a latent threat
2.1. The birth and mortality crisis
Demography: a latent threat
Th e conclusions of this chapter fully justify its name: the demographic developments are indeed a latent threat for the Republic of Moldova. So far, the demographic risks have not been considered seriously and no instruments have been developed for their management.
Th e changes in people’s reproductive behaviour, coupled with a high death rate, fostered a negative growth rate over the past decade. Th e natural factors were accompanied by the negative socio-economic factors, which generated a huge emigration and intensifi ed the depopulation process. Th e long-term emigration further damaged the family institution, including in the rural areas, intensifying the trend to increase the divorce rate and leaving many children to be raised in disintegrated families. Th e country’s demographic picture is not full without the phenomenon of internal rural-urban migration. Being a natural feature of the social and economic modernization, the internal migration further depresses the potential of demographic reproduction.
EVOLUTIONS: 2 SITUATION: 1 PERSPECTIVES: 2
64 The methodology, used by the Moldovan National Bureau of Statis-tics, diff erentiates between the present population and permanent population. The present population consists of the people, who are physically present on the territory of the Republic of Moldova at the moment of the census or annual calculations, including the tempo-rary domiciled people. The permanent population consists of the people, who have permanent residence in the Republic of Moldova, including those who are not temporarily in the country.
65 Centre for Demography and Human Ecology /Центр демографии и экологии человека Института народнохозяйственного про-гнозирования РАН/ „Страны СНГ переживают демографический кризис”, 2005.
“Demographic crisis” and “latent de-population” are terms, frequently used to describe the current demographic realities of the Republic of Moldova. Th e decreasing number of people is determined by the low birth rate, emigration and increased death rate, and the complex interaction of these factors accelerated even more the depopula-tion phenomenon. If on 1 January 1997 the number of people present64 in the Republic of Moldova (excluding the Transnistrian re-gion) amounted to 3657.3 thousand people, then on 1 January 2007 the number of inhab-itants amounted to 3581.1 thousand (Figure 6). During one decade only, the number of inhabitants decreased by 2.1%, in rural areas – by 0.5% and in urban areas – by 4.3%.
Like in other ex-soviet countries, the depopulation is generated by a complex combination of two categories of factors65. First, the Republic of Moldova is experi-encing a demographic transition, which started earlier than the economic transition and is characteristic for all European coun-tries. Th e demographic transition is also manifested through a diminished birth rate, which started to drop signifi cantly in mid 1980’s. Second, the demographic processes were infl uenced by the diffi culties specifi c for a period of economic transformations. It is diffi cult to estimate the quantitative eff ect of the transition on the demographic
indi-ces, but it seams that the peak was reached in mid 1990’s. During that period the life expectancy was lowest, the worsening of the situation being especially noticeable for men (Figure 7).
According to the census data and civil status statistics, the natural increase has
Source: Statistical yearbooks of the Republic of Moldova, 1990-2006
Figure 6 Evolution of the number of people present in the Republic of Moldova, thousand people (excluding Transnistria)
Demography: a latent threat
been constantly decreasing over the past 16 years, from 8.0‰ in 1990 down to 1.5 ‰ in 2006 (Figure 8). Th is was caused by the diminution of the birth rate, couple with the increase in the death rate. In general, a restricted demographic reproduction type was established since 1999, with deep trans-formations in people’s demographic struc-ture and numeric evolution. It is especially alarming that the rural areas, regarded till recently as the main source of the demo-graphic potential, also reached the incapaci-ty of demographic reproduction (Figure 9).
So far, the birth rate in the Republic of Moldova is a bit higher than in other transi-tion countries from Europe and Caucasus (10.5‰ against 9.8‰, as of 2004). Th us, the negative growth rate is explained by the very high death rates, even for the group of transition countries. Th e main cause of death are the disorders of the circulatory system, specifi c mainly for women (65.1%
of cases, against the 48.3% for men). Th e ac-cidents, poisonings and traumas are another important cause of death, especially among men (12.8%). In addition, the Republic of Moldova has the highest infant mortality rates. Th ough the infant mortality rate has decreased signifi cantly, from 22.4 cases per 1000 live births in 1994 down to 11.8 cases in 2006, this indicator is still high, if com-pared with the European average (6-7 cases per 1000 live births). For more details see PUBLIC HEALTH section.
Though the natural depopulation (manifested by the death rate exceeding the birth rate) is a key factor of the depopula-tion process, the infl uence of emigradepopula-tion, as a factor of mechanical depopulation, be-comes more and more visible, further un-dermining the people’s reproduction pro-cess (EMIGRATION section). Th e internal rural-urban migration, which started 25-30 years ago and is still intense, contributes to the diminution of the demographic repro-ductive potential by involving the groups of reproductive age (see INTERNAL MI-GRATION).
In parallel with the natural depopula-tion and emigradepopula-tion, and mainly due to these, a strong trend of population aging is noticed (Figure 10). If according to 1989 general census data, the average people’s age was 31.8 years, than in 2004 it was 35.3 years. Th e ratio between generations is di-minishing to the favour of the elderly, and this process accelerated since 2000.
Th e population aging index has ex-ceeded the critical limit over 15%66. Th us the demographic ageing takes place both
“horizontally” – less numerous new gen-erations, and “vertically” – higher average lifetime of people. If compared with 1997, the share of young people, under 14 years of age, decreased by 18.1%, or 283.4 thousand people. In addition, the share of people over 65 years of age increased from 9.3 to 10.2%,
Source: Statistical yearbooks of the Republic of Moldova, 1990-2006
Figure 7 Evolution of life expectancy in the Republic of Moldova, years
Source: Statistical yearbooks of the Republic of Moldova, 1990-2006
Figure 8 Evolution of the main indices of people’s reproduction
66 The population aging index (or coeffi cient) is calculated as the number of people aged 60 years or more to 100 inhabitants. Accor-ding to Bojo-Garnier scale, a population is regarded as aged if this index reaches 12%. When it reaches 15%, the situation is regarded as critical.
Demography: a latent threat or 29.5 thousand people. Th is phenomenon
could not be reversed in the short and medi-um term, even if the birth rate is improved.
Risks
Th ough most of the European coun-tries encounter demographic problems, the high speed and deepness of this phenome-non in the Republic of Moldova poses huge risks in the long run. According to UN forecasts, by 2050 the number of people in our country could drop down to 2.8 mil-lion inhabitants67. Once started, it is very diffi cult to reverse the demographic crisis.
Its long term implications are very seri-ous, as people are the main resource of our country. Th e external demographic pres-sures will also increase in the long run. Th e Republic of Moldova is actively entering a new phase, and it cannot be considered an area with demographic reserves any more.
On the contrary, the shortage of human potential will become more acute and the people’s genetic fund will be endangered.
Th e shortage of human resources is already felt in some economic sectors, as well as in a number of geographic areas.
Th e age structure of the population is also marked by an alert demographic ag-ing process. Th e structure of adults by age and gender also changed signifi cantly. Th e number of people over 80 years of age con-tinues to increase, with important social and economic implications. If the “young-er” groups of the elderly are still economi-cally active and can earn their living, the
“very old” people, especially women, de-pend on others. Th is will increase the ex-penditures for providing social support to the elderly. Th e situation will worsen by 2010-2015, when the generations born during 1948-1950 will reach the retire-ment age, their number being 2-3 times bigger than of the previous generations.
Th e continuously increasing number of el-derly people will need state support under the social protection system (see SOCIAL PROTECTION POLICIES). Th is prob-lem is worsen even more unless the oc-cupational and social policies are adjusted to the increasing lifetime period and the labour productivity increases quickly (LA-BOUR MARKET section).
Governmental policies
It is diffi cult to develop a pro-natal-ity demographic policy in a country with a shortage of fi nancial resources, as the de-mographic policies are very costly. Th e in-volution of demographic indices cannot be corrected unless the main social and eco-nomic parameters – level of revenues, ac-cess to health services, equality of changes – are improved. It is not surprising that the Republic of Moldova doesn’t have a proper demographic policy and still used the fi
-Source: Statistical yearbooks of the Republic of Moldova, 1990-2006
Figure 9 Evolution of the natural increase by areas of residence, ‰
Source: Statistical yearbooks of the Republic of Moldova, 1995, 2006
Figure 10 Population aging index
67 „World Population Prospects: the 2006 Revision Population Database”, UN Population Division.
Demography: a latent threat
nancial instruments inherited from the old political system, which don’t meet the new demographic challenges any more. At pres-ent, the monthly child allowances don’t cov-er even 30% of the real expenditures for the maintenance of a child. Th e monthly child allowances, off ered for children till 1.5-3.0 years, barely cover 10% of the minimum consumer basket.
Recommendations
It is not possible to develop demographic polici-es without fundamental rpolici-esearchpolici-es and demo-graphic forecasts for medium and long term.
For this, it is necessary to establish a university centre or NGO, specialized in demographic is-sues that would make complex researches of the demographic phenomena. At the same time, it is necessary to assure a transparent functioning of the National Committee for People and Deve-lopment.
Th e desire to make a career and the tough con-ditions on the labour market made many young women to postpone or even give up on having children. Th erefore, in parallel with promoting the women’s reproductive role in the society, it is necessary to assure a social and economic equi-ty, fi rstly equality of salaries and changes of pro-fessional promotion between men and women.
Aft er the delivery, women should have the pos-sibility to return to the same function, with the previous or even higher salary. Th e state should cover the share of the salary that is not tempora-rily assured by the labour productivity.
In the short run, the growth rate can be brou-ght to positive values only if the death rate is reduced under the birth rate. As the birth rate will continue to drop in the nearest future, the death rate should decrease rapidly as to com-pensate the negative eff ects. Th is is possible by improving the health care system and educating an appropriate attitude of people for their health and lives, especially in young people.
Th e diminution of the infant death rate has a high potential to reduce the overall death rate.
At present, the infant death rate is twice as big as the European average. In particular, the infant death rate induced by infectious and breathing diseases is especially high. To improve this si-tuation it is not enough only to enhance the mother and child health system, by monitoring the health status during the pre- and post-natal period, but it is also necessary to recover the bad environmental situation (see section HUMAN IMPACT ON ENVIRONMENT).
A large share of deaths of infants and children under the age of 5 is caused by the insuffi cient knowledge of mothers. As pregnant women are not properly informed about possible risks and the lifestyle they should have during pregnancy, many children die under the age of 5 because of congenital malformations. One quarter of in-fant deaths occur out of the hospital. It is also suggestive the fact that the Republic of Moldova has one of the highest infant death rate through accidents and poisonings.
It is necessary to adopt a pro-natality demo-graphic policy and introduce higher fi nancial allowances for families that give birth to two or more children. It is not recommendable to diff erentiate the allowances by the living envi-ronment or other criteria in order to avoid any possible speculations. Th e monthly child bene-fi ts, off ered till the age of 1.5 years, should least equal the annual average salary, both in the pu-blic and private sectors. Starting with the second birth, the monthly benefi ts should be doubled and off ered till the age of 3 years.
Moldova should get prepared to cope with a more acute ageing of its population. Th is trend will request that the health care system be ad-justed to the needs of the elderly. Th e pension system will also need to be reformed. Th e sus-tainability of this system is endangered by the high number of emigrants, who might return back home when they get older. Th e increasing demographic pressure on the economically acti-ve population will call for higher income taxes.
To outweigh somehow these negative trends, it is necessary to extend as much as possible the duration of the economically active life of the elderly and set up a life-long training and edu-cation system.
In spite of the decreasing birth rate in the rural areas, there are still some reserves there for the long term reproduction of people. Th is will not be possible unless the demographic indicators improve in the rural areas, rural areas become more attractive for young people in economic terms and the social infrastructure for proper life (health care, cultural and educational insti-tutions) is established. Hence, the long-term de-mographic policy could have chances only in the context of a sustainable rural development.
Demography: a latent threat
Diagnosis
Th e family is the primary unit of a human society, having a fundamental economic, so-cial, and demographic importance. Its main functions are to assure the human continu-ity, form and develop the intellectual, moral, spiritual and physical skills of the young generation, convey the adults’ life experi-ence and maintain the accumulated wealth.
In the Republic of Moldova, the economic and demographic transition has caused es-sential transformation to the family institu-tion. If there are high gaps between the local death and birth rates and the European ones, then there is a convergence in case of fami-lies - malefi c indeed - towards the “European model” of families, a trend which poses a de-mographic disadvantage for the country.
Th us, the process of family shrinking has accelerated. If in 30 years (1959-1989), the average number of persons in a family went down from 3,8 to 3,4 persons, in the following 18 years (1990-2007), the num-ber of persons decreased, practically, by the same, reaching 3,1 persons. In 1970 the number of two-people families accounted for 26%, whereas in 2004 this share reached 31%. Th e share of families with one or two children is also increasing. Th us, if in 1989 such families accounted for over 83% of all families, then in 2004 they accounted for 86.5%. Th is is accounted for by a persistent tendency to postpone child birth, as a reac-tion to the unfavourable social economic en-vironment. Th e public perceptions confi rm this assertion: 33% of citizens believe that at present the conditions that might stimulate young people to give birth to children are “a little more unfavourable” if compared with one year ago, and 14% claim they are “much more unfavourable”68.
Th e second tendency, which is becom-ing poignant, is the growbecom-ing number of children born outside marriage (Figure 11).
Obviously, the number of unmarried moth-ers is not increasing highly, as in the current socio-economic context the decision to give birth to a child in a one-parent family would be very diffi cult to explain. Th e dynamics in
the number of children of unwed parents re-veal the essential changes in the lifestyle dur-ing the pre-marriage period, the extramari-tal relationships becoming more popular69. At the 2004 census, 57 thousand men and 60 thousand women reported being “unoffi cial-ly married”. Th e fact that children are born not by unmarried mothers, but in unoffi cial marriages doesn’t mean that the family re-lationships are strong, but the opposite. Th e erosion of the family relationships is also ob-served in the public perceptions. Over 39%
of citizens declare that “the family relation-ships seem to have worsened during the past decade”, and 22% - that “the family relation-ships have severely deteriorated”70.
Another important development is the increase of the marriage age. If in 1990, 35% of women were getting married under the age of 20 years, then in 2006 this share dropped down to 25%. Conversely, the share of marriages at the age of 25-29 years increased signifi cantly (Figure 12). Th e long term consequence of this change is the