The situation of graduate employment – again – has been quite favourable. The 2008 economic crisis affected the unemployment rates of employees of all levels of educational attainment. If we take a look at the unemployment rate of the age group of 25-34-year-olds (i.e. from the perspective of graduates:
young people in their first jobs) in Figure 5.1, the 1.6% unemployment rate in 2000 was almost quadrupled by 2010, peaking at 6.3%; then it was reduced after the crisis, diminishing to 3.4% by 2015.
As demonstrated by the figure, this trend was even more pronounced among people with a lower educational attainment. In 2010, the unemployment rate of those with an upper secondary educational attainment rose to 11.4% while that of people with a below upper secondary education reached 32.6%.
It is quite evident that the unemployment rate of young people (emphasized by the government’s official documents in 2010) was significantly lower than that of people with a lower educational attainment. On the other, the former was not due to some kind of structural disruption in higher education, but it was triggered by the economic crisis, and since the end of the crisis, it has substantially moderated (however, this moderation cannot yet follow from the higher education reforms, for the effects of the latter could not have manifested themselves by 2015)20.
Figure 5.1 Unemployment rates by educational attainment (25-34 year-olds), 2000-2015
Source: own production based on Education at a Glance 2010 and 2015 (in both: Table A5.4)
The evolution of employment rates21 in Figure 5.2 shows this trend even more markedly. The high employment rate of young graduates practically returned to its earlier level by 2015, thus – although the employment rate of people with an upper secondary educational attainment outperformed the 2005 level (which could be put down mostly to public employment), the employment rate of young graduates was still the highest among all groups of educational attainment.
20 It should be added that this comparison draws a parallel between young graduates and groups of lower educational attainment who have much more years of labour market experience.
21 Labour economists consider the employment rate a much more reliable indicator than unemployment that is often harder to measure.
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0
2000 2005 2010 2015
Unemployment rate (%) Below upper secondary
attainment
Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary attainment
Tertiary attainment
Figure 5.2 Employment rates by educational attainment (25-34 year-olds), 2000-2015
Source: own production based on Education at a Glance 2010 and 2015 (in both: Table A5.3)
These trends are a clear indication of the fact that the national higher education output is almost entirely absorbed by the economy: there are no disruptions in employment.
Figure 5.3 Relative earning rates of the tertiary attainment relative to the upper secondary education attainment (%) , 2005-2014
Source: own production based on Education at a Glance from the year following the given year 0,0
10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0
2000 2005 2010 2015
Employment rate (%) Below upper secondary
attainment
Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary attainment Tertiary attainment
0 50 100 150 200 250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Relative earning rates relative to the upper secondary education attainment (%)
Below upper
secondary attainment (25-64 year-olds) Tertiary attainment (25-64 year-olds) Below upper
secondary attainment (25-34 year-olds) Tertiary attainment (25-34 year-olds)
If we examine the relative earning rates22, there is barely any sign of the economic recession. Figure 5.3, which examines those with a tertiary attainment in two groups (as 25-34-year-olds and as 25-64-year-olds) demonstrates that the earning rate advantage of the entire age group with a tertiary attainment went down mildly in 2013, but then it began to grow again, and it was above 200% in 2014. At the same time, the earning rate advantage of young employees decreased continuously from 2005, but it was still nearly 180% in 2013 in comparison with those with an upper secondary attainment.
Concerning the monthly earnings of the individual fields, Figure 5.4 reveals that there have not been any major changes or reshuffling in the course of the past ten years. Those with a degree in law, computer science or economics are in the lead in terms of monthly earnings, followed by graduates in technology and natural sciences, while doctors and teachers come at the end of the line.
Figure 5.4 Total monthly earnings of occupations, 2005-2015 (HUF/month)
Source: own production based on the figures of the Labour Database (http://nfsz.munka.hu/engine.aspx?page=afsz_stat_adattar)
In light of the above figures, it is no wonder (also pointed out somewhat disapprovingly by the so-called higher education strategy) that those secondary school students who have the best scores tend to pursue their studies in social sciences programmes.
All in all, the minor dip in the employment rate of graduates caused by the economic recession (which was much less significant than in other categories of educational attainment) has disappeared by now, and people with a tertiary attainment, including young people, display quite favourable employment trends. Similarly, concerning the earning rates, it can be stated that the relative earning rate advantage of graduates has barely moderated. There is no change in terms of the individual occupational fields:
22 In this figure, we compare the earnings of those with lower than secondary educational attainment and those with tertiary educational attainment with the earnings of those with secondary educational attainment (100%).
0
the income of graduates in technology and natural sciences – with the exception of computer science – is lower than that of lawyers and economists while the income of doctors and teachers continues to lag behind at the end of the income ranking.