Latvia does not yet have a national adaptation strategy. Under the project BaltCICA, however, a small regional strategy has been developed for theregion of Salacgriva. Furthermore, adaptation is being implemented in some broader initiatives. For example, on the national level the national strategy for spatial development of the coastal area takes adaptation into account. The expected climate impacts on the Latvian waters were identified through the national research programme KALME. Moreover the City of Riga is implementing an integrated strategy to adapt the city to the changes in hydrological processes, a project co-funded by the European LIFE+ Programme. In 2008, the Latvian government presented a first report on climateadaptation, which will serve as a basis for developing a national adaptation strategy. This was planned for the year 2011 to be managed by the Department of Climate and Renewable Energies within the Latvian Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional
Sweden has not yet developed a national adaptation strategy. However, several research projects and initiatives exist that take climateadaptation into account. In 2007 the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability published the report “Sweden facing climatechange – threats and possibilities”. It focuses on key sectors and factors of global change and their impacts on Sweden. The results served as the essential input into the 2008 climate and energy bill. It includes climateadaptation but mainly focuses on climate mitigation. The Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability notes that the responsibility for adapting to climatechange is shared between municipalities and the state. It proposes that the county administrative boards should be given a driving role, and the task of coordinating theclimateadaptation work within their respective counties. Therefore large differences exist between the counties in their work on climateadaptation.
In one of the sensitivity studies we vary sea level in the North Sea to investigate the impacts of sea level rise on tidal dynamics. We increase sea level in the North Sea by 80 cm. This value lies within the range of estimates for sea level rise in the North Sea up to the end of this century (G ÖNNERT et al. 2009). The choice of 80 cm does not imply that this value is more likely than other values. It is well suited for our purpose of investi- gating the main processes involved when sea level rises. A detailed description of the simulations carried out for this sensitivity study can be found in H OLZWARTH et al. (2011). The study shows that water levels in the interior of the estuaries do not just increase uniformly due to sea level rise. Tidal dynamics change. In most parts of the estuaries high water levels rise more than low water levels (Fig. 2). Thus the tidal range is larger in the model simulations that include sea level rise. The shape of the tidal curve is changed. Flood current velocities increase more strongly than ebb current velocities in many parts of the estuaries. There is an increase in the ratio of flood current velocity to ebb current velocity (Fig. 3). Due to the larger ratio of flood current velocity to ebb current velocity more sediment is transported in the upstream direction. An exception is the upper part of the Lower Ems. In this part the ratio of flood current velocity to ebb current velocity decreases.
As a result of the sensitivity study an influence of thesea-level rise on the high water level, the low water level and the highest water level during storm surge HW can be found (Figure 2, right). Thesea- level rise is also influencing the high water time. The highest water level during storm surge is reached earlier. Water levels higher as e.g. NHN + 3.00 m are lasting longer. An increase of the river run off (Figure 2, center) or the wind over the estuary (Figure 2, left) are influencing the same parameters but with different amounts of change in water level.
2 | ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 584
Problems with the Typical Framing of ClimateChangeAdaptationThe typical adaptation framing, which portrays in situ and retreat strategies as being mutually exclusive, has at least two problems (see ﬁgure on page 1). First, tipping points are often expressed in terms of environmental factors, such as the degree of sea level rise (Nicholls and Cazenave 2010). However, an increasing number of studies indicate that social factors may play a greater role in the ﬁnal decision to relocate (Perch-Nielsen, Bättig, and Imboden 2008; Arenstam- Gibbons and Nicholls 2006). Second, retreat strategies are shown to be a failure of in situ adaptation (Black et al. 2011). However, presenting these two main options as being mutually exclusive can inadvertently prevent communities from formulating a more integrated approach to climatechangeadaptation. Further, this false dilemma between retreat and in situ adaptation does not only oversimplify the problem of climatechange (Nunn 2009), but also potentially leads to conﬂicting adaptation priorities and competition for limited ﬁnancial resources.
Besides, as another crucial factor inducing sea-level change in theBalticSea, the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) – which is a consequence of the Scandinavian ice- sheet melting – leads to negative sea-level trends along the northern Baltic coast. The largest land uplift rates occur over the northern part of theBalticSea, and reach approximately 10 mm/year. However, the trend of vertical land movement is around of -1 mm/year at the south coast of BalticSea (Ekman 1996, Peltier 2004, Lidberg et al. 2010, Richter et al. 2011). Because of focusing on climate-induced sea-level variability in theBalticSearegion, we need to remove the GIA effect from sea-level time series. Since the GIA-induced trend of theBalticSea level is not varied even for a few centuries period, the GIA does not cause an anomaly in thesea-level for 11-year gliding trends. Therefore, as one of the lateral outcomes of the gliding trend method, we filter out the GIA effect from tide gauge time series by using decadal trend anomalies which are not modulated by the GIA-affected signal.
This paper presents a socio-economic vulnerability anal- ysis for green sectors facing water scarcity and climatechange in three MENA regions: the Delta zone of Egypt (intensive, irrigated systems), Karak, Jordan (rainfed cropping systems) and the Orontes basin in Lebanon (mixed rainfed and irrigated cropping systems). Major re- sults show that Egypt and Jordan exhibit higher vulner- ability than Lebanon due to unfavourable initial endow- ments of resources, which limit their adaptive capacities. Moreover, Lebanon’s vulnerability is also moderated by lower population growth and less reliance on agricul- ture. Groundwater deficit and per capita water share are reaching alarming levels in Jordan, and becoming seri- ous problems in Egypt too. In the latter case, extreme land fragmentation and encroaching urbanization sub- stantially reduce the country’s adaptive capacity, while climate-induced rising sea level aggravates soil salinity due to seawater intrusion, which is already a problem due to unsustainable farm level practices.
On a sector-specific level, manufacturing as well as mining and quarrying are the most heavily affected industries with respect to GVA when comparing the extreme weather and theadaptation scenario with the reference scenario. The transport sector benefits the most from extreme events. However, its economic performance diminishes in the adapta- tion scenario. The construction sector responds more positively than average to adapta- tion measures. For future research, this detailed sector specific analysis needs a detailed regional analysis, too. Not only industries differ in their vulnerability to extreme weather events, but also the individual regions in Germany. Reductions in agricultural production, for example, will have stronger impacts on the economy of Schleswig-Holstein than on North Rhine-Westphalia, since agricultural production in Schleswig-Holstein plays a more important role for the value added in that region than in North Rhine-Westphalia. Regard- ing this issue, further research is necessary to gain a more comprehensive insight into the impacts of extreme weather events and, thus, adaptation measures in Germany. Detailed knowledge about a region’s vulnerability to extreme events is decisive with respect to ad- aptation strategies. Within a regional approach, the burden sharing process will gain more relevance. Although the effects spread over the whole economy, the local or regional ef- fects on individual households might be much larger. These aspects escape a macro- modeling exercise. Moreover, some responses of the economic sectors to extreme events and adaptation measures reveal weaknesses underlying input-output-based macroecon- ometric models when analyzing effects of extreme weather events. Further adjustments are needed to capture modified economic relationships resulting from extreme events unhinging preliminary relationships and their interdependencies.
Exceptions to this are the measures related to funding and labour skills in Germany (“KfW Denkmal”) and the national research programme “Spara och Bevara” in Sweden. Furthermore, during the project, work began toward a European standard, CEN TC346 / WG 8 Energy efficiency of historic buildings, in which several Co2olBricks partners were involved. Sweden is, to our knowledge, the only EU country which, since 2012 , demands energy certificates also for historic buildings when sold or rented out. Analyses of the risks for historic buildings were not included in the assessment report prompting the legislation change, nor was the current lack in the area of both the expertise and processes to secure the cultural heritage value of buildings. The utility of establishing energy certificates can be questioned because profits are low and the number of buildings is small in this context. Protections in the building regulations of existing buildings secure that no requirements that would unacceptably alter the building’s character or appearance will be carried out. On the other hand, if energy certificates could be adapted to historic buildings and their specific conditions – if performing energy audits, measurements on the actual building and suggestions for energy saving measures were customised and evaluated by experts – historic buildings might contribute to the EU ’s energy goals and climate protection to a greater degree than today.
Economic growth based on modern principles of management is accompanied by increased environmental pollution, the degra- dation of natural ecosystems, a reduction in biodiversity, the de- pletion of natural resources, climatechange, and deteriorating public health. Today, the established philosophy and practices of management are no longer up to the task of improving the quality of life. There is a need for a change in priorities and for a transition to a new trajectory in line with the principles of sustainable devel- opment and the green economy. This trajectory will ensure eco- nomic growth focused on the needs of society, economic well- being, social justice, and providing a safe living environment ra- ther than on obtaining the maximum economic benefit for a lim- ited number of people through ruthless exploitation of natural and labour resources. Thus, environmental security is becoming cru- cial for economic development and the very existence of human society.
The analysis of CC impact on the wine sector highlights the increased interest in this subject for both potential trends and impact analysis on the production chain and its products (Mozell and Thach, 2014). Among the most signi ﬁcant studies have focused on environmental aspects, including potential variation in cultivar distribution (Schultz and Jones, 2010; Fraga et al., 2012; Ruml et al., 2012), variation of vine productivity (Bindi et al., 1996; Holland and Smit, 2010; Schultz and Jones, 2010), the spread of pests and plant infections (Jones et al., 2005; Stock et al., 2005; Caffarra et al., 2012) and the impact on phenological activity (Schultz, 2000; Webb et al., 2007). Additional studies have concentrated on speci ﬁc ( Hadarits et al., 2010; Keller, 2010, Galletto et al., 2014) or optimised (Zhu et al., 2016) intervention strategies to cope with negative effects of CC as well as on economic damage (Moriondo et al., 2011; Bernetti et al., 2012; De Salvo et al., 2013). The social dimension of CC affecting the wine chain has mainly been determined through the evaluation of local stakeholders ’ perceptions ( Hadarits et al., 2010; Alonso and O ’Neill, 2011 ), as well as through socio-ecological approaches (Battaglini et al., 2009). More insights regarding the in ﬂuence of CC on wine systems were proposed in Lereboullet et al. (2013) through the application of mixed-methods. In this last paper, the authors combined multiple methodologies to model the wine sector as a complex system in an integrated perspective for French and Australian case studies. Particular research outputs highlighted a potential shifts of wine regions in response to CC. For example Moriondo et al. (2013) con ﬁrmed that the shifts to higher elevations as well as latitudes of European areas that are potentially suitable to the cultivation of grapevines, can appear. The applica- tion of ARPEGE model in Champagne region revealed how the impact of CC deal to a decrease in extreme low temperatures during bud break and an increase in extreme high temperatures in summer, associated with more frequent heat waves during ripening with adverse consequences on grapevines phenology (Briche et al., 2014). The negative effects of CC on socio-economic variables were emphasised by Pomarici and Seccia (2016) for both short and long term forecast. In a recent paper of Galbreath et al. (2016) attention was paid to the drivers of climatechange innovations and the effects of these innovations on ﬁrms of the South Australian wine cluster. By the application of structural equation modelling the authors stress how climatechange innovations seems to stimulate knowledge exchanges between ﬁrms as well as ﬁrm performance and reduction in greenhouse gases.
West African farmers are among those most likely to suffer from climatechange, partly due to the agro-climatic characteristics of the regional system and to their limited scope for coping with shocks. Climatechangeadaptation has thus been touted as a necessary path for rural poverty reduction and development in theregion. Yet, do farm households who implemented climatechangeadaptation earn higher income compare to those who did not? We attempt to answer this question in the context of crop and livestock income in the Savana region of Togo. To that end, we build a bio-economic model based on farm household model theory. Using survey data collected from a representative sample of 450 savanna farm households of the agricultural year 2014/2015, we identify farm-household types through cluster analysis and apply them in the simulation model. From the simulation results, we conclude that at their current costs, soil and water conservation techniques and irrigation practives can on average provide higher income even under climatechange, since they are able to mitigate at least 63 % of the impacts of climatechange on crop and livestock income. By contrast, reducing the quantity of applied fertilizer, mentioned as an adaptation option by farmers, increases the farm households’ vulnerability to climatechange. The policy message we draw from this study is to encourage Soil and Water Conservation techniques and sustainable irrigation as sound strategies for higher income under climatechange in theregion. These are “no regret options” with a positive impact on livelihoods while preserving the resource base.
achieved. Ensuring access to analyzed historical climate infor- mation and other forms of climate information is important but only part of the challenge. This paper has argued that for any coping or adaptation project a ﬁrst step should be to deter- mine the nature of theclimate norms within the project area in order to ascertain the eﬃcacy of current coping strategies and to explore the range of appropriate options best suited to that location. This is also important to avoid an underestimation of other environmental factors, such as decreasing soil fertility, and ensure more speciﬁc support is provided which will avoid maladaptive pathways. A greater awareness of these impli- cations remains vital, not least for government organizations, which were shown by the study to rely heavily on general knowledge, but have a role in promoting debate at the policy level. In addition, the successes that has been achieved by some National Meteorological Services (using tools such as CLIMSOFT and RINSTAT), need to be built on regarding the introduction of eﬀective data rescue, quality control and management of historical data, and eﬀective production of his- torical information for practical use. We recommend that pol- icy makers and national strategies encourage National Meteorological Services to undertake these activities to provide analyzed historical information for all meteorological stations in the form of graphs and tables for main characteristics includ- ing: total seasonal rainfall, start and end dates of seasons, sea- son lengths, numbers of rain days per season, occurrence of extreme events, and characteristic of temperature for all years for which data is obtainable. We further recommend national and local organizations to utilize these products in both plan- ning and implementation and request further products where they need them to explore particular aspects of climate.
locations for industry and service providers, the German BalticSea ports contribute significantly to the security and strengthening of employment, income, and tax revenue in the coastal region. According to a study on the regional economic importance of the ports in Lübeck by UNICONSULT 2012, approximately 8,200 jobs in this city depend directly on its ports. For the city of Lübeck, the gross value associated with the port related economy is estimated at 542 million Euros.
areas and have been built along area rivers as early as the Ly dynasty (1009-1225). Subse- quently, dyke construction and maintenance have become a critical aspect of the state’s re- lationship with its population, figuring into its fulfilment of the social contract of disaster protection and affecting the population’s per- ception of the state’s integrity ( Nguyen Nguyen Hoai 2005; Scott 1976) . This acute hydrau- lic involvement by the state is reminiscent of Wittfogel’s account of ‘Oriental despotism,’ an authoritarian style of government charac- terized by hydraulic control. While some of Wittfogel’s more extreme characterizations of such states are not applicable, he does note that ‘ the hydraulic state fulfilled a variety of impor- tant managerial functions. In most instances it maintained crucial hydraulic works [and] usually it also controlled the major nonhydrau- lic industrial enterprises, especially large con- structions’ (Wittfogel 1957: 48). This historical tendency of a strong state managing hydraulic control and large constructions remains present in the field study areas, further supporting the infrastructure bias.
Sea level variations in the Western Baltic are caused by different forces. The most important one is the wind induced setup during periods of strong storms. Typically easterly to northeasterly winds rise the wa- ter level, southwesterly to westerly winds induce a lowering of the water level. During a sudden change of the wind direction theBalticSea generates standing basin waves (seiches). These seiches can intensify the effect of wind setup. The typical period of such variations is 27 or 36 hours. Further sources of varia- bility are the semidiurnal tides with about 0.2 meters of amplitude local wind setup and fjord seiches with a few centimeters of range.
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view of gender. The second is derived from interview surveys with three female Japanese farmers.
4.1 Disaster recovery
As mentioned in section 2, there have been many studies of disaster prevention, recovery, and related gender issues, including Zottarelli’s (2008) study of recovering occupational status after Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans that showed that women were less likely to regain employment and more likely to obtain worse employment after a disaster. Oshima (2006) reported a similar example in Niigata Prefecture, Japan, after the floods of 2004 in which a female manager of a private company was demoted after missing a few weeks of work. Several men at the same company also experienced the same flood, but they returned to work sooner. In fact, it took the woman more than twice as long as her male counterparts to return to work, and she was demoted because of this delay. The woman is from a rural area in the prefecture where families usually are larger than average and community ties are strong. Women are expected take care of their family members and their community, whereas men are free to return to work much sooner. Local residents said some men went to work as usual the day after the flooding, but women were expected to limit their role to mothers and wives and to maintain the family’s house and care for aging parents.
A great part of Estonian entrepreneurs think that renewing their enterprises technological base would rise the productivity. On the other hand the present situation has given a possibility to invest into sectors with greater profitability, but in those branches the rise of productivity is slowing down. Entrepreneurs do not have the pressure to invest into R&D and to co-operate with universities and research centres. Considering that most of Central and Eastern European countries industries are based on low technology, it is really hard to rise investments into R&D quickly to the same level as in developed countries (Teadus- ja Arendusnõukogu, 2002). If we take also into account that Estonia has not got its own industrial policy then we can say that quick restructuring is rather impossible and de-industrialization after some years is a logical step.
The impacts of climatechange are considered to be strong in countries located in tropical Africa that depend on agri- culture for their food, income and livelihood. Therefore, a better understanding of the local dimensions of adaptationstrategies is essential to develop appropriate measures that will mitigate adverse consequences. Hence, this study was conducted to identify the most commonly used adaptationstrategies that farm households practice among a set of options to withstand the e ﬀects of climatechange and to identify factors that aﬀect the choice of climatechangeadaptationstrategies in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. To address this objective, Multivariate Probit model was used. The results of the model indicated that the likelihood of households to adapt improved varieties of crops, ad- just planting date, crop diversification and soil conservation practices were 58.73 %, 57.72 %, 35.61 % and 41.15 %, respectively. The Simulated Maximum Likelihood estimation of the Multivariate Probit model results suggested that there was positive and significant interdependence between household decisions to adapt crop diversification and using improved varieties of crops; and between adjusting planting date and using improved varieties of crops. The results also showed that there was a negative and significant relationship between household decisions to adapt crop diver- sification and soil conservation practices. The paper also recommended household, socioeconomic, institutional and plot characteristics that facilitate and impede the probability of choosing those adaptationstrategies.