Emigration

Demography: a latent threat

Diagnosis

Th e emigration is determining the de-mographic processes in the Republic of Moldova. Th e development of this phenom-enon depends on the “attraction/rejection”

factors, which are mainly of economic na-ture. Th e key determinant of emigration is still the income gap between the Republic of Moldova and the countries, receiving Moldovan emigrants. Despite the fact that the real salary in Moldovan economy is growing, the diff erence between the level of labour remuneration is still too wide to reverse the emigrants’ fl ow. Furthermore, establishment of social safety nets allows to lower the emigration risks and costs and fa-cilitates new cases of emigration. Over one third of interviewed emigrants declared that the decision to emigrate had been mostly determined by the fact that they had some acquaintances in the destination countries.

Diff erent sources estimate the number of Moldovan emigrants between 300 and 600 thousand people. Even the estimations made on the basis of thorough sociological surveys should be interpreted with certain precaution. Th e emigration is mainly an ille-gal phenomenon. In addition, as they either receive or send money back home, many re-spondents tend to hide the real information about emigration. At the same time, given that the emigration phenomenon has al-ready reached a great extent, it is very likely that many families have emigrated for good, and simply don’t get into the sample of in-terviewees.

Regardless of the real number of emi-grants, it seems that the emigration process hasn’t yet depleted its potential. If they had the opportunity, about 27% of Moldovan citizens would emigrate “for sure” within three months, and 15% - would “rather” em-igrate⁷². Emigration will also persist in the nearest future because, unlike the fi rst waves of emigrants, driven by the desire to earn a minimum revenue, at present more and more young people emigrate, looking for the same economic and social opportunities as the ones enjoyed by European citizens. Th e

existing surveys, that confi rm these trends, suggest that in 2004-2006 the number of emigrants increased by at least 20%⁷³. At the same time, because of the extreme depen-dence of the economy on the weather con-ditions (see the impact of the 2007 drought, analyzed in REAL ECONOMY section), there is a possibility for the emigration to increase among the people who have never intended to emigrate before.

At present, the emigration of the Mol-dovan population is quite diversifi ed in terms of its form, type and social segments included. If prior to early 1990’s of the XX century the emigration was mainly oriented towards the East, then at present the Western direction tends to become more important.

Th e people that emigrate to the East tend to be concentrated in several metropolises in Russia and Ukraine, which poses some political risks (see SPECIAL TOPIC: RE-CONSIDERING THE RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA). In the West, the emigrants are spread in several Mediterranean coun-tries. Th ough Moldovans form diasporas in all countries of destination, the absorption of Moldovan people into the local popula-tion is becoming more dominating.

Th rough the remittances, the emigra-tion served as an important survival instru-ments, directly saving the poor population that remained without any sources of liveli-hood (see LIVING STANDARDS). At the same time, the emigration is infl uencing the demographic situation. Th e most negative consequence is the defi nitive disintegration of many families through formal or informal divorce (when one of the spouses has emi-grated for a long period or time or for good).

At the same time, due to emigration there is an increase in the number of children, who live separated from one or both parents. Th e family, as a fundamental social institution, was deeply shaken by the emigration (this situation is described in FAMILY CRISIS).

Demography: a latent threat

Th e fact that over 40% of all emigrants are women is crucially important from a de-mographic perspective. Moreover, women tend to emigrate for longer periods of time than men. Women have a bigger share in the cohort of emigrants that leave for a longer period of time on the Western direction, reaching 60%. It is also relevant the fact that about 65% of the emigrants come from rural areas, thus diminishing the country’s demo-graphic reproduction potential.

Th ough emigration is specifi c for the entire country, the survey suggest that in some regions this phenomenon is especially intense, and the social consequences are se-verer. According to some data, in Gagauzia there are 25 emigrants per 100 inhabitants.

Perhaps it is not by chance that this region has the highest divorce rate in the country, the statistical data revealing over 80 divorc-es per 100 marriagdivorc-es in 2006. In 2003 the di-vorce rate exceeded 100%, with 1620 offi cial marriages and 1936 divorces!

Risks

Th e main emigration-related demo-graphic risk is the disruption of the people’s reproductive potential and the erosion of the family institution. Th e State doesn’t make any consistent steps to organize the legal emigration. Th e illegal emigration de-prives our citizens of any social, political or economic right. Th e emigration stimulates

the depopulation process through the de-parture of young people. At the same time, the emigration has other types of demo-graphic eff ects, being associated with the traffi cking in human beings. Th e high ex-tent of the traffi cking of women leaves deep moral and psychical traces on victims (see the iconic eff ects of traffi cking in HOW WE ARE SEEN IN THE WORLD). As a rule, the traffi cked women are not willing to es-tablish their own family. One in three traf-fi cked women is divorced or doesn’t want to establish a family. Only 10% of them would like to have a family at a certain point in the future, as revealed by the studies conducted by the International Organisation for Mi-gration.

Governmental policies

Th e Republic of Moldova Government doesn’t have any instruments to infl uence directly the emigration processes. Th e Gov-ernment should mainly intervene in the le-galization of the emigrants, who are already abroad, in order to bring them under social and legal protection and provide appropriate information to people whishing to emigrate.

Th e Government should also approach very fi rmly the illegal phenomena associated with emigration, fi rstly the traffi cking in human beings. Th e trends of intensifying the immigration control policies by the EU countries will only strengthen even more the illegal emigration from Moldova and will not impact signifi cantly the total fl ows of emigrants. Unfortunately, the 2008-2011 National Development Plan doesn’t clearly refl ect any method for combating the traf-fi cking and illegal migration. It stipulates only some general issues, without indicat-ing any way of stoppindicat-ing this phenomenon.

It stipulates neither the aspects and methods of fi nancial sustainability of social insurance policies nor any concrete economic oppor-tunities for the vulnerable segments of the population.

Recommendations

Obviously, in the long run the emigration will cease only when modern living and working conditions are ensured, similarly to those seen by Moldovan people in European countries. Or, emigration is not a problem in itself, it is the re-sult of other problems. Th rough its policies, the

Source: „Labour market in the Republic of Moldova. Quarterly issue”, NBS, www.statistica.md.

Figure 15 Number of people declared as working or looking for a job abroad, thousands

Demography: a latent threat

Government should aim not only at reversing or ceasing the emigration, but also at creating an environment of economic and social opportuni-ties, where citizens could use their entire creative potential. Th e fact that the Moldovan citizens are ready to assume huge risks related to the illegal emigration prove that these people actually want to control their own live and show remarkable courage in this respect. Th ese abilities of assu-ming risks and responsibilities should be chan-nelled in such a way to enable them to start up private economic initiatives in the country.

At the same time, the Government and NGOs should inform better the population about the personal (traffi cking, harassment, lack of social and legal protection) and social risks (family disintegration, child abandonment) associated with the illegal emigration. On the other hand, the national NGOs that have enough human and technical resources, in cooperation with some foreign ones, should start a campaign of iden-tifying and informing the parents, who are ab-road, about the situation of their children. Th is

will help the family reintegration, either in the Republic of Moldova or abroad. Th e family rein-tegration outweigh the fi nancial costs of such an international informational campaign.

Using effi cient legal and police instruments, the Government should limit as much as possible the chances of national and transnational cri-minal groups of traffi ckers to attract Moldova citizens in illegal emigration schemes. Th e acti-vities should mainly focus on the monitoring of the activity of ghost travel agencies and dubious employment agencies.

Th e Government should get more involved in the extension of the overseas employment pos-sibilities, on a clearly defi ned contract basis, and regulate the social and legal protection of Moldovan citizens. Th e wide international col-laboration on legal employment of Moldovan citizens should be one of the main leverages of the emigration policy. Our citizens should feel themselves protected abroad, an issue which currently is not ensured at all.

Demography: a latent threat

Diagnosis

Th e internal migration has an impor-tant role for the territorial distribution of people in the Republic of Moldova. Th is phenomenon is mainly manifested through the movement of people on urban-urban (from small towns to Chisinau and Balti) and rural-urban directions. Th ough prior to early 1990’s the intense rural-urban mi-gration was determined by the accelerated economic development of urban localities and industrialization, in the period of eco-nomic reforms this process continued due to the accelerated economic and social deg-radation of rural localities. Th us, though 53% of the country’s inhabitants are living in rural localities, the rural health care fa-cilities employ only 14-15% of health staff . As revealed by some investigations, 65%

of rural inhabitants go shopping in big cit-ies, and 15% - in the rayon centres. Th e production means in agriculture are 2.5-3.0 times lower than in other economic sectors, specifi c for rural areas. Political thinking in the Republic of Moldova still dwells on the stereotype inherited from the Soviet period, that rural population would have less needs with respect to liv-ing conditions, cultural life, income level, quality of education and health services.

Th is stereotype determines making some policy decisions, which put rural residents in an un favourable position (for example, public investments’ allocation are made for projects, of which urban residents will benefi t fi rst of all).

Th e rural-urban migration is also a consequence of the demographic policies, pursued during the soviet period. During that period, the demographic moderniza-tion trends were inhibited to prevent the alteration of the agricultural appendix, at-tributed to the Republic of Moldova in the economic soviet system. When the admin-istrative barriers were removed, the rural-urban migration intensifi ed. Th e business mobility is mainly aff ected by the labour force migration, which tend to migrate to places with more attractive jobs. It is not a surprise the fact that the migration mainly

takes places as the movement of the young people from rural to urban localities for employment or education purposes, fol-lowed by permanent employment and settlement there, where the economic life is progressing (REAL ECONOMY sec-tion). Th e educational level of rural young people is increasing, but they cannot use it appropriately because of the narrow range of skills and craft s, demanded in the rural areas. A large share of the young people, who are studying in secondary special-ized or higher educational institutions in towns and cities, cannot and don’t want to go back to their native village, as they know from the very beginning that they will not be able to fi nd a job according to the specialty or craft they have acquired. If they do so, the education would be an eco-nomically unjustifi ed investment in their human capital.

Most young rural families passed to the modern reproductive pattern, with 1-2 children in the family. Th ough a big part of these families have retained their love for land and agriculture, they also undergo signifi cant economic, social, and mental changes. Th erefore we could expect for the rural-urban migration to become more in-tense when the economic development of urban localities enhances, providing more employment opportunities.

At present there isn’t any complex and updated statistical data about the internal migration, which would allow to monitor the time trends and analyze thoroughly this phenomenon. Th ough the consistent statistical data are lacking, the available data reveal that the internal migration phenomenon is still very intense, though it was signifi cantly substituted by the emi-gration. Th e 2004 census reveals that dur-ing two years prior to the census, the in-ternal migration balance was positive only for Chisinau municipality (+38.8 thousand people), Balti municipality (+4.5 thousand people) and Cahul rayon (+0.9 thousand people). In all other rayons, including Transnistria, the migration balance was negative.