In the short term, these changes may be compensated by glacier and permafrost melt. In the long term, there is concern for the survival of this fundamental water store. Glaciers have lost 20-30 % of their ice since 1980; the peak temperatures of summer 2003 alone caused the loss of 10 % of the surviving mass. According to Haeberli (2009), remaining gla- cier surface may reduce by 50-75 % by 2050. Together with deep warm- ing of permafrost, this is expected to drastically alter flow patterns and increase hazards from rockfalls and glacial lake outburst floods, as has occurred in the Bernese Oberland and Saas Valley, Valais in Switzerland (see the Natural Hazards compact). The nature of such events will diverge from historical trends and cannot be modelled from existing records. Groundwater levels were also systematically decreasing throughout the 20th century: Harum et al (2007) found levels in some parts of the South- ern Alps had fallen by 25 % over 100 years. Although mainly due to in- creased abstraction, soil imperviousness and drainage to protect settle- ments (EEA, 2009), climatechange is a consideration. Research is limited and modelled groundwater data is difficult to interpret, however Swiss studies have indicated levels are expected to show slight declines (OcCC/ ProClim (ed.), 2007).
Besides climate, there are other drivers of change, such as increased population pressure, economic development and urbanization trends. These drivers of change are closely linked to each other and pose complex management problems for land and water resources. As populations grow and move to cities and as their income levels increase or decrease – their demand for water resources changes both spatially and temporally. Taken together, the net effects of these supply and demand changes in areas of increasing population, can translate into increases in the vulnerability of water resources systems, which can create major challenges for future management of water resources for human and ecosystem needs. As stated above, climatechange can contribute further to exacerbation of problems, in particular when considering medium to long-term projected impacts. There is therefore a need to assess the vulnerability of water resources systems for enhanced management strategies, also including robust adaptation measures for future sustainable water use.
• Investigating farmer costs associated with adapting to climatechange. Better information is needed to help both growers and the regulatory agencies assess the relative costs and benefits of various adaptation options;
• Working with local agribusinesses, to test the UKICIP “climate adaptation: risk, uncertainty and decision-making framework” tool. This could help farmers, the regulatory authority and stakeholders assess the local risks posed by climatechange, and work out how best to respond. The tool has been used in other vulnerable sectors to judge the significance of the climatechange risk, compared to other risks, so that the appropriate adaptation measures can be implemented. It would involve undertaking case study farm assessments, comparing the different adaptation options and their financial and environmental impacts. It would also provide information to help avoid mal-adaptations that might be unbeneficial at the catchment level (in terms of water resources management) or at individual farm level (such as investments in additional water storage);
Catalonia is one of seven Autonomous Communities adjoining the Ebro Basin to have adopted their own regional climatechange strategies. 25 In Spain as a whole, 18 similar
regional strategies have so far been introduced (Ribeiro et al. 2009); all were created under the umbrella of the Spanish PNACC (see the section on Spain’s NAS), and all place con- siderable emphasis on agricultural water management as a key priority for action. The Catalonian ClimateChange Mitigation Strategy (Plan Marco de Mitigación del Cambio Climático en Catalunya) was introduced in 2008. Its main goal is to serve as an early framework for the Community’s contribution to Spain’s commitment to the Kyoto Proto- col. Despite this primary focus on mitigation, the strategy also addresses adaptation. The introduction of the Catalonian strategy was led by two macro-level administrative bodies, namely the government of Catalonia and the Catalonian Department of the Envi- ronment. Catalonia’s government also provided funding throughout the drafting process, which took from mid-2007 until early 2008. Its creation was instead based on innumerable public meetings and hearings attended by a vast number of stakeholders, including repre- sentatives of the agricultural sector. To this end, the public were invited to attend the Cata- lan Convention on ClimateChange, a process analogous to the government’s internal planning efforts. The aim of the convention was to gather opinions / ideas from all the stakeholders in civil society. 26 At the time, this was a novel process in terms of both the
The main changes in ICES-W are included below the third level of Figure 1. On the fourth level, the model differentiates between rainfed land and irrigated land, in order to account for productivity differences, as well as for climatechange impacts.
On the next level, irrigated land is a composite of land itself, and capital devoted to irrigation, which is a sector-specific input associated with irrigated land. Finally, the model assumes that the productivity of capital devoted to irrigation as well as the productivity of rainfed land depend on the endowment of water and the precipitation level, respectively. The substitution elasticities ELIL and ELIC were defined based on guesstimates due to lack of empirical evidence supporting specific values. In order to allow for substitution among the new inputs, the elasticity of substitution Rainfed Land-Irrigated Land (ELIL) is greater than the elasticity of substitution Land-Irrigated Capital (ELIC).
(Bodin and Crona, 2009), coastal zone management (Ernoul and Wardell-Johnson, 2013), and construction management (Pryke, 2012) among others .
In this chapter, Social Network Analysis is applied to analyse inter-institutional relations between institutions operating at two governance levels in a federal structure; national and state level in India. Although formal administrative structures and legislations explicitly stated in policy documents and laws provide the framework for institutions to relate to one another, everyday reality of water resources managers, users and policy makers and their behavioural interactions can be very different. As such, Social Network Analysis between key actors (individuals or institutions) can provide valuable information regarding the effectiveness of coordination between the actors which may not be apparent when viewed individually (Stein, Ernstson and Barron, 2011). In this study, institutions having a specific mandate and operating in a specific geographical location, ranging from government institutions that are monitoring the availability and use of water resources or developing water infrastructure or involved in disaster management, non-governmental organisations (NGO), and educational and research institutions represents actors. Following the suggestion of (Stein, Ernstson and Barron, 2011), that the option of analysing at the individual level (using individual members of the each institution as nodes) for such a large cross-scale social complexity as water resources governance and climatechange adaptation is deemed both unrealistic (too many persons to visit) and unfeasible (impossible to list all individuals involved), this study adopts the institution as the unit of analysis. Hence each institution represents a ‘node’ in Social Network Analysis terminologies in this respect.
These include changing precipitation and snow melt altering water resources ( Arnell, 2004; Kundzewicz et al., 2008 ) and hydro(geo)- logical behaviour ( Holman, 2006 ), leading to floods and droughts ( Barnett et al., 2005; Jaswal et al., 2015; Rajeevan et al., 2008; Singh et al., 2016; Upgupta et al., 2015; Xu et al., 2009 ). Climatechange is also likely to impact water quality ( Whitehead et al., 2009 ) including increased sediment loads during floods ( Wulf et al., 2012 ) and increased contaminant concentration during the dry season ( Whitehead et al., 2009 ). Temperature increases are likely to increase water demand ( Holman, 2006 ), particularly in irrigation ( Wang et al., 2014 ), due to increased evapotranspiration. In short, the immediate and direct impacts of climatechange are going to be particularly experienced through the medium of water. The compelling and growing body of evidence of a changing cli- mate points to the urgent need for adaptation actions to compli- ment mitigation ( Füssel, 2007; Simonet and Fatoric´, 2015 ) due to the emissions already committed ( IPCC, 2007 ) and the inadequacy of international agreements for reducing greenhouse emissions ( Spash, 2016 ). The Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange ( IPCC, 2014b, p. 1758 ) defined adaptation as ‘the process of adjust- ment to actual or expected climate and its effects’. Within human systems, adaptation is aimed at moderating or alleviating harmful effects or to take advantage of the beneficial opportunities ( Noble et al., 2014 ) through anticipatory, autonomous and/or planned actions ( Mimura et al., 2014; Preston et al., 2013 ). However, actions solely focused on adapting water management to climatechange are rare ( Charlton and Arnell, 2011 ) or at least are often not named as such ( Moser and Boykoff, 2013 ), since strategies and investment plans are driven by many other short term con- cerns ( Klein et al., 2014 ), particularly in developing economies with competing developmental pressures. Therefore, adaptation is often integrated into developmental plans (for e.g., Sietz et al., 2011 ).
There is no alternative to an integrated approach to adaptation, given the fact that human activities exert various pressures on water resources, which often are driven by more short-term developments. Population size and density, economic and consumption patterns, land use and land cover, and technology are key factors that also impact water resources. For instance, the decline of the population in several areas of Europe may pose larger immediate challenges to water supply and wastewater disposal networks than climatechange impacts. Migration to cities and urban sprawl causes changes in the hydrological pattern of the landscape and may lead to increased risks of flash floods and a deterioration of water quality in urban areas. Similarly, changes in agricultural management practices, reallocation of arable land to different uses, e.g. biomass production, and other changes in land use have repercussions on the hydrological balance of European regions. Such pressures are the dominant factors in many cases, with climatechange impacts acting as an additional driver that often exacerbates existing problems. Therefore, adaptation should not be discussed in isolation. Both in the assessment and modelling of future conditions and in the development of strategies, all factors influencing the quantity and quality of water resources need to be considered. Enhancing and intensifying efforts to protect the water resources of Europe and reducing existing pressures on water bodies and ecosystems will improve adaptive capacity.
Literature on identifying characteristics and attributes that enable ( Wilby and Vaughan, 2011 ) or hinder ( Moser and Ekstrom, 2010; Sciulli, 2013 ) institutions to adapt to climatechange is growing ( Biesbroek et al., 2013 ). However, the circumstances under which such enabling factors are utilised, enhanced, created or shared among institutions or how adaptation barriers emerge ( Azhoni et al., 2017 ), persist and aﬀect the capacity of water institutions to adapt are poorly understood ( Eisenack et al., 2014 ). Achieving the desired adaptation goals is not contingent on adaptive capacity alone, but also upon many factors such as socio-economic and cultural factors ( Azhoni et al., 2017 ) that shape decision makers’ perceptions of risks ( Liu et al., 2016; Smith et al., 2014 ), willingness to act ( Adger et al., 2009; Gi ﬀord et al., 2011; Grothmann et al., 2013 ) or to prioritise actions. How actors perceive what options and alternatives are under their control, and perceptions of who the key stakeholders are, is particularly pertinent for deliberat- ing and implementing adaptation strategies ( Moser and Ekstrom, 2010 ). Therefore, understanding the traits of the governance system regarding who has control over the processes of policy making and resources allocation will play an important role in determining the adaptation outcome ( Berrang-Ford et al., 2014 ).
ability may exacerbate these eﬀ ects. The study further revealed that the observed change in water quality parameters is also related to natural processes, such as low and high ﬂ ooding patterns. These processes are critical in the ‘renewal’ of biogeochemical processes and ecologi- cal balance of the ﬂ oodplain. Drawing on their results, the authors emphasise that ensuring proper management of the ﬂ oodplain is essential to ensure climatechange resilience and thereby protect the economic value of this system. The work was supported by modelling studies in the Luanginga catchment, which revealed that a decrease in rainfall and higher tem- peratures cause lower water quantities, resulting in a reduction of ﬂ ood extent (35%) and duration and, thus, alteration and damage to the highly productive and valuable wetland ecosystem (Meinhardt et al., 2018). The authors conclude that this will increase risks and vulnerability for the people who depend on the ﬂ ood- ing pattern in the wetlands.
A 超級颱風 Super typhoon B 嚴重乾旱/缺水 Drought / water shortage C 特大暴雨/洪水 Heavy rain / flooding D 海平面上升/海嘯 Sea level rise / tsunami E 寒冬 Terrible cold winter F 高溫/酷熱 Heat wave / hot weather 15、城市發展受到氣候變化的影響表現在？What are the effects of climatechange on urban development? A 公共基礎設施被破壞Destruction of the infrastructure
The paper has addressed each of these phenom- ena individually, for analytical reasons, but has repeatedly referred to the tensions and contra- dictions emerging between the impacts of socio- economic, institutional and climatechange in the Berlin-Brandenburg region. We have emphasised that global change and its impact on water infra- structures is far from homogenous. Rather, it should be perceived as being a multi-faceted, contradictory and often conflictual set of proc- esses. Whilst climatechange threatens the re- gion’s water availability, requiring measures to secure water resources in the medium to long term, the over-capacity of many of the region’s water and wastewater systems resulting from socio-economic restructuring is proving a seri- ous disincentive to conserve water in the short term. Whilst over-capacities in water infrastruc- tures call for substantial investments for retro- fitting and/or greater collaboration with urban and regional planners, the commercialisation of water and wastewater utilities is making this in- creasingly difficult. Whilst the impacts of cli- mate change and socio-economic change are demonstrating the importance of water infra- structure systems in protecting environmental resources and maintaining essential services at affordable prices, instances of privatisation in the region indicate how a strong profit motive and strict efficiency drives can jeopardise the pur- suit of tasks in the public interest that exceed the statutory requirements of water utilities. These problems are compounded by intra-regional dis- parities which characterise the Berlin-Branden- burg region and relate, interestingly, to all three dimensions of global change. Thus climatechange is likely to affect the water balance neg- atively in some areas of the region but not in others. Socio-economic change has led to dein- dustrialisation and falling population levels (and declining water use) in many rural-peripheral areas and former industrial towns, but to growth (and rising water demand) in the area surround- ing Berlin. Piecemeal privatisation has accentu- ated the patchwork nature of the organisation of
For the development of adaptation strategies we need to know how future climatechange will affect hydrodynamic conditions in German estuaries. Climatechange will have an impact on several parameters influencing the hydrodynamic conditions. Two important parameters are the freshwater discharge into the estuary and the mean sea level in the North Sea. Both parameters have a direct effect on the brackish water zone (region where sea water and fresh water mix). The aim of this study is to investigate how the position of the brackish water zone depends on the amount of freshwater discharge and sea level rise. We focus on the three main German estuaries Elbe, Weser and Ems. Using a 3D hydrodynamic numerical model we calculate water level, current and salt transport in several model simulations with different input parameters. In particular, we force the model with a low constant freshwater input at the weir and with a sea level rise of 80 cm in the North Sea. The analyses show that the brackish water zone is shifted by several kilometres in upstream direction if the freshwater discharge is low for a long period of time. The increase in sea level also results in a shift of the brackish water zone in upstream direction.
Global sustainability is intertwined with freshwater security. Emerging changes in global freshwater availability have been recently detected as a combined result of human interventions, natural variability and climatechange. Expected future socioeconomic and climatic changes will further impact freshwater resources. The quantification of the impacts is challenging due to the complexity of interdependencies between physical and socioeconomic systems. This study demonstrates a vulnerability based assessment of global freshwater availability through a conceptual framework, considering transient hydro-climatic impacts of crossing specific warming levels (1.5 o C, 2 o C and 4 o C) and related socioeconomic developments under high-end climatechange (RCP8.5). We use high resolution climate scenarios and a global land surface model to develop indicators of exposure for 25,000 watersheds. We also exploit spatially explicit datasets to describe a range of adaptation options through sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The combined dynamics of climate and socioeconomic changes suggest that although there is important potential for adaptation to reduce freshwater vulnerability, climatechange risks cannot be totally and uniformly eliminated. In many regions, socioeconomic developments will have greater impact on water availability compared to climate induced changes. The number of people under increased freshwater vulnerability varies substantially depending the level of global warming and the degree of socioeconomic developments, from almost 1 billion people at 4 o C and SSP5 to almost 3 billion people at 4 o C and SSP3. Generally, it is concluded that larger adaptation efforts are required to address the risks associated with higher levels of warming of 4 o C compared to the lower levels of 1.5 o C or 2 o C. The watershed scale and country level aggregated results of this study can provide a valuable resource for decision makers to plan for climatechange adaptation and mitigation actions.
contrary to the belief that adaptation is driven solely by economic-socio-political factors (Blennow and Persson, 2009).
Others attribute climatechange adaptation to the impacts of climatechange, including experienced or perceived events such as changing weather patterns, legislation including sustainable development standards and EU common policies, flooding, conservation, risk management, cost savings and societal pressures related to change development and population (Tompkins et al., 2010). Real or perceived climatechange has been cited as the primary driver of climatechange adaptation as seen in the case of the Construction Industry Research and Information Association which have a project which aims to provide practical guidance for large construction projects dealing with climatechange risks. This project is aimed at providing contractors with the necessary tools to diagnose and manage technical risks associated with future climatechange (Tompkins et al., 2010). Legislation has been cited as another key driver of adaptation, although interestingly the legislation driving climatechange adaptation is not necessary climatechange legalisation. That is because government policies at the European level and national level are inadvertently encouraging action which produces adaptation as a by-product (Tompkins et al., 2010). Examples of these indirect drivers of climatechange adaptation can be seen from Water industry in England and Wales, which under section 93A of the Water industry Act are encouraged to promote greater water efficiency among their customers (Tompkins et al., 2010). Floods are one of the more tangible drivers of climatechange, as direct or indirect exposure to flooding can drive action. For example, in SEPA has begun to invest quite heavily in SUDS to improve road drainage, however by improving drainage and the coping capacity of sewers they have helped vulnerable areas which may become exposed to autumn floods to be less exposed (Tompkins et al., 2010).
In model 3 climatechange is considered through the variable climatic.risk, which assigns each country a class depending upon the climatic risk it is exposed to. Also in this case climatechange results to be very significant in explaining water security, as confirmed by the expected negative sign, which is statistically significant. Among control variables, income loses importance in this model, while hydropower generation and the share of land devoted to agriculture acquire significance, both with a negative sign. In particular, the negative sign of hydropower generation seems to confirm the mutual relationship existing between water management and climatechange mitigation strategies, so as the trade-off between adaptation and mitigation options. Indeed, increases in hydroelectric generation may foster competition in water use, constrain access to water and reduce water quality. A similar discourse could be done for the agricultural land, which entails an increase in water use for irrigation purposes, thus reducing access to drinking water for residential needs and, through the use of pesticides and fertilizers, provoking water pollution. The goodness-of-fit of this model is higher than in Models 1 and 2, as the pseudo R 2 is equal to 0.6612.
Tropical semi-arid river basins experience extensive landuse activities, which eventually alter their hydrology; limited arable land in these regions has seen vast forested water towers rapidly converted to agricultural land (Rudel, 2013). The coupling effect of climatechange and sustained human activities poses uncertainty in the future of our hydrological systems, thus necessitating the development of mitigation measures for sustainability. Morphology is a key factor that also controls hydrological regimes; according to Wang et al. (2018) and Price (2011), soil texture, geology, and topography largely influence the timing of streamflow generation, baseflow processes, evapotranspiration, and subsurface storage. Price (2011) also indicates that influences of land use on hydrological regimes can be mitigated or amplified by watershed’s physical conditions. Based on the analyses of these studies, it can, therefore, be concluded that the exploration of hydrological responses of different landuse classes under various morphological conditions could, therefore, inform the planning of landuse activities for the mitigation of hydrological variability.
As Table 2 shows, the 95% dT limits do capture the range of tem-
perature changes projected by the GCMs; however, the same can- not be said about the dP limits which have completely omitted the reductions in rainfall projected by the models. Consequently, the climatechange sensitivity analyses cannot be restricted to the lim- its shown in Table 2 but must involve the complete range as pro- jected by the GCMs, especially in relation to projected reductions in rainfall because of its effect on reservoir inflows and hence on its performance. Following these considerations, delta perturba- tions in temperature (dT) of 0–5 °C (step of 1 °C) and annual rain- fall perturbations (dP) of 10% to +20% (step of 5%) were finally used in the study. Although delta perturbations (or scenario- neutral) approach has often been criticised for its inability to accommodate future changes in the seasonality and probability distribution of climatic attributes and hence the runoff, it is nonetheless an efficient method in identifying tipping points at which a water resources infrastructure, e.g. a reservoir, is likely to fail catastrophically in meeting water demand.
Many water companies distinguish between industrial/commercial customers on the basis of SIC Codes (Standard Industrial Classification) (SIC, 1992) in their billing database(s). This categorisation also feeds through to the analysis of water consumption and forecasting of future demands. A summary of the SIC codes commonly used in the water industry is given in Table 4-4. The Table also shows the sectors used by the Environment Agency in its disaggregated approach linked to SIC codes as used for the Regional and National Water Resource Strategies (Environment Agency, 2001). The Agency has broken non-household use of public water supplies down into 19 sectors related to the two letter SIC (92) class. The Agency forecasts provide the reference cases from which climatechange impacts have been assessed in this project. Accordingly the non-household model developed here is based on the 19 sectors identified by the Agency; of these 15 are classified as “industrial”, 3 as “service”, with 1 “other” category. The “other” category has been further subdivided for the purpose of this study so as to identify “indoor agricultural customers” who rely on the public supply of water for their greenhouses, but this classification does not include “animal watering” even though this was one of the micro-components identified in the Environment Agency reference scenarios. Note that the “indoor agriculture” category, included in this section, is considered to be different from the outdoor Agriculture and Horticulture sector in Chapter 5.
The Mediterranean is likely to experience increased pressure on the water resources due to decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures. However, assessment of hydrological quantities in Mediterranean basins is often ham- pered by the lack of observational data. To overcome the issue of data scarcity the hydrological relevant variables total runoff, surface evaporation, precipitation and air temperature are taken from climate model simulations directly in this study. The ensemble applied in this study consists of 22 simulations, derived from different combinations of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) forcing different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) at ∼12 km horizontal resolution provided through the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Four river basins in the Mediterranean (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava) are selected as study areas and the climatechange signals for the future period 2035–2065 compared to the reference period 1981– 2010 are investigated.