The goal of hypothesis testing is to determine the likelihood that a population parameter, such as the mean, is likely to be true5: Hungary watch an average of 3 hours of TV per week. This is a starting point so that we can decide whether this is likely to be true, similar to the presumption of innocence in a courtroom. When a defendant is on trial, the
The null hypothesis (H(0)), stated as the null, is a statement about a population parameter, such as the population mean, that is assumed to be true. The null hypothesis is a starting point. We will test whether the value stated in the null hypothesis is likely to be true.
Keep in mind that the only reason we are testing the null hypothesis is because we think it is wrong. We state what we think is wrong about the null hypothesis in an alternative hypothesis. For the children watching TV example, we may have reason to believe that children watch more than (>) or less than (<) 3 hours of TV per week. When we are uncertain of the direction, we can state that the value in the null hypothesis is not equal to (≠) 3 hours.
An alternative hypothesis (H1) is a statement that directly contradicts a null hypothesis by stating that that the actual value of a population parameter is less than, greater than, or not equal to the value stated in the null hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis states what we think is wrong about the null hypothesis, which is needed for Step 2.
5.2. 5.5.2 Set the criteria for decision
7Set the criteria for a decision. The likelihood or level of significance is typically set at 5% in behavioral research studies. When the probability of obtaining a sample mean is less than 5% if the null hypothesis were true, then we conclude that the sample we selected is too unlikely and so we reject the null hypothesis.
The alternative hypothesis establishes where to place the level of significance. Remember that we know that the sample mean will equal the population mean on average if the null hypothesis is true. All other possible values of the sample mean are normally distributed (central limit theorem). The empirical rule tells us that at least 95%
of all sample means fall within about 2 standard deviations (SD) of the population mean, meaning that there is less than a 5% probability of obtaining a sample mean that is beyond 2 SD from the population mean.
5.3. 5.5.3 State the hypotheses
8 statistic is used to make a decision in Step 4.5.4. 5.5.4 Make a decision
9We use the value of the test statistic to make a decision about the null hypothesis. The decision is based on the probability of obtaining a sample mean, given that the value stated in the null hypothesis is true. If the probability of obtaining a sample mean is less than 5% when the null hypothesis is true, then the decision is to reject the null hypothesis. If the probability of obtaining a sample mean is greater than 5% when the null hypothesis is true, then the decision is to retain the null hypothesis. In sum, there are two decisions a researcher can make:
1. Reject the null hypothesis. The sample mean is associated with a low probability of occurrence when the null hypothesis is true.
2. Retain the null hypothesis. The sample mean is associated with a high probability of occurrence when the null hypothesis is true.
The probability of obtaining a sample mean, given that the value stated in the null hypothesis is true, is stated by the p value. The p value is a probability: It varies between 0 and 1 and can never be negative. In Step 2, we stated the criterion or probability of obtaining a sample mean at which point we will decide to reject the value stated in the null hypothesis, which is typically set at 5% in behavioral research. To make a decision, we compare the p value to the criterion we set in Step 2.
7 www.sagepub.com/upm-data/40007_Chapter8.pdf (5.5.2 Chapter)
8 www.sagepub.com/upm-data/40007_Chapter8.pdf (5.5.3 Chapter)
9 www.sagepub.com/upm-data/40007_Chapter8.pdf (5.5.4 Chapter)
When the p value is less than 5% (p < 0,05), we reject the null hypothesis. We will refer to p 0< 0,05 as the criterion for deciding to reject the null hypothesis, although note that when p = 0,05, the decision is also to reject the null hypothesis. When the p value is greater than 5% (p > 0,05), we retain the null hypothesis. The decision to reject or retain the null hypothesis is called significance. When the p value is less than 0,05, we reach significance; the decision is to reject the null hypothesis. When the p value is greater than 0,05, we fail to reach significance; the decision is to retain the null hypothesis.
6. References and further reading
1. Cresswell, John. W. (2008): Research Design; Qualitative, Quantitative and Mixed Methods Approaches.
Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publication
2. Kumar, R. (2005): Research Methodology: A step by step Guide for Beginners. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publication
3. Lehmann, E. L. & Romano, J. P., (2008). Testing Statistical Hypothesis. New York: Springer Publishing Company
4. Intoduction to Hypothesis Testing: www.sagepub.com/upm-data/40007_Chapter8.pdf
5. Research Methodology: www.iilm.edu/iilm-online/Research%20Methodology%20Self-Learning%20Manual.pdf
6. The Review of Literature for Research:
www.uncp.edu/home/acurtis/Courses/ResourcesForCourses/LitReview.html 7. What is the Scientific Hypothesis? Definition of Hypothesis:
www.livescience.com/21490-what-is-a-scientific-hypothesis-definition-of-hypothesis.html
7. Questions for Chapter 5
1. Define the term Hypothesis and explain its importance.
2. Explain the difficulties encountered in Formulation of a Hypothesis. How can these difficulties be removed.
3. Explain the steps in Testing a Hypothesis.
4. What are the Conditions of a Good hypothesis?
5. The decision in hypothesis testing is to retain or reject which hypothesis: the null or alternative hypothesis?
6. The criterion or level of significance in behavioral research is typically set at what probability value?
7. If the null hypothesis is rejected, then did we reach significance?
8. Defines the concept null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis, level of significance, test statistic, p value, and statistical significance.
6. fejezet - 6. Preparing thre research design
Once the research problem has been identified, the researcher proceeds to prepare a research design. According to Russell Ackoff, ―research design is the process of making decisions before a situation arises in which the decision has to be carried out‖. It is the conceptual framework within which the research would be carried out. It is a key aspect as it binds the research project together. Its aim is to provide for the collection of relevant information with minimal expenditure of effort, time and money1.
But, whether this can be achieved depends upon a large extent on the research purpose, classified into four categories: (i) Exploratory; (ii) Description; (iii) Diagnosis; and (iv) Experimentation. For an exploratory research study, a flexible research design is more appropriate as it provides ample scope for researching various aspects of a problem. For a research paper, which requires an accurate description, the research design should be formulated in such a way that, it is unbiased and vouches for the reliability of the collected data and analyzed2. There are various kinds of research designs, such as, experimental (independent variable is manipulated) and non-experimental (independent variable is not manipulated) hypothesis-testing. Experimental designs can be further grouped into informal and formal. Informal experimental design normally uses a less sophisticated form of analysis. It includes: before and after without control design; after only with control design; before and after with control design. Formal experimental design offers relatively more control and uses precise statistical procedures for analysis. It includes: completely randomized design; randomized block design; Latin square design; and factorial designs3.
While preparing a research design, the following factors are taken into consideration4: 1. Objectives of the research study;
2. Means of obtaining the information;
3. Tools for data collection;
4. Data analysis (qualitative and quantitative);
5. Time available for each stage of the research; and 6. Cost involved for the research.
A well-planned research design serves as a blueprint for the researcher even before he actually starts working on his research. This helps him to decide his course of action during various stages of the research, thus saving his time and resources5.