Thoughts of our interview partners concerning desired ways and directions local policies should take aiming to mitigate shrinkage or being able to live with population decline have been drafted in the previous chapters. Lacking the opportunity of discussing realistic policy options with local stakeholders, authors of this case study collected some possible policy actions relevant from the point of view of rural shrinkage. The items if the below list do not target either of the most characteristic strategies, that is mitigation of or adaptation to shrinkage. The collection aims simply a better local governance, enhanced and better-working planning capacities in a way that mobilises local people and resources for the benefit of the area and its inhabitants.
Potential policy tools addressing shrinkage in the Szentes district.
A collection of external suggestions
The local policy arena should be revitalised and professionalised!
o Those layers of the population, which are key from the point of view of population decline must be approached and called for open discussions. A platform for dialog with young people, parents and young adults should be launched where their needs and constrains of meeting revealed needs are to be discussed.
o Internal and external networks, policy (even politics)-related and neutral ones must be broadened, strengthened and activated for acquiring more resources aiming at maintenance and development of the area.
Broadened internal networks should cover those local actors who are in a position of controlling / operating endogenous resources and are able to offer opportunities for a better use of these resources foe common interests;
Extended and strengthened external (horizontal and vertical) networks linking agents engaged in development could ensure better access to information (and at the end, to external resources); they also might contribute to better-working governance through collaborative work and publicity; in the Hungarian contexts, sub-regional co-operation of municipalities needs to be revitalised and connections with county (NUTS-3) level agents (county council, development agencies) have to be enhanced.
o Human capacities working with planning and development should also be strengthened at strategic areas, like local and regional development, tourism, housing, child-care, etc.
• Most important policy fields to be addressed in the Szentes districts are as follows:
o Housing: the stock of dwellings should be extended and renewed through
new housing developments by private investors targeting the middle-class;
refurbished old (or abandoned) housing stock by public investment aiming to
• ensure rentals as means of affordable housing for the local youth;
• provide intermediate housing opportunities to newcomers (immigrants, migrant workers);
o Entrepreneurship: opportunities for self-employment should be broadened through promoting micro-scale enterprising in various fields of activities ranging from trade to tourism and provisioning of different services;
o Public spaces, local culture; parks, sports opportunities, cultural centres/houses should be maintained and developed further in order to secure lively local community life;
o Public services – an overall strategy of affordable and high quality public services should be developed on a collaborative basis with maintainers, managers and representatives of the clientele;
o Demand of a better exploitation of thermal energy (for a thermal bath?
economic purposes?) was raised by many interviewees; a careful assessment of development opportunities needs to be launched.
• (Self-)evaluation of development programs/projects, especially the larger ones and those in a pilot phase is necessary to increase learning, designing and co-operating capacities related to local development. For example, lessons could be mutually learnt from sharing experiences with regard designing and implementing development activity of Local Action Groups (LEADER and CLLD programmes of two neighbouring towns) of the area.
Conclusions
Szentes and its rural hinterland has been shrinking significantly as an outcome of outmigration and low fertility rates. Over the past 15 years, the number of permanent residents of Szentes has decreased by 12%. The accelerating pace of outmigration has an important role in the decline, affecting primarily the more educated, motivated and younger population. This selective outmigration contributes to a vicious circle: the proportion of women of childbearing age has been constantly decreasing, resulting in decreasing fertility rates, and contributing to the aging of the population. The ageing index increased from 127% in 2001 to 190% in 2011, and to 213% in 2017. At the same time, the proportion of active-age people (15-64 years old) in the total population is declining at an accelerating rate, after 69% in 2001 it was still 68% in 2011, but it dropped to 63% by 2017. Data indicate that in the rural hinterland of Szentes an even faster speed of shrinkage is present.
Shrinkage in Szentes and its surroundings is caused by (1) the geographical location of the area (inner-periphery) and economic and accessibility weaknesses that stem from it, (2) legacies of earlier rounds of population loss (catalysed mainly by collectivisation and urbanisation from the 1950s to the 1970s), (3) recent urbanisation effects (outmigration to cities) as well as (4) globalisation effects such as circular migration and/or emigration to the West. The increasing drain of the qualified and young population is heavily contributing to constrained development capacities (shortage of human capital) and labour shortages in general, seriously threatening production in all economic sectors in the town and in the villages. According to expectations, however, the labour shortage, at least in the largest food industrial plant, will be reduced soon due to the automation of production lines. If this grows into a trend in the medum term, the shortage of unskilled and semi-skilled labour will soon turn into excess labour and increased unemployment rates fuelling further outmigration.
Mitigation and adaptation equally have been considered by leaders of Szentes as coping strategies for the present day and for the future. Three priorities for local development have been formulated in Szentes by the municipality leaders: (1) attracting investments bringing higher value-added industries to the town that could generate higher wage levels and higher-prestige jobs, thus mitigating outmigration of young and qualified people. This is obviously a mitigation strategy (2) The town-hall also prioritises further strengthening high-quality and wide-ranging public services, which seems to stand between mitigation and adaptation goals.
This priority can hardly come true in the current context when control over such major public services as education, health care has shifted from the local government to the state from 2013. January. (3) The third priority of the local development strategy seems to stand closer to adaptation, by enhancing natural values and the close-to- nature environment, offering liveable residential areas for the remaining middle-class and healthy and suitable opportunities for recreation for the locals and tourists. One alternative to adapting to shrinkage has not emerged either in the interviews, or in the thought of the co-authors of this report despite its high relevance: a “back to our roots for the sake of future” scenario
suggesting an agriculture-based development path based on the sector which is still very successful, especially intensive gardening, which relies on local human and physical resources (skills, enthusiasm, land, geothermal energy) and is tied to the localities. This alternative scenario has to be discussed with local stakeholders in the focus group.
At the time of writing, the capability of the town and villages in the rural hinterland to attract significant funding resources either from EU (ERDF, CAP Pillar II) or national resources is highly uncertain. EU funding will be diminished (Structural Funds by -24%, CAP Pillar II decrease is estimated between 16-25%) and more specified than before, which does not seem to be promising. Delivery mechanisms, mainstream (of the territorial operational programme) and specific, like CLLD and LEADER, will probably will not bring much more funding and vibrancy to the area as is currently the case because they are and will probably be poorly funded. On the other hand, national resources will probably be increasing, at least in the short run through the Hungarian Village Programme currently in force and the Hungarian Town Programme the design of which is in progress. Therefore the capability of harmonising / combining funding resources will also be of high importance. It has to be emphasised that the most influential national program directly impacting shrinkage, the Family Protection Action Programme, has been available in Szentes since 2016 and has been made available for the village inhabitants in 2019 through the Hungarian Village Programme. Its accessibility therefore seems safe.