?ERIODICA POLYTECH1'.'ICA SER. TRANSP. ENG. VOL. 26, NO. 1-2, PP. 211-230 (1998)
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT ON TRANSPORT
Katalin T.~NCZOS and Zoltan BOKOR Technical University of Budapest
H-1521 Budapest, Hungary Received: Sept. 15, 1998
Abstract
The study compiled by the chairman and the secretary of RTFP panel 'Transport' sum- marises the main aims, tasks and results of research on transport future analysis. It describes the characteristics and methodology of RTFP - based on scenario building, pro- fessional workshops and a large-scale Delphi survey - generally, and evaluates the concrete research methods and results of the panel 'Transport' in detail. The research results up to now are the panel guidelines, the panel images and the Delphi statements on transport.
As further tasks can be mentioned scenario building based on the panel images, holding professional meetings to discuss possible future development ways, and writing a panel report summarising the results and giving recommendations for the transport policy.
J( eYll'ords: transport, technology, foresight.
1. The Hungarian Technology Foresight Programme (HTFP) Governments have the main tasks to improve competitiveness and living standard, Analysing of opportunities and resources, as well as establishini!;
and realizing appropriate strategy can serve for reaching these goals, Tech- nology foresight may be an efficient instrument for collecting and processing information.
Different methods of foresight \\'ere elaborated in Japan and the USA.
and are applied in several countries in the world. The Hungarian Technology Foresight Programme (HTFP) was initiated by the :\ational Committee fo, Technological Development in 1997. It will end in 1999.
1.1. The Aims and Tasks of HTFP
HTFP aims to create sustainable competitive ad\'antage and enhance the quality of life by bringing together business, science and government 1:0
identify and respond emerging opportunities in markets and technologie5.
It can be solved through analysing present circumstance~ and trends of the future, formulating the most advantageous possible image, and assignmg the ways leading to this image
The tasks of HTFP can be compiled as foiiO\vs:
212 K. T.4.NCZOS and Z. BOKOR
- collection and analysis of information on - world market opportunities,
- trends in (technological) development,
- strengths and weaknesses of the Hungarian economy and R&D system;
- elaboration of a national innovation strategy as a basis to help Hun- garian firms improve their competitiveness;
strengthening the formal and informal relationships between resparchers, businessmen and civil servants;
spreading the co-operative thinking;
su pporting the joining process to the European Union;
- giving recommendations for public policies.
1.2. The lvlethodology of HTFP
HTFP is a holistic foresight programme based on both panel activities (sce- narios, SWOT analyses, recommendations ... ) and a large-scale Delphi sur- vey. The two-year programme is conducted in three stages:
1. pre-foresight - preparing and awaring;
2. main foresight - collecting data, analysis;
3. dissemination - summarizing, recommendations.
Pre-foresight HTFP started in June 1997 by establishing the HTFP office.
A wareness seminars were held across the country to promote this ne\\· con- cept among experts and professionals. Several articles about HTFP were pu blished in newspapers and magazines.
A Steering Group (SG) of 19 leading industrialists, academicians and government officials was set up in October 1997 to oversee the Programme.
The SG accepted the holistic method of foresight mentioned above and de- fined the following panel topics:
Human resources - Health
- Information technologies, telecommunication, media - Natural and built environment
- f.,lfanufacturing and business processes - Agrobusiness and food
- Transport - Finance.
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT ON TRANSPORT
Elaboration of methods, guidelines and panel topics
Nomination of panel members
Fig. 1. The pre-foresight stage of HTFP
213
Panels were formed in March April 1998. Each panel consists of ex- perts of the disciplines who know the international tendencies and practical experience as well.
Fig. 1 shows the steps of pre-foresight stage. iv/ain foresight In the second part of the Programme panels have the tasks to analyse present conditions, to define images and write scenarios, to form Delphi statements, to write a panel report, and to organize professional meetings.
After defining possible images of development, panels have to write scenarios. Scenarios analyse conditions and consequences of different possi- ble events, then set up possible series of actions, which may result in certain images. The most favourable image for the future of the country and its scenario can be chosen by results of Delphi survey and professional meetings.
During the Delphi survey the experts of different professional fields will fill in special questionnaires consisting of Delphi statements and concrete questions. Each panel should define cca. 60 - 80 statements. Typical questions to the statements will be the following:
- respondents' degree of expertise;
- degree of economic impact;
- degree of social impact (quality of life);
214 K. T.4NCZOS and Z. BOKOR
Professional consultations,
programmes
4anelsmee~
Backgroundstudies
I
Trend specification, scenarios
Formulation of Delphi-statement s
Delph i -survey
Analysis, scenario ccrrection
( STEERING GROUP REPORT )
'---~
Fig. 2 The main foresight stage of HTFP
- expected realization time:
- position of Hungary compared to developed European countries (R&D, production and service);
hindering factors (social/ethical limits, technological feasibility, mar- ket limits, profitability limits, not enough state resources/subsidy, reg- ulation/standards, not appropriate education).
By processing data coming from the questionnaires professional pub- lic opinion can be analysed. The results will be taken into consideration when panel reports will be edited. The Delphi survey of HTFP started in March 1999.
The panels have to organise meetings, which help to create a common thinking about sector-specific problems, and to make formal and informal connections stronger.
Panels will have to summarise their research by writing a panel re- port. The panel report outlines the most favourable but, at the same time, realistic image, and also recommendations which can help to reach the de- sirable future.
The Steering Group will complete its final report on the basis of the panel reports. It \vi!! consider the broader dimension of initiatives and priorities across the sectors.
The steps of main foresight are shown by Fig. 2.
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT ON TRANSPORT 215
Dissemination
The completed reports will start an on-going process, the last phase of the Programme, namely dissemination and implementation. This means pub- lications, \vorkshops, seminars and meetings, that should disseminate the results of HTFP. These results are expected to assist firms and enterprises in devising and implementing their strategies to improve competitiveness, to give recommendations for public policies how to realise the most desirable image, and to stimulate continuous constructive dialogue between science, industry and government.
r:;ESULTS
Public relations
Recommendations
Regional meetings
( seminars)
Regional meetings
Fig. 3. The dissemination stage of HTFP
The process of dissemination phase is demonstrated by Pig. 3.
2. Activity of HTFP panel 'Transport' 2.1. Research Results Up to Now
The panel 'Transport' was formed in April 1998. It has the task to identify the main long-term trends in transport fields. The panel consists of se\'eraJ well-known scientists, researchers and experts of transport.
As a beginning of the work the panel was seeking for the most im- portant questions relating to market opportunities and scientific and tech-
216 K. T . .\NCZOS and Z. BOKOR
nological developments supporting them. The panel members had received special questionnaires and they answered questions like:
trends or issues and their driving causes that may influence the trans- port sector up to cca. 2020;
- possible new market opportunities arising from trends or issues;
- possible new products or services to meet the needs of the market opportunities;
- technologies, scientific advances or innovations needed to underpin prod ucts or services.
2.1.1. The Panel Guidelines
The panel guidelines for the analysis were set up on the basis of the system- atised ideas and the general directives of the Steering Group. The analysis guidelines summarise the main research issues concerning the whole trans- port sector and its branches. The main statements of the guidelines:
- Development of the Hungarian transport system will be determined by joining the European Union. vVe have to prepare for law harmonisation and a more competitive transport market. It is important to develop our infrastructure, mainly on the transit corridors.
- Because of the globa!isation of trade the international division of labour will be growing, and therefore logistics will be more and more impor- tant. vVe have to prepare to meet logistic and transport requirements by building logistic centres or business parks, and developing the main transit ways.
Globalisation will make the transport market more competitive: com- panies have to adapt to the changes, to ne\v conditions. Some of the enterprises will probably go bankrupt which leads to a concentration in the transport market (mainly in road transport sector).
- Preferences of 'sustainable development' can influence the changes in modal split. When the more environment-friendly transport forms are supported by the state or the EU, modal split can have different composition from today's in the future (increased share for rail and waterway, and smaller for road transport).
The transport market will be co-ordinated by market forces: liberali- sation has an important role. The state has special co-ordination fields like public transport or internalising externalities, etc., but it prefers market conform regulatory instruments.
- The most important instruments to develop our transport sector more competitive are innovations and R&D. Hungary does not have big de- veloping potential in basic research fields, so it is more reasonable to adopt international R&D results. On the other hand we can achieve
TECHr-:OLOGY FORESIGHT Or-: TRAr-:SPORT 217
ne\\' solutions in special fields like diagnostical appliances, etc., new economic, management methods for increasing the efficiency or effec- tive procedures for different environmental examinations.
The technological development needs well educated and trained human resources it is an important competitive factor of the country. 'Ne should develop our educational methods: the manpower needs mainly new technical, informatical and management knowledge.
The right organisation of transport planning and development can help to avoid territorial inequality. Building of transport infrastructure stimulates industry and trade. which attracts capital and creates work
places.
'Sustainable development' of transport has the main point to protect environment and human life: when planning and developing transport systems aspects of environmental protection and safety have to be taken into consideration. Environment-friendly transport forms, tech- nologies and technical solutions should be supported, externalities of transport should be internalised.
- Financial resources are limited: not all investment opportunities can be financed. Financial and social cost and benefit have to be consid- ered, economical analysis should be taken in the case of every invest- m.ent. Investme'1ts of public interest can be financed by the state, but the others should be realised in financing by pu blic private partner- ship . .\rational capital is not enough, the development needs interna- tional financing as well (EU cohesion funds, credits etc.).
Poor financing of maintaining transport infrastructure can lead to problems: the technical level of the infrastructure will decrease. Trans- port com panies have to adopt new management methods (controlling), and users should pay for using the infrastructure (road pricing on the basis of time, place and distance).
- Informatics and telematics have big developing potential in transport fields. Important areas can be: automatic traffic control, optimalisa- tion of transport organisation, electronic data interchange (EDI), con- trolling information systems, etc. By developing information society transport demand can be reduced, which contributes to sustain ability of long-term development.
- Through the technical development there can appear new prod uction technologies, materials and energy sources in transport. Vehicles of the future will be safer, lighter, more environment-friendly and energy saving. They can be driven by alternative power sources, that are different from the traditional engine: solar cells, electricity, bioenergy or hydrogen cells.
Further guideline statements about the different branches of transport are the following:
218 K. T.J.NGZOS and Z. BOKOR
Road Transport
- Because of joining the ED and the globalisation, liberalisation will go on, the competition will be harder, the environmental requirements on road vehicles will be stricter. In consequence of the former tendencies Hungarian road transport market will be probably more concentrated.
The growing road transit transport needs well built up motorway net- work: the main road network needs to be improved.
Road transport is more flexible, and so more competitive than rail or waterway. According to today's tendency the share of road transport will be growing continuously. This can lead to congestion in certain roads. The problem can be solved by building bypasses, broader use of traffic control systems based on telematics or hy restricting road traffic.
- Road traffic should be safer. It needs safer vehicles. better morals - teaching people how to drive on the ~oad rightly - and intelligent co-ordinating systems.
Road transport causes environmental pollution: traffic should be re- stricted or vehicles should be made less polluting. Technical devel- opment can contribute to solution of this problem: alternative power sources, ne\v recycleable materials and cleaner manufacturing tech- nologies will help to protect our environment.
Railways
- Railway transport should be made more competitive and attractive (the ED prefers this effort), therefore it needs financial and technolog- ical reorganisation, and new market-oriented management attitude.
- It would be important to separate infrastructure and operation. De- veloping infrastructure is a state competence. Operating the network can be practised on market basis. The infrastructure company should provide free access to the network for more operators at least on the main transit lines. Operating companies should pay fee for using the rail infrastructure, which covers maintaining costs. The state should corn pletely cover the costs of pu blic rail services - public services are ordered by the state on the basis of special agreements.
- Joining the European rail network needs interoperability and appro- priate infrastructure. Main lines should be improved, remaining lines should be developed selectively (according to demands). Lines of low transport volume should be closed or given to regional operating com- panies being formed by local authorities.
Railway is not as flexible as road transport, so rail is less competitive.
But rail can improve the quality and make stronger the marketing of special promising activity areas like long-distance international freight transport, complex logistic services, and high speed or suburban pas- senger transport.
TECH:\OLOGY FORESIGHT 0:\ TRANSPORT 219
Rail should improve the efficiency by rationalising the organisation and establishing integrated operation co-ordinating and management controlling information systems.
- Most of rail vehicles are in poor state of repair. Modernising cannot be postponed, but there are not enough financing sources.
- The rail system is not an environment polluting form of transport.
so it couid be preferred by the state through financial or regulational support.
vVaterway
Waterway has a limited role in Hungary. Although ships are environ- ment-friendly means of transport, they are not competitive enough as compared to road or rail. Shipping does not have the appropriate in- frastructure - well built-up ports or well navigable waterways - either.
Ships and shipping technology (push-shipping) must be superseded.
By joining the
Er
transit shipping on the Danube can develop in the long run, but it needs improved port and terminal network, and a safe waterway during the v:hole year. The Hungarian fleet should consist of smaller but more flexible and modern ships. Shipping can be made safer and more efficient through using telematic control systems.Aviation
The Hungarian national airlines are not ready for the complete liberal- isation of the market, they need to be prepared for the new conditions.
Regulation of the air transport and state ownership will be reduced, the national airlines will probably join a big international airline com- pany. There can be established new regional airline companies as well.
Their activity should be extended to the near regions of our neighbour countries, because national air transport in Hungary is not reasonable
the distance of air transport is unlikely to be profitable.
Before the open access the Hungarian airlines should be made more competitive through improving the central airport and the aircraft fleet.
::VIaking too much noise and air pollution are general problems of the air transport. The technical development is likely to result in new man- ufacturing methods and technologies, which makes it possible to build bigger and safer airplanes, and to develop cleaner and less nois~' en- gines.
",vI ultimodal Transport
- ivlultimodal transport does not have a considerable share in transport market, however, it is preferred by the El'. It has many developiYien1 opportunities, mainly in long-distance transit transport. Logistic cen- tres built all over Europe will establish logistic networks, which can be integrated by multimodal transport. Companies organising lnu!ti- modal transport will be concentrating and internationalising
220 K. T . .5.NCZOS and Z. BOKOR
We have to prepare for growing demands and improve multimodal capacity: supply should be given in order to stimulate demand for multimodal transport (dense terminal network, road rail waterway connections, modern and fast vehicles).
IvIultimodal transport is not as flexible as road transport, but through raising service quality and making the co-operation bet\veen different means of transport more efficient it can be more important factor in the transport market of the future.
- YIultimodal transport needs to be supported and stimulated by the state and the EU in order to enforce its advantages: less environmental pollution, more reasonable modal split.
Pipelines
- Pipeline transport has became more and more important for the decades past, because it is safe and cheap. On the other hand, it needs special transport goods. which are mostly oiL natural gas or chemicals.
- It is recommended to extend the connections of our pipeline network to several directions to have smaller dependency.
Urban Transport
Increasing congestion, air pollution and noise cause more and more problems in European big cities. Possible solutions are: city planning, traffic control and organisation - based on information technology - traffic diversion and reduction: restriction of individual car traffic and preferring public transport; making public transport more attractive by increasing supply and quality. These methods should be put into practice in Hungarian cities - mainly in our capital - as well.
- Bringing city planning and traffic organisation into harmony is the competence of the state and the local authorities.
Going by car is generally more convenient than using pu blic transport.
IvIeans of public transport should be modernised, quality level should be improved. Public transport should create attractive supply, an alternative to car. Local authorities have to take part - by giving directions - in making urban modal split more reasonable.
In the months past the panel held several meetings. These meetings were organised as moderated brain storming sessions, and they had the task according to the guidelines - to establish images and then Delphi statements about the future of the Hungarian transport sector.
TECH.'iOLOGY FORESIGHT ON TRASSPORT 221
2.1.2. The Panel Images
The images of the panel were compiled using the analysed and systematised results of the meetings. The images present two different developing direc- tions, the third alternative is a special version of the first one. The images show the possible developing zones of the Hungarian transport sector up to cca. 2020 - 2030.
Image I - optimistic version
Hungary will be quickly integrated into the EU and will be able to adapt itself to globalising world economy. The country will actively take part in international trade and industry, therefore the home transport system will be an integral part of the European logistic/transport system. Economy will develop at a rapid pace, capital import will grow continuously.
The EC-member Hungary will have intensive economic relations with the EU and the neighbouring countries as well. Smaller regions will have many local contacts. Due to previous processes there may appear new de- mand on transporting goods and passengers.
The economic circumstances will make favourable conditions to im- prove transport infrastructure: building motorways in main transit direc- tions, increasing the speed of main rail lines, making main waterways well navigable. Along the Hungarian TEN-corridors logistic centres will be es- tablished. Due to these development steps the quality of the Hungarian transport facilities will come near t~o the European average.
Due to economic development social values will be changing gradually:
environmental requirements will be as important as economic conditions.
This means that principles of 'sustainable development' of transport will be practically realisable, which makes the composition of modal split more environment-friendly. Influencing mobility demand (by mobility manage- ment) and technological development can contrihute to this process.
In the transport the market liberalisation will have a ruling role. State regulations will decrease, but in special fields will be more important: giv- ing general guidelines and conditions, maintaining public transport services, financing certain investments, integrated area and transport planning, en- forcing externalities and environmental/social preferences. Local authorities will have more competence to operate regional transport networks.
The transport market will be more competitive, which makes it essen- tial to increase quality level of services and to develop quality management systems. This process may rearrange the market structure. Stronger road transport and forwarding companies will be bigger. smaller companies will fail: the concentration rate will be growing. Rail infrastructure and operat- ing will be fully separated. The state-owned rail network ,,·:ill be accessible for more operating companies, which will pay for using the infrastructure.
Minor lines of poor transport volume will be operated by regional railway companies. Shipping \vill be operated mainly by international shipping com-
222 1<. T.4"czos and Z. BOI<OR
panies. Infrastructure of air transport will be owned by the state, the H un- garian airlines will be operating as an affiliated company of an international air transport holding. There may appear some regional airlines, too. Ur- ban and suburban public transport will be arranged by local and regional transport associations.
Growth of national economy and international capital investment will give favourable conditions to finance improvements. State will finance in- vestments of social priorities and considerable capital requirements. On other occasions public private partnership (ppp) financing will be; quite widespread.
It will be natural to pay for using the transport infrastructure. Tolls will cover the maintaining costs. Operators of railway network will pay to the state-owned infrastructure company. In road transport tolls \\'ill be based on measuring utilization.
Integration and economic development will make a good background to adopt and widespread use of innovations. Goals of technology development
\vill not only be to improve efficiency and profitability, but to protect human life and environment as well.
Informatics and telematics will gain a widespread use in transport. In road transport the use of board navigating systems helping to choose the right way will be general. Systems based on GPS will help to identify moving vehicles. Due to electronic vehicle registration transport performance will be measurable, which makes tolls well founded. Automatic mainly urban - traffic control systems will provide safe and fast traffic even in jam-packed roads. Development of simulations technics will allow to examine and mode!
traffic flows, which can optimise planning and operative contro!.
Vehicles of public transport will be equipped with passenger informa- tion systems. For passengers personal information systems may be available.
which help to plan journeys.
In rail transport computerisation of transport control and management will be realisecl. Automation of network management will be growing. Ship- ping will be safer by using telematic instruments. Airports and airplanes \\'ill be equipped with automatic navigation devices GPS serving as background.
There may appear new technologies in transport infrastructure net- work building. Road surface will be more long-lasting and less noisy. Rail- way track building will be more mechanised. International rail transport control and energy supply systems will be integrated. 'Waterways can be used more efficiently. Intermodal transport terminals will be well built up and equipped.
Means of transport will be safer, cleaner and more efficient. Engines and construction of road vehicles will be improved continuously. Then there may appear and spread new engine conceptions like hydrogen or solar cells, bioenergy as power source, or electric driven cars. Noise and pollutant emission of cars will be red uced notably.
Construction of rail vehicles will meet the requirements of passengers.
TECH!\OLOGY FORESIGHT ON TRA!\SPORT 223
Composition of goods wagon pool will be modernised and more specialised.
The old ship fleet \vill be replaced by modern and more flexible ships. In- ternational air transport will use planes of big capacity, regional flights will be carried out by modern smaller planes. Air planes will be less polluting and quiet. Modernising of means of intermodal transport will go on.
Demand on well educated transport experts will raise: more-level ed- ucation, high-level technical and management knowledge will be required.
Users of transport systems will be more informed about rules, tariffs, fare reductions, travelling opportunities, etc.
Position of the different transport branches may be the following:
- Road transport is more flexible and has higher service quality than the other sectors of transport, so it will surpass them. By growing of the motorisation certain roads at certain times can be overloaded. To avoid big congestion and environmental damage, transport demand should partly be diverted to alternative branches.
- In rail transport market orientation \vill be growing. The network will be used by more operators, which raises competition and makes service quality higher. Railway companies will be able to adapt themselves to requirements, and to provide complex travelling and logistic services.
Shipping will be carried out by less but more modern instruments.
EDI will gain a \videspread use in shipping.
The role of international and regional air (passenger) transport will be more important. The central airport may become an international freight transport cen tre.
- Intermodal transport will be more profitable: transport organisation and cooperation between different transport companies will be more efficient by using computerised control systems. Intermodal transport may reach a bigger share in the transportation market.
In the urban transport city planning and transport organisation will be brought into harmony, city logistics will be well organised: from the point of view of mobility a better city structure will be developed.
Public transport can provide high-quality services and so an alter- native to car; computerised traffic control will moderate congestion:
there will be no need to considerably reduce individual CcH transport.
It will be important to develop the whole transport system, instead of giving preferences to certain interests. Transport planning and improvement should contribute to equal territorial and regional development and making modal split more reasonable.
Summarised: we manage to establish such a transport system that reaches a compromise between our main goals: high quality of human life, arranged environmental conditions and efficient operation.
Image I/A - consolidated version
The EU-integration of Hungary will be postponed - it requires longer prepa- ration. Hungary will be an entitled member of the EU later, so it will get
224 K. TANCZOS and Z. BOKOR
in a temporary situation and have a rather peripheral status. Our interna- tional economic connections and the capital investments will be developing step by step. The growth of the national economy will be at first moderate, but later it will be accelerated.
As a result of the previous trends the national transport system will be able to reach the quality level which is needed for the integration only later.
The support of transport development will be smaller. The lower grade of integration and economic development make the processes analysed in image I slower.
Image II pessimistic version
Hungary will not be a member of the EU, or very late and at disadvantageous conditions. The country will not participate in international economic pro- cesses, the national economy ',.vill be less opened and our business relations with the developed countries will not be extended significantly. H ungarv
may have a do~inant peripheral role. ~. ~.
The development of our neighbouring countries will be the same as ours: it will be falling behind the European level. The countries of the region \-vill have to develop their internal contacts. The eastern countries of Europe may have anarchic characters, and will be more a.nd more isolated.
Because of the postponement of integration and globalisation there will not be considerable demand for grmvth on transport.
The national economy will stagnate or reach a growth rate of 1 2%
per annum. There will not be considerable capital import either. Therefore there will not be available enough financing resources to realise important infrastructural improvements.
Instead of developing infrastructure there should be made more efforts to use the existing capacity better. Limited financing resources should be used more efficiently. The gap between the Hungarian transport system and that of the EU continues to grow, the national transport will not be able to meet the requirements of interoperability. The road network will not be extended, its quality will get worse. The rail network will not be maintained properly, only some of main lines will be improved. vVatenyays will be less navigable, the capacity of central airport will not be improved, regional airports will not be built up. Realisation progress of logistic centres will be slow, their utilisation will not be considerable.
Society prefers economic development to 'sustainable development', because living standard and welfare conditions will get v;orse. Environ- mental priorities will get of minor importance. Therefore a strong state regulation will be required to stop unfavourable tendencies, but these not market-oriented forced measures will not be enough efficient: the share of road transport will strongly increase, rail will be pushed into the back- ground, and shipping will be marginable.
The failed EU integration means that la\v harmonisation cannot be realised in transport sector: unregulated and unfair conditions may dom- inate in transport market, social interests cannot be enforced. The state
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT ON TRANSPORT 225
will have a rather problem solver role: possible enforcing of environmen- tal priorities, deficit financing of public transport services, and financing of necessary investments.
Because of the failed globalisation, the transport market will not be competitive enough. The road transport and forwarding market will remain rather divided (many small enterprises, lower concentration). The rail sector will be dominated by state-owned national operator, which needs financial support again and again. Shipping will be operated at low transport vol- umes. The national airlines will be able to survive at strong state preferences and support.
The limited financing resources will not allow to realise many invest- ments: improvement alternatives should be analysed thoroughly. Financing
" .. ill be carried out mainly by state, participation of private capital will be rather marginab!e.
Using and financing transport facilities will not be connected: the soCiety will not accept tolls. ?vIaintaining costs and their resources \,'ill be independent, which will lead to financing problems. These problems wil!
require state support.
The lower rate of national economic development, the lower capi- tal concentration and the peripheral state of the country will not provide chances to the technological development, but the critical state of trans- port infrastructure will require at least a minimum level of innovation. The adoption of new technologies can be carried out only later, which results in IO'wer improvement of efficiency.
The extended use of informatic and telematic instruments will be un- avoidable. Congestion in roads will be a considerable problem, which needs a solution of computer integrated traffic control. The rail should improve its transport organisation and management systems in order to become more competitive. The international standards of aviation will require the im- provement of air navigation and information systems.
Instead of development of transport networks the maintenance will be more emphasised. Protection of the national infrastructure from bacbvard- ness is to be solved.
The composition of vehicle stock will be generally unadvantageous.
The average age of cars and lorries wi:! not fall significantly, more modern and environment-friendly, safer types of vehicles can gain a widespread use only later. Rail will have many obsolete locomotives and waggons, which need to be sorted out. The old vehicles of poor state make the rail less competitive and attractive. The old technology of shipping will not be com- petitive. Air transport will be carried out by old planes as well. Instruments of multimodal transport cannot be improved, because of the unprofitability of this transport form.
The educational level of human resources will remain rather low - there are neither demand nor chance to develop education on transport. There will not exist information channels to inform people about transport facilities.
226 K. T.4NCZOS and Z. BOKOR
The Hungarian transport system will be less competitive than the ones of EU-member countries. Under these hard circumstances position of trans- port branches may be more differentiated than in the previous versions:
- Road transport will enforce its advantages (profitability and flexibility) over other branches more intensively, and so will be able to increase its share in transport market. Congestion will be more intensive. and old vehicles will cause serious environmental damages. Society ''Nill not be aware of these problems, and there will not exist alternatives undeveloped rail and waterway to pass demand into other branches.
The state regulation itself will not be able to stop these dangerous tendencies.
- Efficiency of rail transport will be hardly better, its organisation and management \yill be improved rather slov;ly. The national railway company will require continuous state subsidies. The minor lines of small transport volume will be liquidated gradually. The rail transport system will not be able to stop decreasing demands.
Transport volume of waterway transport will be marginable. Because of missing infrastructure and low service quality the demands will strongly decrease.
- Our national airlines operate at strong state support, but it will be more and more defenceless in international competition.
- Because of its poor profitability intermodal transport will not be a competitive transport form, its deficit will be financed by the state.
Intermodal transport v;ill not be able to offer appropriate service, so its role will be smaller and smaller.
Urban transport networks will not be able to cope with increasing traffic, environmental pollution and congestion will be growing. De- creasing quality level of public transport will not stimulate people to change for tramway or bus. Traffic may be partially and periodically reduced.
The goals of national transport planning will be subordinated to some priorities instead of coping with problems of the whole transport system.
Territorial development differences cannot be moderated, which can lead to social tensions. There will not be many possibilities to influence the unadvantageous modal split either.
The national transport system may get into a dangerous process, which makes it impossible to keep up with developed countries.
The combination of different trends mentioned in the images can lead, of course, to other image versions.
The images were sent to the panel members and to other experts, who expressed their opinion about it. Considering the comments corrections were made to specify the ideas about the transport development.
TECHi\OLOGY FORESIGHT ON TRANSPORT 227
2.1.3. The Delphi Statements
On grounds of the images several Delphi statements were formed for the Delphi survey. From these statements .')8 were picked out by the panel, which will represent the images. The distribution of selected statements is shown in Table 1.
Table 1. The distribution of Delphi statements Transport branch I Number of statements the whole transport system I 13
the road transport I I 16 the rail transport
I
9 the waterway transport 2
the air transport 3
the intermodal transport 3 the urban transport I 9
I
L
I 552.2. Further Tasks of the Panel
The Steering Group and the Direction of HTFP are going to make a sce- nario about the possible general trends of Hungarian development (called general macro scenario). The alternatives of the macro scenario give a spe- cial 'frame' to the panels, which helps to create their own scenarios.
The panel has the task now to prepare for scenario building on trans- port development. Main topics have to be defined, which need to be exam- ined in detail by writing background studies and holding professional meet- ings. There should be defined considerable (technological) turning points with their effects, and the strengths and weaknesses of Hungarian transport system. The topics are the following:
1. How will/can the transport demand develop in Hungary up to 2020 - 2030?
2. Should we influence/reduce/rationalise transport demand on mobility?
If yes, then how? How will mobility change through developing the 'information societv'?
3. What will the attitude of society be to 'sustainable development'?
Will it influence modal split'?
4. How will/can the modal split develop? Should we influence the teE- dencies? If yes, then how?
5. What tasks should the state have in transport regulation/development;
financing?
228 K. T.4NCZOS and Z. BOKOR
6. What conditions will be ruling in transport market of the future? ·Will it be more or less competitive? How will these conditions influence service quality and market structure?
7. VVhat development steps are needed to improve national transport infrastructure? What order of priority can be settled between them?
8. vVhat financing opportunities and constructions will the infrastructure development have in the future?
9. How will the maintenance of transport infrastructure be financed?
Will tolls have an important role?
10. How will informatics and telematics be used in transport?
11. What kind of ne\v technologies will be applied in building transport networks?
12. What technological innovations can influence designing vehicles?
13. vVhat kind of educating methods will be able to contrIbute to estab- lishment of a well-prep~red expert staff on transport?
14. How can territorial development and transport planning be brought into harmony? How can transport development contribute to reducing regional inequality?
The panel is going to invite experts to write studies on topics men- tioned above, and organise professional meetings as well. In these meetings experts from universities, research institutes, transport companies, govern- ment organs, chambers and other interests protection organisations can dis- cuss the main issues, which contributes to panel's work, to making scenarios.
Starting point of scenarios will be the panel images and the general macro scenario. Then several possible future turning points and main events will have to be defined and ordered into series of actions and events. In the scenarios the possible interfering opportunities should also be shown and analysed.
The results of Delphi survey will help to choose the most appropriate image of transport development by asking several experts on transport.
After the most possible image - and so the most possible scenario based on the image - has been chosen, recommendations can be made, how to take advantage of possible opportunities and how to avoid possible dangers.
3. Macro Scenarios for Transport Policy
In this phase of the work - according to the main conclusions of the profes- sional workshops, the background studies and the international experience - three macro scenarios of the transport development have been identified to meet the targets for 2020-2030. The scenarios are designed to show dif- ferent combinations of policy alternatives, combining strategic and external elements.
The strategic elements are the following:
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT ON TRANSPORT 229
- technological improvements, ne,\, fuels. improved load factors and modal shifts (Technology);
- decrease in transport intensity of GDP, that will allow the volume of transport to increase at a rate which is less than the economy at large (Decoupling) .
All scenarios rely on both strategies, but in different proportions.
Three combinations of strategic elements are used:
1. fast dissemination of cleaner technologies and fuels combined with a moderate degree of decoupling (Technology+++/Decoupling+);
2. a moderate pace of technological improvements combined with a con- siderable degree of decoupling (Technology+ /Decoupling+++);
3. both fast technological improvements and a considerable degree of decou pling (Technology++ /Decou pling++).
The external elements - A succesful handling of many environmental problems requires agreements and cooperation outside the market, either by political intervention or by 'grassroots' initiatives by those affected, or some combination of both. Hence the attitudes towards cooperation in society will affect the possibilities of meeting the targets - three alternatives are distinguished:
1. Local cooperation: polarisation at the global level, politics is mainly driven by local and regional initiatives (bottom-up politics). Local and regional aspects are high on the political agenda, 'xhile global issues are a bit lower down.
2. Global cooperation: free trade and striving for consensus on environ- mental issues. At the local and regional levels the attitudes towards cooperation are more passive, as the politic agenda is mainly driven by national and ED politicians. The focus is more on high level problems (top-down politics).
:3. Glocal (Global - Local) cooperation: promotes an accord between lo- cal, regional and supranational initiatives and objectives a kind of harmony bet\veen bottom-up and top-down politics.
The possible macro scenarios are shown Table 2.
The scenarios result from the combination of the three strategies based on cooperation at the local, global and combined levels, together with dif- fering levels of technological development and decoupling. In total there are nine combinations, from which three have been selected for further detailed development:
- Scenario T2 has been chosen as the most interesting and internally coherent case in column 1 where technology will be pushed hardest - this is Global Cooperation for Sustainable Transport.
230 K. T.4NCZOS and Z. BOKOR
Table 2. The nine scenarios obtained from combining the two dimensions (selected scenarios in bold)
Technology+++ / Technology+ / Technology++ / Decoupling+ Decoupling+++ Decoupling++ I
Local cooperation Tl Dl TDl
Global cooperation I T2 D2 TD2
'Glocal' cooperation I T3 D3 TD3
- Scenario Dl has been chosen from column 2 where decoupling is seen as being most important this is Co-ordination of Active Citizens.
- Scenario TD3 has been chosen from column 3 where a balance is sought between technology and decoupling - this is the Accord on Sustain- ability.
4. Conclusion
As the country is undergoing fundamenta.l economic and social changes - transition towards market economy -. major institutions are currently shaped. Therefore a systematic analysis of the future has to be done to assess Hungary's future position.
Hungary has joined the developed countries having launched foresight programmes. The HTFP is the first foresight programme in Central and Eastern European transition economies. Technology foresight is being made on several branches of the economy, on transport as well. The research re- sults of HT FP panel 'Transport' can help to plan future trends or tenden- cies, and necessary influencing measures on transport fields by stimulating co-operation between science and practice.
References
[1J Technology Foresight: a Review of Recent Government Exercises, Summary Report of the OECD Meeting held on 14 September 1994. OECD Science Technology Industry (STI) Review, No. 17, pp. IS-50, 1994.
[2] GEORGHlOU, L. (1996): The DK Technology Foresight Programme. Futures, Vo!. 28, No. 4, pp. 359-377.
(3) HAVAS, A. (1998): The Hungarian Technology Foresight Programme. HTFP (TEP) Office.
!
:6~l I'vlethodology of the HTFP (TEP). HT FP (TEP) Office, 1998.v Studies, minutes of meetings and research reports of HTFP panel 'Transport', 1998.
BANISTER, D. DREBORG, K. (1998): Development of Transport Policy Scenarios for the ED. The Bartlett School of Planning, University College London & Environmental Strategies Research Group/FOA, Stockholm, Sweden.
