Inventory aCCuMulatIon

The sharp fall in production during the crisis was followed by a gradual downsizing of corporate inventories. In line with the turnaround of the economy, the destocking observed in the national economy has come to a halt in recent quarters − primarily as a result of growing inventories in manufacturing. However, inventories have not been replenished yet. Prudent inventory-building behaviour may also be justified by the weak corporate lending environment and fragile domestic demand prospects; as a result, no substantial demand effect is expected in relation to the replenishment of inventories in the short run (chart 4-12).

The contribution of changes in inventories and other unspecified expenditure components to domestic growth was exceptionally significant in Q4. However, this did not result from a change in inventory-building behaviour, but rather from increased uncertainties on the expenditure side of GDP measurement. The substantial contribution of this item highlights the significant measurement uncertainties surrounding some key expenditure items. This issue is expected to be resolved by the ex-post review of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office.

4.1.6 DIreCt Central GovernMent DeManD

Direct central government consumption demand has been highly heterogeneous in recent quarters. The gradual expansion of government employment programmes increased community consumption, while the ongoing cost reductions of government bodies and municipalities curbed other government consumption. The sharp increase observed in transfers in kind in h2 can be partly attributed to base effects and partly to a subsequent addressing of the tensions seen in the financing of certain sectors (primarily healthcare) (Chart 4-13).

Chart 4-11

new dwelling construction permits, dwellings put to use (1993−2010)

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Number of dwelings Number of dwelings

Number of new dwelling construction permits Number of dwellings put to use

Chart 4-12

Inventories as percentage of GDp (1999−2010)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 As percentage of GDP

Inventories/GDP (1) estimated from inventories statistics of Central Statistical Office

Inventories/GDP (2) estimated from national accounts Dashed line=historical average.

Chart 4-13

Changes in government consumption (2005−2010)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Per cent (annual changes)

Social transfer in kind

Final consumption of government

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

in november 2010 the central Statistical office issued its new publication of the national accounts of hungary, which includes comparable data for the period 1995−2009. the forecast presented in the march issue of the inflation report was prepared by incorporating this revised information base. This box describes the most important changes affecting GDP statistics.⁷

The published data revision reflects corrections resulting from the regular data reviews pertaining to previous years on the one hand, and methodological enhancements on the other hand, of which three enhancements exerted a significant impact on GDP and its items:

• the consumer base of fiSim (financial services indirectly measured) has been reduced and, consequently, money-market funds and non-resident financial institutions were removed from the circle of FISIM consumers. In another change, as opposed to the previous method of being deflated by the consumer price (sub)index of financial services, current price loan and deposit holdings are now deflated by the general consumer price index. The improvements in the calculation of FISIM readjust the value of GDP retrospectively until as far back as 1995.

• the accounting for eu cereal interventions has been modified in that the whole amount of product subsidy and the costs of holding cereal inventories are now recorded in the production account.

• another change concerns the import of goods. as GDp calculations are based primarily on the production approach, changes in relation to the CIF/FOB⁸ adjustment have no direct effect on the value of GDP (the CSO ensured consistency between the two sides by the adjustment of the statistical deviation).

Box 4-1

effect of national account revisions

7 For a detailed description of the changes see the latest relevant publication of the CSO on the following website:

http://portal.ksh.hu/pls/ksh/docs/hun/xftp/idoszaki/monsz/monsz0709.pdf.

8 Cif: (i.e. cost, insurance and freight price) the price of goods delivered at the frontier of the importing country, including any insurance and freight charges incurred to that point.

Fob: the market value of goods at the customs frontier of the country from which they are exported, including freight and insurance costs to that point.

table 4-1

annual growth of main GDp expenditure items Household

consumption expenditure

Government consumption

Gross fixed capital formation

export Import GDp

revision before after before after before after before after before after before after

1996 −3.5 −3.5 −3.5 −3.4 3.8 3.8 11.1 11.1 9.1 9.0 1.0 0.7

1997 1.6 1.6 0.1 0.4 6.5 6.5 20.9 21.0 22.3 22.2 4.3 3.9

1998 4.3 3.7 0.5 −0.3 11.5 11.5 16.5 16.5 22.9 22.9 5.2 4.8

1999 6.4 6.3 2.8 2.4 6.0 6.0 11.1 11.1 12.3 12.3 4.2 4.1

2000 4.1 4.1 0.2 0.5 7.2 7.2 19.7 19.7 18.0 18.0 4.9 4.9

2001 6.6 6.6 0.9 1.4 4.7 4.7 8.1 8.0 5.3 5.4 4.1 3.8

2002 10.8 10.9 5.5 5.3 10.5 10.5 3.9 3.8 6.8 6.7 4.4 4.1

2003 8.4 8.7 4.1 4.0 2.1 2.1 6.2 6.2 9.3 9.3 4.3 4.0

2004 3.0 3.0 −0.1 −0.3 7.9 7.9 15.0 15.0 13.7 14.3 4.9 4.5

2005 3.2 3.2 −0.1 0.0 5.7 5.7 11.3 11.3 7.0 7.1 3.5 3.2

2006 1.9 2.1 4.9 4.7 −3.6 −3.2 18.6 18.6 14.8 14.8 4.0 3.6

2007 0.3 0.2 −4.3 −4.2 1.6 1.7 16.2 16.2 13.3 13.3 1.0 0.8

2008 −0.5 0.5 −0.3 0.1 0.4 2.9 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 0.6 0.8

2009 −7.6 −8.1 1.0 2.2 −6.5 −8.0 −9.1 −9.6 −15.4 −14.6 −6.3 −6.7

average 2.8 2.8 0.8 0.9 4.1 4.2 11.1 11.0 10.4 10.5 2.9 2.6

MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK

As a result of data revisions and methodological improvements, the average growth rate of the Hungarian economy decelerated by 0.3 of a percentage point in the period 1996−2010. as the revision applies to a longer time period, not only the growth rate of the specific years was revised downward, but also the potential growth rate of the Hungarian economy. The shifts did not affect the internal items of GDP significantly; predominantly, they reduced the growth contributions of changes in inventories and other unspecified items of expenditure.

only 2008 and 2009 saw substantial structural changes. in 2008 household consumption improved by one percentage point, and the time series of gross fixed capital formation was significantly revised as well. as regards 2009, the more favourable base in 2008 may have contributed to the deterioration of the year-on-year performance of consumption and investment, while net exports declined for foreign trade and the volume index of government consumption was revised upward.

national output increased slightly in Q4 2010 (chart 4-14).

GDp grew by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter.

Despite its fall at the end of the year − attributed mostly to temporary factors − industrial output expanded steadily in the course of 2010, owing to strong external demand. in contrast, the performance of sectors dependent on domestic demand was subdued.

At the same time, special taxes imposed on certain sectors were paid in Q4. These taxes reduce the value added at basic prices of the sectors concerned and render the interpretation of the figures rather difficult. Excluding these effects, the output of services sectors may have grown slightly faster at the end of the year. Among the smaller private sector branches, in 2010 construction industry declined steadily, while the performance of agriculture was poor owing to adverse weather conditions.

Although GDP increased continuously in the course of the past five quarters, it is still well below its pre-crisis peak.

The value added of industry and the services sector was considerably lower in Q4 2010 than at the beginning of 2008. however, the production dynamics of these two sectors are different. Industry, typically affected by stronger cyclical fluctuations, has been on the rise after a decline of 20 percent. in contrast, the services sector exhibits signs of protracted stagnation.

The rapid growth in industrial output may have continued in early 2011 (chart 4-15). confidence indices suggest that the upswing observed in global industrial activity may continue. Moreover, the new export orders of the Hungarian industrial sector increased substantially in the last few months of 2010. in contrast, domestic sales dropped in Q4.

This indicates that within the sector there may be a pronounced difference in the situation of export-oriented firms and those producing for the domestic market.