NATURAL RESOURCE ECONOMICS
Sponsored by a Grant TÁMOP-4.1.2-08/2/A/KMR-2009-0041 Course Material Developed by Department of Economics,
Faculty of Social Sciences, Eötvös Loránd University Budapest (ELTE) Department of Economics, Eötvös Loránd University Budapest
Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences Balassi Kiadó, Budapest
NATURAL RESOURCE ECONOMICS
Week 10
Energy
Gábor Ungvári
•
Energy sources•
Transfers between sources•
Effects of governmental policy on usage•
Regulation failuresPeak oil? – how much time is left for adaptation?
• Resource fluctuation, exhaustion- re-structuring?
• Max exploitation and exhaustion is not the same
• Grow of demand increasing 1,76%/year between 1994–2006. 3,4%/year
2003–2004; average 2,6%/year 2006–2030; 2015? Excess demand?
• Transportation 55%, residential, trade, industrial.
• Oil production/capita was highest in 1970s
Smooth transfers?
• Energy returned on energy invested – decreasing rates
• Energy demand of agricultural production – chemical manure used to maintain high yields – decreasing relative area
• Jevons paradox
• Governmental politics
– Distorting prices – maximizing it can cause supply problems
– Distorting prices – alongside selective subsidizing of
technologies – speeding up transfer?
Expectations
Temporary? Energy sources
• Nuclear, coal
• Rise of another single dominant energy source is not likely.
• Demands differentiated, blurring of energy curves – electric power can be produced by more varied methods, and the using limitations are disappearing as well
• Technological innovation: expansion of intelligent networks – network inputs – managing capacity
• Niche markets uncovered by organisational solutions
• Unexploited opportunities of regulating demand side – more sophisticated regulation
Cost comparison
Distribution of costs of different electricity-production technologiesEUR(2005)/MWh
Environmental considerations of energy use
•
Fossil-based•
Ecological impacts of exploitation–
Mining, cables•
Ecological impacts of energy production–
Air pollution–
Impacts on climate•
Nuclear (location, defects)• Renewables (biomass, wind, solar, hydro, thermal energy)
• Wind
– Construction, accessibility, noise, scenery
• Solar energy
– ? scenery, habitat
• Geothermal
– mineral-concentration of used cool water
– Opportunity cost of alternative use
– Impacts on subsoil water reserves
• Hydro energy
– Impacts on the river and its the eco-system of its valley
– Impacts on groundwater level, riverbank filtrated reserves
• Biomass
– Opportunity cost of land use
– Impacts on variety and complexity
Wind
• Development was started in the wake of the oil crisis of the 1970s – growing popularity in the second half of the 1990s
• Growing capacity – from 50–100 kW to 1,5-2 MW
• Risk
– 21%–41% exploitation rate on land.
– 34%-43% off-shore
• The network has to be able to adapt to receiving fluctuating input and manage periods of calm wind as well.
• Puffer capacities? Regulating demand side?
• Uncertainty of forecast
Solar energy
• Distribution of PV solar energy capacity GW 2009 (REN21, 2010)
• Ratio of renewable technologies within the renewable energy production in the EU27 states 2008,
This does not include heat-use from solar collectors (e.g. hot water)
• Energy-production from renewable energy sources EU27, 2008, GWh
Geothermal energy
• Almost 900 wells 340em3/daily capacity
• Below 40°C half of the wells
• 40°C-60°C quarter of the wells
• Above 90°C is 4%
• One-third bath or medicinal water, half of it combined agricultural, industrial, residential use
• One-third of the overall thermal water body has bad qualification according to the WFD
• Quantity problems depending on type – comprehensive or local sinking
• How to allocate? Needs to be managed by water-quantity and temperature as well.
– Pl in the case of Hévíz, SE Hungary
– Reinjection – regulatory problem – complexity does not allow for this
Hydro-power usage
• A permanent conflict without any aspects.
• No commitment to future plans and no willingness to clarify.
• Damming is a tool, we won’t be able to specify goals for a long while.
• The question is not without problems elsewhere either, but at least there are attempts.
Hydropower dams
Altered flow regime in downstream river
Altered water level fluctuation
in reservoir Structural barrier to
the movement of aquatic fauna
Altered structure and condition of bed, banks & riparian zone
in downstream river
Altered physico- chemical conditions in
reservoir Altered physico-
chemical conditions in downstream river
Risk of fish entrainment in turbine intakes
Altered structure of reservoir shore zone
habitats
Biomass
• Ethanol – corn, soy prices (land-size)
• Firewood prices, Hungary
• From wood, herbaceous plants
• Biodiesel manufacture, over-production compared to the quantity of oily nuts + other use and export – impact of unused on producing keep
• Bioethanol – attractive, because it is based on current plough-produce
• Due to the comestibles the
demand for biofuel is not met (Gy.I. p49)
• Biogas – waste depository and waste-water neutralizers
• Finite lands – competition of food industry and natural eco-systems with the energy demand – relocation to outside EU
• Finite water reserves – competing modes of use
