Given the trends observed over the past decade, it is unsurprising that confidence in democracy and the rule of law in Hungary was low even before the Fidesz government’s response to the Coronavirus pandemic. Half of those surveyed believe that the state of democracy has deteriorated in Hungary over the past decade, compared to 17%
who see it has having improved and 27% who believe there is no noticeable difference. There are almost two completely balanced camps in response to the question of whether Hungary remains a democracy: 48% say there is still democracy in Hungary, compared to 47% who say it is no longer a proper democracy.
Overall, after a decade in power Viktor Orbán and his government retain a relatively high degree of popularity with their own supporters, although political polarisation seems to have intensified in that timeframe. While the government can point to their successes in certain policy areas, such as family support, their record on healthcare and tackling inequality leaves them vulnerable to criticism – even from their own supporters. With the effects of the Coronavirus pandemic likely to be keenly felt for the foreseeable future, one has to question whether those Fidesz supporters already critical of the government’s record are likely to become even more so, and if they will consider supporting the opposition instead.
If so, 2021 could see the policy failures of the Orbán regime become increasingly politically salient, at the expense of the successes of the past decade.
The Hungarian government in 2020
The fundamentals for the Orbán government are still solid going into 2021. Although Fidesz has dropped a few points in the polls during the second wave of the Covid-19 crisis (starting from a very high level), it remains by far the strongest party. However, given that in all likelihood Fidesz will have to face a close race against a united opposition in 2022, further electoral law amendments are likely before the next elections, similar to the ones adopted in 2020, which drastically limit the public funding for the opposition by forcing it to field a joint list if it wants to nominate only one opposition candidate in each winnable single-member district. A failure to achieve the latter would virtually guarantee a Fidesz victory in 2022. Fidesz has never played softball with its two-thirds majority, but over the years it has shed the few remaining layers of inhibitions it had harboured with respect to changing rules willy-nilly. The governing majority can be expected to do whatever it deems necessary to make sure that the opposition will be in an extremely difficult and unfair position to compete in 2022.
Governance is always a predominantly party political issue under Fidesz, but classic policy decision-making will take even more of a backseat in 2021. With the 2022 campaign looming large, the government will devote all its attention to safeguarding its power and subordinate policy decisions even more than usual to boosting its position in that campaign. This will likely include plans for increased spending in the budget for 2022, in ways that will seek to directly sway the electorate.
At least for the first few months – and potentially longer – the Covid pandemic will continue to remain relevant in 2021. The most likely scenario involves actions that are sufficient to suggest that
the government cares without costing a lot of money or political capital among those who think the corona issue is overblown and who care more about keeping the economic consequences in check.
Although in a more sophisticated manner than Trump or Bolsonaro, Orbán has essentially embraced the “economy first” mantra that has characterised many of the countries where the pandemic has hit especially hard, and by December 2020 the statistics reflected this, as Hungary ranked among the countries with the highest Covid-19 fatality rate.
Fidesz will likely continue its efforts at consolidating its power by expanding its control over the court system, primarily by way of trying to influence personnel decisions. The latter has the benefit of running into less resistance at the EU level than ostensibly self-serving rule changes. The latter, however, will be used with respect to the election and campaign rules, which Fidesz is already enacting unilaterally and clearly with the intention of tilting an extremely distorted playing field even further in its own favour.
To a significant extent, Fidesz’s strategy and actions in 2021 will be shaped by the depth and shape of the opposition cooperation, so in anticipating the government’s policies, we must take this into account. Large segments of the opposition appear to realise – with much delay – that the comprehensiveness of Fidesz regime-building is now a systemic threat that jeopardises their own chances of competing successfully in future elections. Much more so than 2018, it is dawning on the opposition side that 2022 may be the election that decides Hungary’s long term trajectory. And since that recognition may be shared by Fidesz – which frames every election as the choice between the annihilation of Hungary and its only
1.4 Outlook on the Hungarian government’s
prospects in 2021
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genuine representative, namely the governing party – 2021 will play a crucial role in setting the ground for 2022 campaign. The essential point is that to have a prayer in 2022, the opposition needs an iron-clad agreement that governs its cooperation and a discipline that will make defections that could undermine cooperation in 2022 less likely.
Regardless of their individual party preferences, a vast majority of opposition voters share this expectation. The minority who would prefer to vote for their opposition party to run separately and who would harbour reservations about a joint list featuring many political figures that they view as unpalatable will be the most crucial bloc of swing voters, and thus the main targets of a Fidesz campaign.
The latest change of the electoral law regarding party lists already indicates that Fidesz shares this view and it seems highly likely that Fidesz’s campaign will focus intensely on persuading these voters that they cannot in good conscience vote for Gyurcsány if they are conservative, for example, or, for Jobbik if they are liberal and anti–
racist. Furthermore, Fidesz’s campaign might well take the form of sowing internal divisions in opposition parties.
The next may not be the year when the most crucial decision, namely the election, will take place, but it is the year when the groundwork that could potentially have the most decisive impact on that election will be laid. Fidesz, for its part, can continue to use its extraordinary legal, financial and media power to change the playing field well into 2022. As we know it from the last 10 years, the governing party never rests, so it can be expected next year to turn up the heat on its perennially humming campaigning machine and to switch into hot election campaign mode by the second half of 2021.
The Hungarian government in 2020