Assessments of global water security

When it comes to the assessment of water security, the starting point is the water endowment of a country (basin, region, etc.). This comprises the absolute level of its freshwater availability, the fragility and strength of its freshwater ecosystems and the variability of its hydrology²⁵⁵.

250 NEWTON (2014) op. cit. p. 180.

251 WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM (2011): Water Security: The Water-Food-Energy-Climate Nexus, Washington D.C., Island Press, p. 1.

252 NEWTON (2014) op. cit. p. 182.

253 SADOFF et al. (2015) op. cit. p. 16.

254 UN-WATER (2013): Water Security and the Global Water Agenda: A UN-Water Analytical Brief, Hamilton, Ontario, UNU, p. 1.

255 UN-WATER (2013) op. cit. p. 39-40.

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Large natural hydrological variations (droughts, floods, inter-annual and intra-annual rainfall) – that characterise e.g. monsoonal river basins – require major investments in physical infrastructure and complex governance regimes and mechanisms. On the other hand, a more

“simple” hydrology – i.e. lower rainfall/river flow variability typical of temperate river basins – usually requires proportionately less efforts to secure the management of water domestically and internationally²⁵⁶. Besides natural hydrological conditions the actual availability of water is influenced by human interventions in equal measure. These interventions include not only water use and pollution in a given basin, but the export and import of water as a commodity or in contained other commodities (virtual water)²⁵⁷. In fact, the empirics of water management worldwide show that far too often water insecurity is caused not by the lack of water, but the political or economic capacity of a country to sustainably use its available resources²⁵⁸.

Despite the vagueness of the concept and ensuing methodological challenges water security assessments are regularly carried out by international organisations, policy institutions, governments etc. at various scales. A comprehensive global picture is provided by the World Water Development Reports, the annual publications of the UN World Water Assessment Programme administered by UNESCO. Such reports paint a picture of growing water insecurity worldwide. The 2012 report describes in great detail the growing uncertainties with regards to the natural hydrological cycle and the concomitant management difficulties²⁵⁹. These findings are reinstated in subsequent thematic reports in the context of water and energy (2014)²⁶⁰, water and sustainable development (2015)²⁶¹, water and employment (2016)²⁶² etc.

An assessment published by the researchers of the International Institute of Advanced Systems Analysis in 2015 provides a numerical water security scoreboard for each country. Based on their institutional coping capacities (economic power) and hydrological complexities countries have been clustered into four large water security chapters (Figure 5 below).

256 See section I.1.4. above.

257 SZILÁGYI (2018) op. cit. p. 72-73.

258 FISCHER, Günther et al. (2015): Towards indicators for water security – A global hydro-economic classification of water challenges, IIASA Interim Report, Laxenburg, International Institute of Applied Systems Analyis, p. 2.

259 WWAP (United Nations World Water Assessment Programme) (2012): The United Nations World Water Development Report 4: Managing Water under Uncertainty and Risk, Paris, UNESCO, Volume 1, p. 77-215.

260 WWAP (United Nations World Water Assessment Programme) (2014): The United Nations World Water Development Report 2014: Water and Energy, Paris, UNESCO.

261 WWAP (2015) op. cit.

262 WWAP (United Nations World Water Assessment Programme) (2016): The United Nations World Water Development Report 2016: Water and Jobs, Paris, UNESCO.

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Figure 5: water security classification of countries (by region)

Legend: NAM: North America, EUR: Europe, CAM: Central America, LAM: Latin America, OCE:

Oceania, AFR: Africa, NAF-MEA: North Africa – Middle East, ASIA: Asia.

Source: FISCHER et al. (2015) op. cit. p. 14.

Countries that are characterised both with complex hydrology and low institutional coping capacity display the highest degree of water insecurity. These include several states in northern Africa (Egypt, Algeria), the Middle East (Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Jordan), Sub-Saharan Africa (Niger, Somalia, Sudan) and Asia (India, Pakistan). These countries account for 27% of the world’s population (HE4). The largest group of countries, hosting over half of the global population, is made up by states with relatively low capacity to address water challenges. At the same time, however, the hydrological challenges they face appear less complicated too. This group of states comprises large and populous countries from all over the world including China, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, Turkey, Thailand or Vietnam (HE1). A small number of countries are characterised with high water complexities but also with considerable economic and institutional coping capacities to address even massive water security challenges.

These include South Korea, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates, accounting for less 2% of the world’s population (HE3). Finally, most countries of the global west, such the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Canada display relatively low exposure

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to water-related risks in view of their modest hydrological complexities and high coping capacities (HE2)²⁶³.

Other dedicated assessments on water security arrive at similar conclusions. The GWP/OECD Task Force on Water Security and Sustainable Growth – measuring water insecurity with reference to droughts and scarcity, floods, inadequate water supply and sanitation, ecosystem degradation and pollution – concluded in 2015 that aggregate water security risks (including access to water and sanitation) were highest in China, India and Pakistan. In terms of economic impact the African continent is likely to be hit hardest, with Central and Eastern Africa displaying the highest degree of water insecurity²⁶⁴. The risks of real water scarcity are the most severe in south Asia and northern China. India and Pakistan are particularly exposed in view of their ever-growing demand for irrigation water. Hydroclimatic variability will have a particularly high impact on the stability of crop production in Africa, South America, central Asia and some parts of Europe will also be severely affected²⁶⁵.

Figure 6: Environmental water scarcity index by basin

Source: USNATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL (2012b): Global Water Security, Intelligence Community Assessment, Washington D.C., p. 69

As regards ecosystem degradation and pollution most indicators show high risks in all populated areas of the world. For aggregated pollution hazards the eastern United States, the whole of Europe, the Indian sub-continent, China and the Mekong basin are at the highest risk

263 FISCHER et al. (2015) op. cit. p. 14, 16.

264 SADOFF at al. (2015) op. cit. p. 105-107, Figures 35-36, Tables 4-5.

265 Ibid p. 77.

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category. As regards environmental flow requirements the hotspots are slightly different. All arid and semiarid regions of the world are experiencing serious violations of environmental flow requirements, including the western United States, the Iberian Peninsula, central Asia, South Africa, the Tigris-Euphrates basin, much of the Indian subcontinent, China’s main river basins or eastern Australia²⁶⁶ (Figure 6).