• Nem Talált Eredményt

Sources of the primary data

In document CGE Modelling: A training material (Pldal 145-148)

5. Statistical background of the GEM-E3 model

5.2. Sources of the primary data

Food, Beverages and Tobacco N D

Housing Furniture and Operation N D

Medical Care and Health Expenses N D

Operation of Transport Equipment N D datasets or details are missing, one has to apply certain (proportionality, etc.) assumptions. In case of inconsistencies certain balancing methods (e.g. RAS) can be applied. In case of different classifications one has to apply certain transformation techniques.

5.2. Sources of the primary data

The sources of the above listed primary data categories are the following:

• I-O tables (usually at basic prices) and in many countries the import matrices too (at c.i.f.

prices) are published by the CSOs (Central Statistical Office of the given country) or by the Eurostat (for the EU15).

• Indirect tax and subsidy matrices are either supplied (as supplementary tables) by the CSO or have to be estimated (e.g. by RAS) from margins obtained from the CSO and the Budget Reports (see the Hungarian example later). If an import duty matrix is to be estimated, one can use the www.wto.com web-site’s useful material for the the effective duty rates by countries and commodities.

• Trade Data of bilateral trade flows: for the EU15 they can be found in the COMEXT. For other countries, reference data for estimating trade flows can be found in the GTAP data base (which we obtained for 1995 and 1997). For example, the GTAP project’s published (simplified) export and import matrices for 1997 show the trade flows by 56 commodity-groups and for 57 countries or regions.

Alternatively, one can use the annual Yearbook for Foreign Trade Statistics publications or electronic trade databases of the individual countries. In the foreign balance of payments several trade related data can be found (including for the service trade) buti n many cases they are somewhat different (due to methodological and practical reasons) from the NA data.

• Consumption transformation matrix is estimated by using available information on the structures in the national accounts and consumption statistics. When consumption statistics is not available or its break-down by categories is not suitable for the margin of the consumption matrix, data (in fact for 2000) can be found in the OECD/Eurostat’s Purchasing Power Parity project’s background worksheets.

• Tourist expenditures: There are country specific surveys for some years, or NA consistent

“satellite accounts”. However, their commodity break-down is seldom satisfactory or reliable.

Since indirect tax content (especially by branch break-down) is usually not published, one has to estimate them. The commodity structure of the tourist consumption has to be estimated only if the national consumption pattern has to be estimated, or when only HBS data (which correspond to the national consumption concept) are available for the estimation of the domestic consumption structure. However, in the GEM-E3 model, for the time being the domestic consumptions are dealt with, so it is not a present problem.

• Investment transformation matrix is estimated by using available information on the structures in the investment statistics, and the national accounts and I-O tables.

• National accounts by sector and by branch (for the EU15 from Cronos of Eurostat), that - after aggregation and supplemented by the Income distribution data (State Budget Reports, National Accounts, Foreign Balance of Payments) - can be used to complete the income distribution part of the Social Accounting Matrix by country.

• Emission statistics for the atmospheric pollutants represented in the model can be found in the RIVM (EDGAR)14, IPCC, UN15 and other sources. The Greenhouse gas emission data can be found in the http://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/ro/eu/ghgmm/envrayfoa web-pages.

• The estimation of the abatement cost functions is based on the RAINS data computed for the CAFE project.

• Auxiliary macroeconomic data:

• Factor endowment data (capital, labour, employment, stocks, etc.): these are usually found in the CSO (employment) and ILO publications (e.g. labour costs including those which are regarded to be production taxes or intermediate costs).

• Demographic data: Total and active population data were collected from the ENERDATA database but they also can be found in the national statistical yearbooks and labour surveys.

• Interest rates, inflation rate in the base year, etc.: CSO, NB (National Banks)

• Energy balance sheets (by Eurostat methods): IEA/OECD or Eurostat (if not available for they are not public, one can estimate it from national publications as in the case of Hungary).

• Energy taxes and energy consuming durable goods: Data can be found in the national energy authorities’ publications or in the OECD databases. Many useful (including special) data (e.g. the share of the gasoline within the motor fuel use) can be found on the World Resource Institue’s16 http://earthtrends.wri.org/searchable_db web-site.

• Data for extension modules can be found in specific sources. Of these we just mention the case of the multiple household version of the model, which is under development for the GEM-E3 model, but which can be found in many CGE models:

• Data for household groups: The main sources are the Household Budget Surveys (or in some cases separate Income and Expenditure Surveys) the census (for the stock of durable goods) and Tax Returns (mainly for individuals). For the other household group specific data sources it is worth mentioning for example, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office conducted and published surveys for the Inter-household transfers (see KSH [2004]).

14 The Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment/The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (RIVM/MNP) and the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO). 2005 and 2001. The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) 3.2 Fast Track 2000 and 3.2. Acidifying gases: SO2 (Sulfur Dioxide): Extended Emissions 2000 and Aggregated Emissions 1990/1995. The Netherlands: RIVM. Electronic database available online at: http://www.mnp.nl/edgar/.

15 Mainly the country specific National Inventory Report prepared for submission in accordance with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) [including electronic Excel spreadsheet files containing Common Reporting Format (CRF) data]

16 Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) version 3.0. (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2005). Available at http://cait.wri.org. WRI calculates carbon dioxide emissions from 3 sources:

EIA. 2004. International Energy Annual 2002. Available online at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea/carbon.html.

IEA. 2004. CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2004 edition). Available online at:

http://data.iea.org/ieastore/co2_main.asp.

Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2005. Global, Regional, and National Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions. in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. Available online at:

http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.htm.

In document CGE Modelling: A training material (Pldal 145-148)