Long-term demographic trends

The population of the Szentes district has been declining since 1949 (Figure 5). The town of Szentes reached its peak population in 1980, whilst villages in its rural hinterland had their population maximum between 1930 (Szegvár) and 1960 (Derekegyház).

Figure 5: Total population in the CS area (1870–2011)

Source: HCSO, Census 2011 database

The smallest settlements (Eperjes, Nagytőke, Árpádhalom) of the concerned LAU 1 area are the fastest shrinking: they have already lost two thirds of their peak population (Table 10).

Szentes itself and the nearby, larger villages (Szegvár, Fábiánsebestyén, Derekegyház) show relatively moderate population decline.

The case study area followed the national demographic trends, until 1980 it was characterized by positive natural reproduction, it was outmigration from the villages (Szegvár, Nagytőke, Árpádhalom, Eperjes, and Fábiánsebestyén) that led to population decline. In that

period only Szentes and Derekegyház (seat of a large-scale, state-owned farm) had a positive migration balance. Those who left usually moved to the rapidly urbanizing county seat (Szeged). 1980 represents the demographic turning point, when population of the town of Szentes started to shrink, as natural reproduction became negative.

Table 10: Evolution of population shrinkage in Szentes district (1870–2011) Settlement

As percentage of peak population (%) Peak Pop.

Source: HCSO, Census 2011 database

As the table shows, Stalinist phase of the Communist regime (1949–1956) represented a turning point in demographic dynamics of villages. Forced collectivisation of peasant property mobilised the population in two steps. To make it clearer, the specific settlement pattern spread in the Hungarian Great Plain where our case study area lies needs to be introduced.

The so-called scattered farm settlement pattern (‘tanyarendszer’) is considered a specific form of the Great Plain. Its specificity lies in the strong linkages of the farm, which is in the outskirts (external, agricultural zones of either a village or a town) and the internal territories (meaning housing, industrial, commercial, leisure zones and of course the village/town centres) of the settlement. Historically, the farmhouse served as a shelter or place of residence for a young couple of a larger family during the high season. The family house was located in the inner territory of the town or a village where the old couple retired and/or the family lived during wintertime. The model emerged in the 16^th–17^th century and was dominant till the first half of the 20^th century. Moreover, duality of residence developed a characteristic identity of people who claimed themselves to be residents of the town rather than the farm or the agricultural area even after such a duality of housing had been weakened significantly since less and less families could afford running two dwelling units. Half of the village population on average and one quarter of the population of Szentes lived as permanent residents in the scattered farm area in 1960. These relatively high rates dropped to 8% and 5% respectively by 2011 (Census data).

Strong ties between external and internal parts of a settlement motivated those small-holders who had been expelled from their farms without any compensation to move to the dwelling area of a town or a village generating a population increase there for some years (first step), and then, they often moved further towards urban centres jointly with fellow villagers (second step) as the graph below indicates (Figure 6).

Figure 6: Residents of external and internal areas of the six smaller villages of the Szentes district, 1960–2011

Source: National Regional Development and Spatial Planning Information System, Census database

Szentes, the centre of the area was profiting to some extent up until late seventies, this explains why shrinkage started in the town with delay in the 1980s.

As earlier sharp systematic changes, the fall of State Socialism led in Hungary to a dramatic economic transition crises with collapsing manufacturing and fundamentally transformed agriculture accompanied by a high unemployment rate (raising from zero to 12%), and resulting in a 18% drop of the GDP between 1989 and 1993 (source: HCSO, STADAT). Cities as economic centres were hit the most that contributed to an unprecedented reverse migration (from urban centres to rural areas). The process, however, was triggered heavily by suburbanisation, too.

Counter-urbanization affected positively the case study area in the 1990s, but only for a short while. The new round of outmigration was triggered by the loss of jobs due in this agricultural area mainly to the mandatory transformation of large-scale collective farms. If we summarise the long-term dynamics of population change from the 1950s till 2011, the leading component of shrinkage was outmigration during the State Socialist era impacting demographic processes in the next two decades as well through legacy effects, as the figure below illustrates (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Natural change and migration balance in the CS area between 1960 and 2011

Source: National Regional Development and Spatial Planning Information System, Census database

To close this chapter with migration statistics: according to the latest figures, two thirds of active-age emigrants preferred Budapest and the county seats (Szeged, Kecskemét, Győr), and only one third chose villages or small and medium sized towns between 2001 and 2011.

A particularly high negative migration balance (-376) can be observed among the educated/skilled people in this decade. EU accession (2004) opened new opportunities: by 2011 the labour-markets of each member state had become accessible for Hungarian citizens and many took the opportunity to leave, especially after the years of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis (2008 onwards). According to anecdotal evidence from the interviews, approx. 1% of the population (270 individuals) emigrated from Szentes (Interview no. 16).