XPEHURILQVHPLQDWLRQVIRU
ILUVWGHOLYHU\
/LWWHUVL]HDWELUWK DE D E DE
/LWWHUVL]HDWGD\VRIDJH
/LWWHUVL]HDWZHDQLQJ
7RWDOOLWWHUORVV
6XFNOLQJPRUWDOLW\EHWZHHQ
ZHHNV
/LWWHUZHLJKWDWELUWKJ
/LWWHUZHLJKWDWGD\VRIDJH
J DE D DE E
0HDQVZLWKGLIIHUHQWOHWWHUVDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQW3$NO|QE|] EHW YHOMHO ]HWW FVRSRUWRN N|]|WWL HOWpUpV V]LJQLILNiQV 3 $ GRHV ZLWK OLWWHULQJV % GRHV ZLWKOLWWHULQJV& GRHVZLWKOLWWHULQJV' GRHVZLWKOLWWHULQJV$ %
& ' QpOW|EEDONDORPPDOILDOWDQ\iN
WiEOi]DWgVV]HIJJpVD]HOV ILDOiVWHOMHVtWPpQ\HpVD]pOHWWDUWDPN|]|WW
7XODMGRQViJ eOHWWDUWDP D ILDOiVRN V]iPD V]HULQW $Q\DQ\XODN V]iPD $Q\D Q\XODNV~O\DILDOiVNRU$Q\DQ\XODNNRUDD]HOV ILDOiVNRU(OV ILDOiVKR]V]NVpJHV WHUPpNHQ\tWpVHN V]iPD $ORPOpWV]iP V]OHWpVNRU QDSRV DORPOpWV]iP
$ORPOpWV]iPYiODV]WiVNRU7HOMHVDORPSXV]WXOiV6]RSyVHOKXOOiVpVKHWHVNRU N|]|WW$ORPV~O\V]OHWpVNRUQDSRVDORPV~O\ÈWODJ
%\JURXSLQJWKH GRHV EDVHG RQ WKHLU SURGXFWLYH OLIH LH EHORZ \HDU DQGRYHU\HDUVWKHUHODWLRQVKLSZLWKWKHGRHV¶SHUIRUPDQFHGXULQJWKHILUVWVL[
PRQWKVSURYHGPRUHXQDPELJXRXV WKDQ LQ WKH SUHYLRXVO\ GHVFULEHG HYDOXDWLRQV 7DEOH 2Q FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI OLWWHU VL]H WRWDO DW GD\V RI DJH DQG DW ZHDQLQJ VXFNOLQJ PRUWDOLW\DQGWKHQXPEHURIOLWWHULQJVGXULQJWKHILUVWVL[PRQWKVWKHVXSHULRULW\RIWKH GRHVUHPDLQLQJSURGXFWLYHIRUPRUHWKDQ\HDUVEHFRPHVHYHQPRUH FOHDUO\ RXWOLQHG 'XULQJWKHODWHUSHULRGRIOLIHWKHRUGHURIWKHJURXSVDOVRFKDQJHGKHUH
2XU ILQGLQJV DUH LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKH REVHUYDWLRQV UHSRUWHG E\7RUUHVHW DO DQGDQG5LQDOGRDQG%ROHW7RGUDZWKHFRQFOXVLRQWKDWSURGXFWLYH OLIHWLPHKDVDQ\GLUHFWHIIHFWRQSHUIRUPDQFHDWHDUO\DJHZRXOGKRZHYHUEHLQFRUUHFW 7KHSRLQWLQWKLVLVVXHLVPRVWOLNHO\WKDWWKH\RXQJGRHVZKRDUHKHDOWK\DQGRIJRRG
FRQVWLWXWLRQDUHDEOHWRSHUIRUPDERYHWKHDYHUDJHDQGQDWXUDOO\LWLVWKHVHLQGLYLGXDOV ZKLFKDOVRUHPDLQLQSURGXFWLRQIRUDORQJHUWLPH
7DEOH
5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSHUIRUPDQFHDQGSURGXFWLYHOLIHWLPH 1XPEHURIOLWWHULQJV
DERYH
3URGXFWLYH OLIHJURXSV
Q 0HDQ
6' Q 0HDQ 6' Q 0HDQ 6' Q 0HDQ 6' 1XPEHURILQVHPLQDWLRQVIRURQHGHOLYHU\
$
% DE
& D
' E
3 16 16
/LWWHULQJLQWHUYDOGD\V
$
%
&
'
3 16 16 16
/LWWHUVL]HDWELUWK
$ DE
% D
& E
' DE
3 16 16
/LWWHUVL]HDWGD\VRIDJH
$ DE
% D
& E
' DE
3 16 16
/LWWHUVL]HDWZHDQLQJ
$ DE
% D
& E
' DE
3 16 16
7RWDOOLWWHUORVV
$
%
&
'
3 16 16 16
&RQWLQXHG
&RQWLQXHGIURPSUHYLRXVSDJH
6XFNOLQJPRUWDOLW\EHWZHHQGD\V
$
%
&
'
3 16 16 16
/LWWHUZHLJKWDWELUWKJ
$ DE
% D
& E
' DE
3 16 16
/LWWHUZHLJKWDWGD\VRIDJHJ
$
%
&
'
3 16 16 16
0HDQV ZLWK GLIIHUHQW OHWWHUV DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW )RU JURXSV $ % & DQG ' VHH 7DEOH.O|QE|] EHW YHO MHO]HWW iWODJRN N|]|WWL HOWpUpV V]LJQLILNiQV $%& pV ' FVRSRUWPHJQHYH]pVpWOiVGD]WiEOi]DWQiO
WiEOi]DW$]DQ\DQ\XODNpOHWWDUWDPDpVWHUPHOpVHN|]|WWL|VV]HIJJpV
eOHWWDUWDP FVRSRUWRN )LDOiVRN V]iPD (J\ ILDOiVKR] V]NVpJHV WHUPpNHQ\tWpVHN V]iPD )LDOiVRN N|]|WWL QDSRN V]iPD $ORPOpWV]iP V]OHWpVNRU QDSRV DORPOpWV]iP$ORPOpWV]iPYiODV]WiVNRU7HOMHVDORPSXV]WXOiV6]RSyVHOKXOOiV pVKHWHVNRUN|]|WW$ORPV~O\V]OHWpVNRUQDSRVDORPV~O\ÈWODJ
$ VLPLODU REVHUYDWLRQ ZDV DOVR PDGH LQ RWKHU H[SHULPHQWV 7KRVH GRHV ZKLFK EHFDPH SRVWSDUWXPSUHJQDQWRUWLPHVVKRZHGDERYHDYHUDJHUDLVLQJRIWKHLUSURJHQ\$OVR WKHGD\OLWWHUVL]HGD\OLWWHUZHLJKWDQGWKHGD\LQGLYLGXDOERG\ZHLJKWRIWKH SURJHQ\ZHUHDOOEHWWHUWKDQLQWKHFDVHRIWKHGRHVEUHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHVDPHSDWWHUQ EXWZKLFKGHOLYHUHGDWORQJHULQWHUYDOV6]HQGU 7KHGRHVLQVHPLQDWHGDUWLILFDOO\
GXULQJWKHQXUVLQJSHULRGDQGZKLFKEHFDPHSUHJQDQWSURGXFHGODUJHUOLWWHUVWKDQWKRVH ZKLFK EHFDPH SUHJQDQW RQO\ DIWHU WKH VHFRQG VHUYLFH DIWHU ZHDQLQJ6]HQGU HW DO 7KH GRHV ERUQ DQG UHDUHG LQ OLWWHUV ODUJHU WKDQ VKRZHG DERYHDYHUDJH SHIRUPDQFHLQVSLWHRIWKHWHQGHQF\LQVPDOOHUOLWWHUVWKDWSURGXFWLRQEHFDPHUHGXFHGLQ SDUDOOHOZLWKDQLQFUHDVHLQWKHVL]HRIWKHOLWWHULQZKLFKWKHGRHVZHUHERUQ6]HQGU HW DO7RWDOOLWWHUORVVZDVOHVVIUHTXHQWLQWKHFDVHRIWKHGRHVSURGXFLQJODUJHOLWWHUV WKDQLQWKHFDVHRIEHORZDYHUDJHOLWWHUVL]H6]HQGU DQG%DUQD
7R VXPPDULVH RXU H[SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV FRQILUP WKDW GRHV SHUIRUPLQJ DERYH DYHUDJHIRUWKHILUVWGHOLYHULHVRUGXULQJWKHILUVWVL[PRQWKVVSHQWLQSURGXFWLRQDUH FRQVWLWXWLRQDOO\VXSHULRUDQGWKHUHIRUHWKH\UHPDLQSURGXFWLYHIRUDORQJHUWLPH
7DEOH
&RPSDULVRQRIWKHSURGXFWLRQRIGRHVUHPDLQLQJSURGXFWLYHIRUGLIIHUHQWSHULRGV GRHV¶SHUIRUPDQFHGXULQJWKHILUVWVL[PRQWKV
7LPHVSHQWLQSURGXFWLRQ\HDUV
EHORZ RYHU
3URGXFWLYHWUDLWV 0HDQ
6' 0HDQ 6' 0HDQ 6' 0HDQ 6' 0HDQ 6'
1XPEHURINLQGOLQJV
/LWWHUVL]H
DWELUWK D D DE EF F
DWGD\VRIDJH D DE EF FG G
DWZHDQLQJ D E E E F
6XFNOLQJPRUWDOLW\WR
WDOOLWWHUORVVLQFOXGHG D E E DE E 1XPEHURIOLWWHULQJVIRU
WKHILUVWVL[PRQWKV
9DOXHV ZLWK GLIIHUHQW VXSHUVFULSWV ZLWKLQ WKH VDPH URZ GLIIHU E\ 3 $] HOWpU EHW YHOMHO]HWWFVRSRUWRNN|]|WWLNO|QEVpJV]LJQLILNiQV3
WiEOi]DW$NO|QE|] LGHLJWHUPHO DQ\DQ\XODNWHOMHVtWPpQ\H
7XODMGRQViJ 7HUPHOpVEHQ W|OW|WW LG pY )LDOiVRN V]iPD $ORPOpWV]iP 6]OHWpVNRUQDSRVNRUEDQ9iODV]WiVNRU6]RSyVHOKXOOiVEHOHpUWYHDWHOMHV DORPSXV]WXOiVWLV(OV KyQDSDODWWLILDOiVRNV]iPDÈWODJ
5()(5(1&(6
5LQDOGR ' %ROHW * (IIHFW RI VHOHFWLRQ IRU OLWWHU VL]H DW ZHDQLQJ RQ UHSURGXFWLYHOLIHRIIHPDOHUDEELWVWK:RUOG5DEELW&RQJUHVV%XGDSHVW 6]HQGU =V$QRWHRQWKHHIIHFWRISRVWSDUWXPEUHHGLQJRQGRHSURGXFWLYLW\
-$SSO5DEELW5HV
6]HQGU =V%DUQD-6RPHIDFWRUVDIIHFWLQJPRUWDOLW\RIVXFNOLQJDQGJURZLQJ UDEELWVUG:RUOG5DEELW&RQJUHVV5RPH
6]HQGU =V%LUy1pPHWK(5DGQDL,,QYHVWLJDWLRQRQWKHUHVXOWVRIDUWLILFLDO LQVHPLQDWLRQ-$SSO5DEELW5HV
6]HQGU =V/iQJ06]DEy-5HSURGXFWLYHDELOLW\RIUDEELWGRHVLQUHODWLRQWR WKHLUELUWKOLWWHUVL]H-$SSO5DEELW5HV
7RUUHV&3OD0*DUFLD)1LYHOGHUHSXHVWDHQHOWLHPSRDXQ FRQWURO GH VHJXLPHQWRVDQLWDULRHQFRQHMRV;,6\PS&XQLFXOWXUH$VVHVFX
7RUUHV & *DUFHV 0 )DEDGR ) 3OD 0 &DXVDV GH HOLPLQDFLyQ GH UHSURGXFWRUHV HQ IXQFLyQ GH OtQHD \ pSRFD ;,, 6\PS &XQLFXOWXUH $VVHVFX
&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRUOHYHOH]pVLFtP
=VROW6]HQGU
3DQQQRQ8QLYHUVLW\RI$JULFXOWXUH)DFXOW\RI$QLPDO6FLHQFH +.DSRVYiU32%R[
3DQQRQ$JUiUWXGRPiQ\L(J\HWHPÈOODWWHQ\pV]WpVL.DU .DSRVYiU3I
7HO)D[
HPDLOSRKQO#DWNNDSRVYDUSDWHKX
