Summary and possibilities for further progress

With this article, we would like to provide a methodological sup-port for the evaluation of ecosystem services. The introduced case study also brings up the possibility of using Bayesian networks in other areas of environmental sciences. However, the model we built still needs to be improved in several different aspects. First of all, it must be able to deter-mine the value of the ecosystem services. Secondly, for specifying the dif-ferent causal relations more precisely, the model might need some modi-fications e.g. using some correlations, which are not based on our own measurement data. Due to the possibility of including probability-based relations and experts’ decisions in the model, Bayesian networks might be capable of handling also economical and sociological data, and might be able to examine the future tendencies as well. In the case of these karstic lakes it may mean applying the method of restoration costs for decision support. This would mean that with the help of Bayesian networks, differ-ent alternatives of treatmdiffer-ent (for example dredging, protection from ero-sion, regional drainage) can be compared. With the help of a software tool made at Queensland University (ArcGIS Bayesian Classification Tool), we can examine the correlation between variables with spatial dimension. As a result of the methodical overview and the case study, we found that tools suitable for building more difficult models (Bayesian networks, Simile) pri-marily have a role in evaulating role in evaluating certain ecosystem ser-vices. However, for evaluating the total economical value, we should rely on general geospatial software (ArcGIS, Erdas Imagine). All these methods can be applied in evaluations in Hungary according to the aims of this re-search and the chosen study area.

5. Literature

Barančok, P. (2001): Karst lakes of the protected landscape area – Biosphere Reserve Slovensky kras karst and Aggtelek National Park. Ekológia (Bratislava) 20(Suppl.

4), p. 157-190.

Bardóczyné, Sz. E., Szabó, I. (2007): A Gödöllő-Isaszegi Tórendszer analitikai és toxikoló-giai vizsgálati eredményeinek értékelése: Mintavételi helyek. Hatvani Környezetvédő Egyesület. RET pályázat 2007. évi részjelentés (http://www.hkve.org)

Borsuk, M. E., Stow, C. A., Reckhow, K. H. (2004): A Bayesian Network of eutrophication models for synthesis, prediction and uncertainty analysis. Ecological Modelling 173, p. 219-239.

Boumans, R., Costanza, R. (2007): The multiscale integrated Earth Systems model (MIMES): the dynamics, modelling and valuation of ecosystem services. In Van Bers, C., Petry, D., Pahl-Wostl, C. (eds.): Global Assessments: Bridging Scales and Link-ing to Policy. Report on the joint TIAS-GWSP workshop held at the University of Maryland University College, Adelphi, USA, 10 and 11 May 2007. GWSP Issues in Global Water System Research 2, GWSP IPO, Bonn, p. 102-106. (http://www.uvm.

edu/giee/mimes)

Bromley, J., Jackson, N. A., Clymer, O. J., Giacomello, A. M., Jensen, F. V. (2005): The use of Hugin® to develop Bayesian networks as an aid to integrated water resource planning. Environmental Modelling & Software 20, p. 231–242.

Burkhard, B., Kroll, F., Müller, F., Windhorst, W. (2009): Landscapes‘ Capacities to Pro-vide Ecosystem Services - a Concept for Cover Based Assessments. Land-scape Online 15, p. 1-22.

Chen, N., Li, H., Wang, L. (2009): A GIS-based approach for mapping direct use value of ecosystem services at a county scale: Management implications. Ecological Eco-nomics 68, p. 2768-2776.

Csutora, M. (2005): Helyreállítási költség számítása a Kis-Balaton esetében. In Mar-jainé Szerényi Zs. (szerk.): A természetvédelemben alkalmazható közgazdasági ér-tékelési módszerek. KvVM Természetvédelmi Hivatal, Budapest, p. 45-51.

van Deursen, W. P. A. (1995): Geographical Information Systems and Dynamic Models:

development and application of a prototype spatial modelling language. Doctor’s dissertation, Utrecht University, NGS 190.

Hein, L. (2006): Cost-effi cient eutrophication control in a shallow lake ecosystem sub-ject to two steady states. Ecological Economics 59, p. 429-439.

Holmlund, C. M., Hammer, M. (1999): Ecosystem services generated by fi sh popula-tions. Ecological Economics 29, p. 253-268.

Huber, A. (2006): Az Aggteleki Vörös-tó élőhely-rehabilitációja. Kézirat, 2 p.

Juhász, L., Salamon, G. (2006): A Jósvafői Tengerszem-tó halközössége. XXX. Halászati Tudományos Tanácskozás Absztraktkötete, Szarvas, p. 41.

Kiss, M., Tanács, E., Bárány-Kevei, I. (2011): Ecosystem services in Hungarian Karst areas. (in press Acta Climatologica et Chorologica Universitatis Szegediensis) Kreuter, U. P., Harris, H. G., Matlock, M. D., Lacey, R. E. (2001): Change in ecosystem

service values in the San Antonio area, Texas. Ecological Economics 39, p. 333-346.

Kuikka, S., Varis, O. (1997): Uncertainties of climatic change impacts in Finnish wa-tersheds: a Bayesian network analysis of expert knowledge. Boreal Environment Research 2, p. 109–128.

Kunský, J. (1939): Jezera Slovenského Krasu. Rozpravy II. Třídy České Akademie 25, p.

1-17.

Lee, D. C., Rieman, B. E. (1997): Population viability assessment of salmonids by using probabilistic networks. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 17, p.

1144–1157.

Marcot, G. B., Steventon, J. D., Sutherland, G. D., McCann, R. K. (2006): Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modelling and conservation. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36, p. 3063-3074.

Maxwell, T., Villa, F., Costanza, R. (2002): The Spatial Modelling Environment User Guide. University of Maryland, 39 p.

McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., Kleist, J. (1993): The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim.

Morgan, M. G., Henrion, M. (1990): Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge Press, New York, 332 p.

Nelson, E., Mendoza, G., Regetz, J., Polasky, S., Tallis, H., Cameron, D. R., Chan, K. M.

A., Daily, G. C., Goldstein, J., Kareiva, P. M., Lonsdorf, E., Naidoo, R., Ricketts, T. H., Shaw, M. R. (2009): Modelling multiple ecosystem services, biodiversity conserva-tion, commodity producconserva-tion, and tradeoffs at landscape scales. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 7, p. 4–11.

OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) (1982): Eutrophica-tion of Waters. Monitoring assessment and control. Final Report. OECD Cooperative Programme on Monitoring of Inland Waters (Eutrophication Control). Environment Directorale, OECD, Paris, p. 1-154.

Paaijmans, K. P., Takken, W., Githeko, A. K., Jacobs, A. F. G. (2008): The effect of water turbidity on the near-surface water temperature of larval habitats of the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae. International Journal of Biometeorology 8, p. 747-753.

Randall, D. J., Tsui, T. K. N. (2002): Ammonia toxicity in fi sh. Marine Pollution Bulletin 45, p. 17–23.

Somlyódy, L., van Straten, G. (eds.) (1986): Modelling and managing shallow lake eutro-phication. With application to Lake Balaton. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.

Szakolczay, J. (1997): Halegészségügyi alapismeretek. In Tathy, B. (szerk.): Hal-gazdálkodás II. MOHOSZ, Budapest, p. 457-487.

Szilágyi, F., Orbán, V. (szerk.) (2007): Alkalmazott hidrobiológia. Magyar Víziközmű Szövetség, 624 p.

Tallis, H., Polasky, S. (2009): Mapping and Valuing Ecosystem Services as an Approach for Conservation and Natural-Resource Management. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1162, p. 265-283.

Tallis, H., Ricketts, T., Ennaanay, D., Nelson, E., Vigerstol, K., Mendoza, G., Wolny, S., Olwero, N., Aukema, J., Foster, J., Forrest, J., Cameron, D. (2008): InVEST 1.003 beta User’s Guide. The Natural Capital Project, Stanford, 125 p. (http://www.naturalcapi-talproject.org/InVEST.html)

Troy, A., Wilson, M. A. (2006): Mapping ecosystem services: Practical challenges and op-portunities in linking GIS and value transfer. Ecological Economics 60, p. 435-449.

Varis, O. (1997): Bayesian decision analysis for environmental and resource manage-ment. Environmental Modelling & Software 12, p. 177–185.

Wurts, W. A., Durborow, R. M. (1992): Interactions of pH, carbon dioxide, alkalinity and hardness in fi sh ponds. Southern Regio

BANCE REGIME AS LINKAGES BETWEEN