as well as research and policy documents, which influenced their formulation, were analyzed in three alpine countries on a national and sub national level (Austria and Tyrol, Germa- ny and Bavaria, Switzerland and Grisons). In a qualitative content analysis policy documents and research reports were analysed according to the major challenges ofclimate changes for the natural hazard management as well as pos- sible solutions mentioned in the reports. While in Grisons and Bavaria first examples of adaptations plans were devel- oped rather early (2003, 2000), the responsible actors needed more time on the national level (Germany 2008, Switzerland 2011, Austria 2012). Tyrol has neither a climatechange mitigation nor a adaptation strategy. In the early plans a strong tendency can be observed to reduce uncer- tainty. Bavaria e.g. developed a so called climatechange factor of 15%, which must be added to the normal design event. Especially the national plans rely more on flexible and adaptive strategies, which do not cause a fundamental short-term change in the existing natural hazard manage- ment. In all countries spatial planning is seen to have a cen- tral role for climatechange adaptation due to its role as intersectoral coordinator and moderator. This might be in conflict with the strict top-down land use regulations (haz- ard zones) which are enforced by forestry and water agen- cies.
Using UnTRIM we carried out four different simulations for each estuary: MQ_0, SoMNQ_0, MQ_80, and SoMNQ_80. First we generated a reference state (MQ_0) that represents today’s conditions in an idealised way. At the seaward boundary we force the model with water levels extracted from a simulation with a NorthSea model. The NorthSea model was driven by the astronomic tidal signal during two spring neap cycles in the period 7 July 2006 till 4 August 2006 (period of simulation time). No external surge and no wind stress are included in the model simulations. Salinity at the seaward boundary is prescribed to the constant value of 32 PSU. The freshwater discharge at the weir is set constant to the mean measured freshwater discharge MQ (Table 1). To be independent of initial conditions the model simulation is repeated in loops over several periods of simulation time until the hydrodynamic conditions and the brackish water zone have reached a state of equilibrium.
maize, rice is increasingly often sown. Maize plants grow well in the floods, but the harvest is poor. Rice seed (paddy go- rah), on the other hand, flourished last year; as a result, some villagers are considering terracing and irrigation systems. Maize is still cultivated on higher ground. Green beans are also central to food security. In the last few year, the beans planted in the rainy season either drowned in the floods or were destroyed by sediments or salt water. To prevent this happening again, the villagers are planting a fast-growing bean variety at the start of and during the rainy season in areas less affected by flooding. They can harvest these plants before the first floods, so protecting them from sediments. The women describe diversification of varieties in fruit and vegetable production. Fruit varieties which grow on tall plants or trees, such as bananas, coconuts and sugar cane, are becoming more important. Vegetables do not survive the floods, so they are only grown during the rainy season by farmers whose land is located higher up, and in the dry sea-
Estuaries form a major transition zone between land and sea with steep gradients in energy and physicochemical properties (Jennerjahn and Mitchell, 2013). Variable and fluctuating salinity is the principal stressor estuarine organisms have to cope with (Odum, 1988; McLusky and Elliott, 2004). Estuarine flood plains are affected by disturbance, such as floods and storms (Mitsch and Gosselink, 2000), and are characterized by two major environmental gradients: the salinity gradient and the flooding gradient. Abiotic stress and disturbance become more severe with increasing salinity and flooding from high to low elevation in estuarine flood plains (Engels and Jensen (2009). Estuarine organisms have to cope with natural disturbances and with effects of increasing pressures due to climatechange, human activities and extreme events (Jennerjahn and Mitchell, 2013). In subtropical and tropical climate, mangroves are daily subjected to tidal changes in water and salt exposure and their typical plant species are adapted to live under these harsh conditions (Alongis, 2008). In temperate climate, life characteristics of riparian willows can be interpreted as adaptations to the flood plain environment, which also contribute to high genetic variability and predispose hybridization (Karrenberg et al., 2002). In general, local adaptations can be caused by small scale differences in the environment (Lipowsky et al., 2011). Whether this is also the case in willow species with different origin from flood plains along estuarine salinity gradients has not yet been investigated.
The data generated within the framework of coastDat delivers a long, consistent and homogenous as possible description of the NorthSea wave climate, which is important to investigate and understand the climate variability in data sparse regions, like the NorthSea. Wave data that are generated within these climatechange and hindcast simulations are available to external clients and are used for a variety of offshore and coastal purpos- es. For instance during the planning and design phase of offshore wind farms wave data from the hindcast are used to calculate return values of extreme events and to estimate time windows for certain wave conditions that are necessary for construction and maintenance. The wave data is also used by ship yard companies to optimize the ship profiles. For details see W EISSE et al. (2009). Beside a regular update of the hindcast simulation, in the future, simulations with higher resolution, which is important for near- coastal applications are planned.
Drainage systems and sluices without pumps rely on a gradient in the water level. Further- more, harbour facilities cannot operate when water levels are very high. Locks and flood barriers are closed during storm surges, thus restricting shipping. If a 24-hour period of reference scenario SF76 in Hamburg is considered, water levels higher than 3.00 m above mean sea level occur for a total of 11.5 hours. This period increases by around 30 minutes if the sea level rises by 25 cm, by 5 hours if the sea level rises by 80 cm and by around 6 hours if the sea level rises by 115 cm.
As a gateway between ground and sea transportation, and as a business location for service and industry, ports are of great significance for the regional and national economy. At the same time, port structures are located in regions threatened by storms and rising sea levels. Due to highly interdependent value chains, weather related disruptions in port operation can cause serious economic damage. Thus, adaptation to possible climate impacts seems like an obvious task for port authorities. What can be said about the climate vulnerability for German Baltic port locations? Regional Economic Importance ofGerman Baltic Sea Ports In 2010, the ports along the German Baltic Sea coast moved goods with a volume of 54.6 million tons. This volume corresponds to 6% of the entire international trade in Germany. Although the contribution of Baltic Sea ports to the total international trade is comparatively small, these ports play an essential role for the German economy as a hub for goods transported to and from north-eastern Europe. As opposed to the container oriented NorthSea ports, the German Baltic Sea ports are predominantly characterised by ferry and Ro/ Ro services, and by the transportation of mass goods. In 2010, 51% of the total cargo handling was allotted to the transportation of vehicles and 36% related to mass goods. Transportation of containers in German Baltic Sea ports is at 4% only of minor significance. The most important types of goods are agricultural and silvicultural goods, petroleum products, and construction materials.
The length of numerical simulations carried out can be kept short since estuarine processes respond rapidly to changes in external conditions. The response time of mor- phodynamic processes is an exception. The simulation of long-term morphodynamic processes, however, is associated with a high degree of uncertainty. The models require further development in order to produce feasible results. This is one reason why we keep the bathymetry static in all simulations. This does mean, however, that we do not take account of the feedback processes connected to morphodynamic processes. For example, the sensitivity study that explores the effects ofsea level rise implies an increased transport of sediments from the NorthSea into the estuaries due to sea level rise. This means more sediment is deposited in the estuaries. To ensure safety and efficient naviga- tion more dredging effort might be the consequence. Based on the assumption of no dredging activities, more deposition would lead to shallower water depths. The water depth, in turn, influences tidal dynamics and thereby sediment transport. Long-term morphodynamic simulations will be needed in future studies in order to include the feed- back processes associated with morphodynamic processes.
A sensitivity study is used to identify areas along the estuariesof Elbe, Jade-Weser and Ems, which are vulnerable in case of storm surges and climatechange. In a second step the efficacy of several adapta- tion measures is investigated. Advantages and disadvantages of the adaptation measures can be identified. The results give the chance to develop an adaptation route for the waterways in the estuariesof Elbe, Jade-Weser and Ems in order to mitigate the problems caused by climatechange.
FNMC funds are used to provide reimbursable financial support through the granting of loans by the operator agent, and non-reimbursable financial support for projects related to the mitigation ofclimatechange or adaptation to climatechange and its effects, approved by the FNMC Managing Committee, as per the guidelines previously established by the Committee. The definition of resources to be invested in each of the modalities is up to the Committee, and this application may be used in projects that address, inter alia: GHG emission reduction projects; adaptation of society and of ecosystems to global climatechange impacts; reduction of carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, with priority given to natural areas threatened with destruction and important for biodiversity conservation strategies; sustainable production chains; payments for environmental services to communities and individuals whose activities verifiably contribute towards carbon storage; agroforestry systems that contribute towards a reduction in deforestation and the absorption of carbon by sinks and towards income generation; and the recovery of degraded areas and forest restoration.
0.03 0.06 0.09
Germany: WLS on positive changes with recent export shares as weights
Figure 4: The directedness of technological change in Greece and Germany. While export expansions in Germany are positively correlates with product complexity, the inverse holds for Greece. The size and color of the points represent the average share of the products in the countries’ export basket in 2012-2014. The regression line stems from the WLS estimation as described above. Dashed lines illustrate the estimation errors. Data: Atlas of Economic Complexity (2018) in its 12-2017 version (see data appendix for details); own calculations.
A high-resolution study of marine environmental conditions and changes through the Late Holocene (2,700 years) in the eastern North Atlantic realm is presented. In order to contribute new knowledge about the NorthSea region, the faunal distribution, fluxes of benthic and planktonic foraminifera and grain-size data were analysed from a gravity core (GeoB 6003-2) from the Skagerrak. The data indicate environmental changes (i.e. stability and productivity) both in the bottom and surface waters. Major shifts, recorded at around 2200, 1900, 1500, 1200 and 400 cal yr BP, are interpreted as climatic changes. The resulting intervals are linked to well-known historical epochs such as the Subatlantic Pessimum, the Roman Period, the Migration Period, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. The benthic foraminiferal flux indicates that highly productive phases are generally connected with relatively cool climates. Moreover, the planktonic foraminiferal flux reflects a decreasing influence ofNorth Atlantic surface water masses since the end of the Migration Period at around 1200 cal yr BP.
Higher values were measured only on the northern side where erosion seems to prevail. Here the ongoing attack of especially the ebb current has sculptured a very steep slope along the Tertius sandbank. In this context, the existence of an underwater ledge in the lower slope of the bank is noteworthy. Results of different hydro-acoustic measurements show that this ledge is associated with a cuesta-like outcrop of cohesive sediment beds (Upper Klei). In our opinion the formation of this inconsistency in the slope indicates that the consolidated layers prevent an even stronger displacement of the slope. The obvious question, whether this bank erosion results from a widening or from a northward migration of the channel, can not be answered on the basis of the available data. Thus, the interpretation of Fig. 17 does not permit any statement concerning a net deposition on the southern side of the cross-section which would be an argument in favour of channel migration. However, the morphological setting in that area is so complex that nearby deposition balancing the erosion due to channel migra- tion can not be excluded. Unfortunately the quality of the digital elevation models to some extent suffers from the presence of megaripples (dunes) in this area. Due to the high natural variability of these bedforms, the uncertainty imparted by the bedforms on successive DEMs can add up to produce a purely numerical patchiness in erosional and depositional trends. This could mask any real bathymetric trends. Despite these uncertainties and considering the complexity of the morphological evolution of this cross-section, we are nevertheless confi- dent that we can recognize a pattern suggesting erosion in autumn / winter and deposition in spring / summer. However, in some cases, e. g. between August and November 2002, the observed morphological changes do not match this seasonal cycle.
Nonetheless, future sea level rise remains highly uncertain. Important sources of uncertainty are the dynamics of large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica and the interaction between mean sea level, extreme water levels, and storm characteristics (Seneviratne et al. 2012). The Fourth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) (AR4) projects sea level rise to range between 0.18 and 0.38 m for the B1 scenario of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and between 0.26 and 0.59 m for the A1FI scenario by the end of the century (Meehl et al. 2007). These projections mostly reflect the effect of thermal expansion of seawater and do not account for the instability and potentially large discharges from the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets which could add a further 10 to 20 cm to sea level rise projections by the end of the century. The AR4 also acknowledged that a larger contribution could not be ruled out. Since the publication of the Assessment Report 4 (AR4) by the IPCC, several studies using statistical methods to relate observed variations in global sea levels and global temperature, suggest that global mean sea level rise could be higher than what was described in the AR4. For instance, Kopp et al. (2009) suggest that, during the Emian period, when climatic conditions and ice sheet configurations were comparable with present ones, global sea level might have risen by 6-9 m above the present level, because of extensive melting of the ice sheets as a response to a global mean warming of 1–2°C. According to Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) and Rahmstorf (2007) the AR4 climatechange scenario range is consistent with 0.5 to 1.9 m ofsea level rise for the 21 st Century. Pfeffer et al. (2008) use a model of glaciers to conclude that if a 2m increase in sea level by 2100 could occur under extreme assumptions then an increase of 0.8m is likely in any case. Overpeck and Weiss, (2009) conclude that sea level rise could exceed 1 m by 2100. In addition, observed sea level rise has been following a trajectory close to the upper bound of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES; Nakicenovic 2000) scenarios that include land ice uncertainty (Cazenave and Nerem 2004). Sea level rise can interact with mid-latitude storms and tropical cyclones, exacerbating water level increases, waves, erosion, and the risk of flood and defense failures (Nicholls et al. 2007). However, the evidence connecting global warming and storms remains uncertain, although some studies found that warming could increase the intensity of tropical storms (Meehl et al. 2007; Emanuel 2005; Webster et al. 2005).
Tectonic activity and changing shallow marine and terrestrial conditions persisted throughout the Mesozoic period (251–65.5 million years BP). In general, the sinking ten- dency of the NorthSea basin as action at a distance of continental drift, continued, but ‘Block-and-Graben’ tectonics led to some relative movements with partiallly sinking but also uplifting tendencies. Already at the end of the Triassic period, the sediment load on top of the older salt strata started to deform the salt deposits by thermo-mobilisation, resulting in an early development of salt dome structures (Halocinesis). Later, as a consequence of on- going salt tectonics and partly other factors leading to vertical dislocations, sills and deep anoxic basins were formed to later become the source areas for the development of hydro- carbons. The mobility of the salt continues until today. In the subsurface of the NorthSea, the Northern German und Dutch lowlands, and below the most south-western part of the Baltic Sea, salt diapers in elongated form (Fig. 2), up to 100 km in length, exist. They expand vertically from a depth of up to 8,000 m to the present surface (Z IEGLER , 1990). An obvious example for salt tectonics is the island of Helgoland. Here the characteristic red sandstones were uplifted by more than 4,000 m (S CHMIDT -T HOMÉ , 1987). Nowadays, not only the troughs along the salt structures are of economic interest as potential reservoirs for hydro- carbons (e.g. Mittelplate oil field) but huge artificial caverns in the saltdomes can be used for the storage of energy sources such as oil, gas or compressed air and CO 2 as well.
Um die Zusammenhänge von Zeit und Lebenslauf geht es in dem vorliegenden Sonderband. Der Band geht hervor aus einem internationalen Workshop mit dem Titel „Timesof Life in TimesofChange – Sociological Perspectives on Time and the Life Course“, der am 25./26. Februar 2011 am Hanse-Wissenschaftskolleg in Del- menhorst stattfand, und bei dem – nach unserer Kenntnis erstmalig – Zeitsoziologen und Lebenslaufsoziologen zusammentrafen, um theoretische und empirische Gemein- samkeiten und Überschneidungen ihrer Felder zu diskutieren, aktuelle Forschungser- gebnisse vorzustellen und insbesondere um das Anregungspotenzial des jeweils ande- ren für die eigene Forschungsperspektive zu entdecken. Ziel dieses Workshops war es, einen Dialog zwischen der vornehmlich empirisch ausgerichteten Tradition der Lebenslaufforschung und der bislang überwiegend theoretisch orientierten Zeitsozio- logie zu initiieren. In einem kleinen Kreis von Vertreterinnen und Vertretern der Zeit- und Lebenslaufforschung wurde der Workshop zu einem fruchtbaren Austausch, den dieser Band fortsetzen und verstetigen soll.
The Earth’s climate has evolved and changed throughout its history. For approximately 94% of the past 850,000 years the earth’s climate was colder than at present (Barry and Chorley, 1998). The last major glacial episode reached a maximum 25,000–18,000 years ago when sea surface temperatures in the vicinity of Ireland were probably 10°C below those of today. Sea levels were approximately 85 m below today’s levels. Ireland was a part of continental Europe. Following deglaciation, migration routes for plants and animals were severed and the native flora and fauna of the island were determined. Since then, several notable fluctuations in climate have occurred, such as the cold Younger Dryas event (10,800– 10,100 years ago). These events have been revealed from analysis of sources such as tree rings, lake sediments, ice/ ocean cores, pollen deposits, corals and palaeosols. Post glacial warming peaked around 7,000–5,000 years ago when summer temperatures in Europe were probably 2– 3°C warmer than today. As the present day is approached, a much richer source ofclimate information becomes available, ranging through documentary sources such as early newspapers, diaries, crop-yield data and culminating in the instrumental records which provide the most objective measures of recent events. In Ireland, these commenced in 1794 at Armagh Observatory and, in 1800, at the Botanic Gardens in Dublin and have left a valuable legacy of observational data with which to chart Ireland’s climate.
In order to arrive at a unified EU position prior to international negotia- tions, delegations from Member States meet regularly with representatives of the European Commission (from the Directorate General for the Envi- ronment). Normal practice is for meetings of the ‘working party on interna- tional environmental issues – climatechange’ to be held approximately monthly. Additionally, expert groups are held to look into specific issue areas; these expert groups are initiated by, and report back to, the working party. Member States can appoint an expert to attend these groups and to accompany governmental representatives to conferences. In addition to the monthly meetings, at the start of each Presidency (January and July) a meeting is held that lasts for about three days. These meetings combine work and the reinforcing of working relationships; it is a time when informal ideas can be talked about. It is also the case that at least some of the people working on climatechange within the various countries and the European Commission have built up a close working relationship with one another and that communication is ongoing between various parties.
The shape and bathymetry of the NorthSea and the German Bight are a good protection against tsunami waves. However, the Dutch coast and the British Island are not as well pro- tected as the German coast. An incoming tsunami wave at the Northern boundary of the NorthSea is transformed by shoaling, refraction, reflection and energy losses mainly by wave breaking. The amplitudes of a tsunami wave at the GermanNorthSea coast can be compared to the water level elevations during a storm surge event. The governing processes are, of course, different.