Nach oben pdf The costs and benefits of leaving the EU

The costs and benefits of leaving the EU

The costs and benefits of leaving the EU

should be seen as a lower bound for losses, since there are many other sources of gains from trade not considered in our counterfactual analysis. 3 Non-structural estimates In the previous section we attempted to quantify the welfare effects of the UK leaving the EU using a quantitative model of international trade. An alternative approach is to use existing empirical estimates of the effects of EU membership to infer the impact of leaving the EU on UK income. In particular, we can decompose the question into two parts. First, what effect will leaving the EU have on the UK’s trade with the rest of the world? Second, what is the effect of changes in trade levels on income? There exist substantial literatures addressing both the effect of joining an economic integration agreement (EIA), such as the EU, on trade and the effect of trade on income. Suppose that if the UK leaves the EU it will become a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). Does EU membership cause a country to trade more with other EU members than EFTA membership? Baier, Bergstrand, Egger, and McLaughlin (2008) address exactly this question using a gravity model of bilateral trade augmented with dummy variables for which EIAs the exporter and importer belong to. In particular, they include dummy variables for both countries being in the EU, both countries being in EFTA, one country being in the EU and the other in EFTA and for both countries belonging to any other EIA. Importantly, they control for endogeneity of selection into the formation of EIAs using country-pair fixed effects with panel data. They find robust evidence that being a member of the EU leads a country to trade significantly more with other members of the EU than if it were only a member of EFTA. Quantitatively, their estimates imply that leaving the EU and joining EFTA will reduce the UK’s trade with EU members by 25%. 4
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Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy

Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy

frameworks. Alternatively, we estimate eq. (1) without country dummies. 8 Since many of the countries in our sample were affected by the global financial crisis, robust standard errors are clustered at the quarterly level in order to account for potential correlation in the error terms. To extract early warning signals from the logistic model we make use of the signalling approach that was developed by Kaminsky et al. (1998) and extended by Alessi and Detken (2011), Lo Duca and Peltonen (2013) and Sarlin (2013). The idea is to define a probability threshold above which a model issues a warning signal, where the optimal threshold depends on policy makers’ relative aversion against Type I errors (not issuing a signal when a crisis is imminent) and Type II errors (issuing a signal when no crisis is imminent). Specifically, the logistic model issues a warning signal whenever the predicted probability of being in a vulnerable state exceeds a threshold τ , defined as a percentile of the country-specific distribution of predicted probabilities. In this way, predicted probabilities P (y \ it = 1) are transformed into binary predictions ˆ Q it that equal one if the threshold τ is exceeded for the respective observation and zero otherwise. The predictive ability of the model can then be evaluated by comparing the signals issued by the model to the actual outcome C it (equal to one if the country experiences a crisis seven to twelve quarters ahead of the respective period and zero otherwise.). Each observation is allocated to one of the quadrants in the contingency matrix depicted in Figure 1: A period with a signal by a specific indicator can either be followed by a systemic crisis seven to twelve quarters ahead (TP) or not (FP). Similarly, a period without a signal can be followed by a crisis seven to twelve quarters ahead (FN) or not (TN). The number of observations classified into each category depends on the threshold τ .
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Benefits and costs of automation support

Benefits and costs of automation support

Earlier research contrasting human performance with and without automation support only have focused on what has been referred to as “out-of the-loop unfamiliarity” effects without varying the levels or stages of automation (e.g.,Crossman, 1974; Eprath & Young, 1981; Kessel & Wickens, 1982; Wickens & Kessel, 1979; 1980, 1981). These studies provide evidence for automation-induced performance consequences but do not allow for any conclusion about the relationship to different degrees of automation. The latter issue attracted little research until the early 1990s (see for early examples, e.g., Crocoll & Coury, 1990; Layton, Smith & McGoy, 1994). Yet, since then at least a limited number of studies have become available that have collected empirical data on effects of two or more different DOAs on workload and/or SA (e.g., Endsley & Kiris, 1995; Kaber, Onal & Endsley, 2000; Lorenz, Di Nocera, Röttger & Parasuraman, 2002a; Sarter & Schroeder, 2001). The pattern of results of these single studies provides a somewhat mixed picture. Whereas some studies support the existence of the above trade-off as defined by better routine performance but worse performance when automation fails (e.g.,Sarter & Schroeder, 2001) others do not find this effect (Lorenz et al., 2002a) and still others suggest that medium levels of automation provide the best choice in terms of maintaining SA and return-to-manual performance (Endsley & Kiris, 1995) or provide an even more complex pattern of effects (Endsley & Kaber, 1999). However, due to differences in DOA levels considered, and a generally limited statistical power, the effects of single studies are inconclusive. A more valid overall picture might be revealed by quantitatively combining data from a variety of studies across varying domains (e.g., process control, aviation), an approach analogous to a classic meta-analysis (Rosenthal 1991; Fadden, Ververs, & Wickens, 1998; Horrey & Wickens, 2006; Wickens, Hutchinson, Carolan & Cumming, 2013). The purpose of the current investigation is to provide such meta-analysis by (a) aggregating data from studies that compared different degrees of automation, (b) examining the extent to which they show the postulated trade-off between normal operations and failure conditions as the degree of automation (DOA) was manipulated and (c) if possible, by identifying factors that may mitigate or moderate this trade-off.
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Benefits and costs of liquidity regulation

Benefits and costs of liquidity regulation

NFC loans (initial maturity above 5 years) indeed have lower NSFR buffers. This is especially true for the banks in the highest decile of the distribution of long-term loans, as the median bank in this group has a shortfall of almost 15 percentage points. Figure B1: Median NSFR buffer by long-term loan decile.Notes: The bars in this figure show the median NSFR buffer within each long-term loans decile. Long-term loans are defined as loans to non-financial companies with an initial maturity above 5 years. They are scaled by total assets before calculating the deciles. The buffer is calculated as the difference between the NSFR proxy and 100. Red bars indicate a shortfall, i.e. a buffer below 100, blue bars indicate a positive buffer. The NSFR proxy is calculated using IBSI data for 200 MFIs in December 2015.
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Costs and benefits of international barter

Costs and benefits of international barter

Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public.

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Benchmarking Unemployment Benefits in the EU

Benchmarking Unemployment Benefits in the EU

• Within the EU, there are groups of countries with relatively homogenous benefit systems. Nordic and Continental countries are characterised by relatively generous unemployment benefit systems both in terms of entitlement conditions and income support per unemployed. In both groups, activation and active labour market policies have a prominent role, with job search conditionality being strong especially in Nordic countries. In Anglo-Saxon countries, unemployment insurance benefits are relatively modest, while unemployment assistance plays a major role. Monitoring of job-search activity is strict whilst active labour market policies play a less important role. In Southern countries, access to unemployment insurance is strict and benefit generosity varies widely depending on age and contribution period. Activation policies play a relatively minor role, while participation in active labour market policies is widespread. Finally, Central and Eastern countries tend to exhibit a tight unemployment benefit system both in terms of benefit support per unemployed and benefit coverage. Although replacement rates at the beginning of the unemployment spell can be high in some cases, benefits drop sharply over the unemployment spell. Strict conditions on job search and availability often apply.
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Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy

Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy

The simulation results from the model suggest that the net benefits (and in particular short- term macro costs) of capital-based measures depend on how banks move to higher capital ratios. Under the assumption that banks react to higher capital requirements by asset-side deleveraging, the net benefits of activating capital-based measures are, at the end of the sample period (2014Q4), estimated to be negative for the majority of European countries. This reflects the fact that the financial cycle was still in a depressed phase in many countries, so that the potential benefits of activating capital-based macroprudential tools would be rather limited. On the other hand, asset-side deleveraging corresponds to a reduction in banks’ loan supply, for which the model in this case suggests a negative GDP response, therefore implying a non-zero gross cost. In contrast, under the assumption that the banking system reacts to higher capital requirements by raising and investing equity capital, the GDP responds positively, so that there is no cost from that perspective. Higher capitalization levels further contribute to increased resilience and a fall in banking crisis probabilities, and consequently the net benefits would be positive in all European countries. A counteracting force arises from somewhat stronger credit and asset price growth, implying a move toward overheating and thus upward pressure on crisis probabilities. This effect, however, is by far outweighed by stronger capitalization and the initially positive short-term GDP response.
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Leaving "Hotel California": How Incentives Affect Flows of Benefits in the Netherlands

Leaving "Hotel California": How Incentives Affect Flows of Benefits in the Netherlands

Van den Berg and Van der Klaauw (2006) investigate the effect of counseling and moni- toring on the individual transition rate to employment of type I UI recipients. They use da- ta from a field experiment. All UI recipients had to send in weekly reports concerning job search activities. Once every four weeks, the UI agency determined whether the individual was still eligible for UI benefits. The experiment consisted of randomly assigning coun- seling and monitoring to part of the workers. So some workers got “treated” with coun- seling and monitoring while others did not receive counseling and monitoring. The coun- seling and monitoring started with an intake meeting within three days after the start of the payment of the UI benefits. During this meeting the quality of application letters and the resume were examined, potential search channels were discussed and a plan was made about what the individual should do until the next meeting. An important element of coun- seling and monitoring was also to stimulate the unemployed worker to frequently contact the public employment offices for information about available job vacancies. During the intake meeting it was stressed that a positive and active attitude toward job search is ex- pected. Follow-up meetings focused on applications to specific job vacancies and employ- ers. During these meetings the plan of the previous meeting was evaluated and a planning for the next period was made. If the unemployed worker did not comply with the plan, he could have been punished with a sanction in the form of a reduction of the UI benefits. The average sanction for insufficient job search was a 10% reduction of the UI benefits for a period of 2 months. Note that the counseling and monitoring requirements came on top of the reports on search activities that all workers had to sent in every week. The scale of the field experiment was modest. The database contains administrative information on about 394 individuals who participated in the experiment. The entered the UI system in the last months of 1998 and the first months of 1999. The results of the analysis show that low-intensity job search assistance programs have at best small effects. High-intensity job search assistance programs may have a more positive effect on the exit rate to work. Fur- thermore, monitoring of relatively well-qualified individuals in favorable macroeconomic conditions leads to inefficient substitution of search methods or channels. This also gener- ates small net effects on the exit rate to work. Individuals with worse prospects may have less scope for substitution, and monitoring of their search activity may lead to an increase in the exit rate to work. Van den Berg and Van der Klaauw (2006) argue that it may make more sense to focus monitoring on individuals with worse opportunities.
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Institutional harmonization and its costs and benefits in the context of EU cooperation with its neighbours: An overview

Institutional harmonization and its costs and benefits in the context of EU cooperation with its neighbours: An overview

5.6. Improved domestic institutions and the system of economic governance It is not only trade-related areas that will see the gains from harmonization with EU norms, but the entire system of economic governance in ENP countries. As the above discussion of the effects of harmonization shows, on top of better access to external markets, there are going be substantial domestic changes. Often, the requirements for getting better market access can serve as catalysts of the internal reform. For example, improvement in product standards and their effective implementation would require modernization of production processes in the private sector and enhancement of the quality of public regulatory bodies. Indeed, it is only in synergy of formal harmonization and internal reform that economic integration can proceed. This link between European integration and institutional reform will stimulate modernization of ENP countries’ economies and help them achieve developmental objectives. The resulting growth and welfare gains can be substantial what has been analyzed by Radziwill and Smietanka (2009) and Maliszewska, Orlova and Taran (2009) under the same research task.
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The economics of enhancing accessibility estimating the benefits and costs of participation

The economics of enhancing accessibility estimating the benefits and costs of participation

disability as ‘arising from the interaction of a person’s functional status with the physical, cultural, and policy environments.’ Many countries now use the ‘Washington Group Short Set’ questions to produce internationally comparable data about disability and its variation within a population. These questions include for example ‘Do you have difficulty seeing, even if wearing glasses?’ and ‘Do you have difficulty walking or climbing steps?’ (Madans, Loeb & Altman, 2011; Washington Group on Disability Statistics, 2009). Frye (2012) states that Census data such as the Washington Group Short Set responses are often too broad to be useful as a driver of policy change, and in any case there is too much lag between data collection and its publication for it to be a political lever. In some countries (including New Zealand), these data about disability are not disaggregated to anything less than national or regional level. Importantly, for this paper, lacking low-level spatial data about people and their diverse abilities means that local authorities who make transport investment decisions have no data at all about differences within their population; they cannot invest in accessibility improvements that would benefit particular groups with any confidence that the investment in that particular location is justified according to relative need.
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The costs and benefits of different initial teacher training routes

The costs and benefits of different initial teacher training routes

The costs and benefits of different initial teacher training routes this offset in costs is postponed until Chapter 5, where the total net costs for schools and central government are presented. 28 To estimate the central cost of providing student finance for ITT, we model the timing and total repayment of tuition fee and maintenance loans, under the assumption that each trainee borrows the maximum possible amount. We present two scenarios: in the first, the trainee is eligible for the full maintenance grant (and therefore a lower maintenance loan); in the second, the trainee is not eligible for any maintenance grant and therefore borrows the maximum possible maintenance loan. We model the new system of student finance, although our academic year of interest (2013–14) was a period of transition between the old and new systems of university finance, where the direct source of funding for universities shifted from central government to tuition fees from students. 29 We assume that the trainee’s future salary (and therefore repayment of the loan to cover ITT) follows the average wage profile of all teachers and senior leaders currently in the profession (observed in the School Workforce Census). A number of simplifying assumptions are necessary: first, that recent trainees will have a similar pattern of wage growth to existing teachers and senior leaders 30 (but this may change given recent reforms to teacher pay progression 31 ); second, we ignore the variation between subjects and between ITT routes (which is not observed in the School Workforce Census), and indeed between individual trainees; and third, we assume that the trainee remains in teaching throughout their career. The second assumption implies that the central cost we report is for the average qualifying teacher, which is a meaningful example. The third
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Regional disintegration in the Soviet Union: Economic costs and benefits

Regional disintegration in the Soviet Union: Economic costs and benefits

Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public.

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Economic Benefits of Gender Equality in the EU

Economic Benefits of Gender Equality in the EU

gineering and mathematics would have a largely positive effect on the EU economy. Overall, the study results show that higher gender equal- ity would lead to a large increase in the number of jobs, to the benefi t of both women and men. There would be up to 10.5 million additional jobs in 2050 due to improvements in gender equality, with about 70% of these jobs taken by women. The study further shows that improving gender equality has strong, positive impacts on GDP per capita that grow over time. The results show a positive impact of gender equality measures on economic growth due to more women in STEM education, higher labour market participation by women and a lower gender pay gap. The study also shows that reducing the gender gap in STEM education could help reduce bottlenecks in the la- bour market, increase the employment and productivity levels of women, and reduce occupational segregation. Ultimately, this would foster economic growth via both higher productivity and increased labour market activity. The results of the study also indicate that closing the la- bour market activity rate gap would signifi cantly increase the level of employment and have the largest impact on GDP per capita. An increase in women’s salaries as a re- sult of narrowing the pay gap would contribute to reduc- ing the activity rate gap, possibly accounting for part of the positive employment effects associated with improv- ing the labour market activity of women. In sum, fostering the greater participation of women in the labour market and ensuring pay equality is crucial to achieve an overall employment rate of women and men of at least 75% and to boost inclusive growth.
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Costs and benefits of immigration and multicultural interaction

Costs and benefits of immigration and multicultural interaction

Abstract This paper studies how the existence of a minority culture influences the well-being of the native population and its attitude towards immigrants. In this context, I as- sume that multicultural interaction can be advantageous for immigrants and natives if intercultural obstacles and communication problems are abolished. It is found that certain shares of the immigrant as well as of the native population have incentives to acquire knowledge of the respective other culture since it enables them to interact with each other. I find that immigrants are more likely to acquire knowledge of the domestic culture than vice versa what I attribute to differences in the respective population size, assortative matching behavior and potentially asymmetric learning costs. The model further predicts that natives who have sufficiently low costs of learning the foreign cul- ture are willing to vote for free migration whereas those who have higher learning costs will be in favor of immigration restrictions.
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Costs and Benefits of Kosovo's Future Status

Costs and Benefits of Kosovo's Future Status

There are, realistically speaking, three proposals that are being developed for the future status of Kosovo. The fourth option, which is sometimes in the minds of those who argue for Kosovo remaining part of Serbia, which would resemble the system that existed prior to the dissolution of Yugoslavia, is not seriously proposed by anybody. A system similar to that which existed in the 1990s may be what the representatives of the Kosovo Serbs (some of them to be sure) have in mind, but that is also not proposed as a realistic alternative by anybody. Most of those who are involved in the debates about the future Kosovo status, on both sides, seem to have learned at least some of the lessons of history. The Serbian proposal, as far as fiscal obligations are concerned, is that of clean fiscal separation, except in the areas where Serbia wants to support the Kosovo Serbs. In that, the Serbian proposal, which is somewhat imprecise and is being constantly revised, seems to be developing in the direction of minimal, essentially symbolic, sovereignty of Serbia over Kosovo. 1 That would, basically, mean that Serbia would be represented in the United Nations, while Kosovo would not be (but it would not be barred from the membership in all United Nations or other international institutions; it is questionable, however, whether that is in fact feasible). Beyond that, Serbia would not have any rights or obligations in Kosovo. Or, to put it succinctly, Kosovo would be completely internally sovereign and would share only very limited external sovereignty with Serbia. Clearly, this proposal would reduce some of the existing costs that Serbia has, but would not really bring any benefits in and by itself. In concrete terms, Serbia would stop servicing Kosovo’s foreign debt, the stock of which amounts to over USD 1 billion. 2 No other costs or benefits are currently envisaged, certainly no fiscal union or fiscal sharing arrangement of any kind.
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Benefits and costs of cycling infrastructure investment.

Benefits and costs of cycling infrastructure investment.

The current positive development of cycling in Ger- many and many other countries is also due to the ex- pansion of the cycle route networks. It is absolutely necessary to further modify existing infrastructure for safety and partly also for capacity reasons. This does not only include pavement cycle paths. There is a va- riety of different solutions available now which allow municipalities to provide good conditions for mov- ing and stationary cycling traffic. Cost-benefit analy- ses help to use funds purposefully and justify the in- vestments vis-à-vis third parties or decision-makers for budget decisions.
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Costs and benefits of immigration and multicultural interaction

Costs and benefits of immigration and multicultural interaction

With regard to the empirical literature on the attitudes towards immigrants, one finds large support for the suggestion that those who are rather inefficient in learning another culture on average to the strongest degree oppose immigration. More precisely, it is mainly argued that opposition to immigration is higher if the individual is among the old, unedu- cated, nationally immobile, patriotic and does not belong to a cultural minority (Espenshade and Hempstead 1996, O’Rourke and Sinnott 2006, Hainmueller and Hiscox 2007, 2010). All the mentioned groups can certainly be assumed to face higher cultural learning costs. Besides the heterogeneity in cultural learning costs, I pointed at the gain of intercultural exchange which shapes the attitude towards immigration and multiculturalism on a country level. From our results, one can propose that countries which are in favor of a multicultural society (due to gains from intercultural interaction) will also be more open for immigration. As has been mentioned by Fujita and Weber (2004), differences according to the task relevance of multicultural exchange can explain differences between immigration policies of the U.S and Japan.
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Costs and Benefits of Overlapping Regional Organizations in Latin America: the Case of the OAS and UNASUR

Costs and Benefits of Overlapping Regional Organizations in Latin America: the Case of the OAS and UNASUR

Instead, the Venezuelan government again invited a UNASUR mission to “accompany” the elections (Misión Electoral de Acompañamiento). But this mission also had a bumpy start as the Maduro government rejected the proposed Brazilian mission leader and Brazil dropped out of the mission as a consequence. Only on November 12, 2015, was an agreement signed between UNASUR and the Venezue- lan National Electoral Council. In the meantime, Luis Almagro, the new secretary- general of the OAS, also officially offered to send an electoral observation mission, an offer that the Electoral Council rejected. In reaction, Almagro wrote an 18-page letter (OAS 2015a) to the Electoral Council on November 10, raising alarms about the fairness of the upcoming vote: “there is reason to believe that the conditions in which the people will vote on December 6 will not enjoy the level of transparency and electoral justice that you, at the National Electoral Council, should guarantee.” The letter (as well as two additional messages before the election) put some pressure on the Venezuelan government and may have reduced the risk of flagrant manipu- lations. In the end, the UNASUR mission of approximately 50 members was also welcomed by the Venezuelan opposition. The elections were transparent, and the opposition won with a clear majority.
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Costs and benefits of political and physical collaboration in the European Power Market

Costs and benefits of political and physical collaboration in the European Power Market

4.3. Regional abatement The European decarbonization pathways and related abatement cost are just depicting the uppermost level. An analysis at country-level is necessary to show who is actually bearing the burden of decarbonization. In Figure 6 we depict CO 2 emission intensity at country-level (see equation (E.4) in Appendix E). The first line presents 2015 values from EUREGEN and urbs. The middle line presents outcomes for the three narratives in 2050 for EUREGEN and the lower line the same for urbs. Note that emission intensities above 390 g/kWh are shown separately to allow for a better contrast in the 2050 maps. Starting with 2015 values, Europe is mainly divided into two groups of countries with high (black) and low (white) emission intensities. For example, Poland is the most emission-intensive country in Europe in 2015, whereas Norway, Sweden, France, and Switzerland have almost zero CO 2 emissions from power generation. The emission-intensive countries rely heavily on coal, lignite, and natural gas to meet electricity demand. The countries with clean power systems have either high hydro potential (e.g., Norway), rely heavily on nuclear power (e.g., France), or do both (e.g., Switzerland). However, the business model of nuclear power is under stress in the future according to the three narratives. Most countries consider nuclear power as not economically viable anymore, leading to a reduced usage of it until 2050. As a consequence, France experiences an increase of its emissions in all three narratives.
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Costs and Benefits of Political and Physical Collaboration in the European Power Market

Costs and Benefits of Political and Physical Collaboration in the European Power Market

The description of possible futures through the creation of scenarios is a for- malized way to make statements about possible future development paths using knowledge from the present and insights from the past. A fundamental distinction can be made between qualitative and quantitative scenarios. Qualitative scenarios, often also called narratives or storylines, are largely based on verbal descriptions of potential futures [e.g., 5]. Methods for developing such narratives are usually flexible in terms of the parameters they require, allowing to consider a range of different social, economical, technical, and environmental parameters. This way, softer and more diffuse concepts such as political stability, or environmental awareness can be included in the analysis. Computer-based quantitative scenarios, on the other hand, allow for numerical insight into the system under consideration. Alcamo [6] argues that quantitative approaches are more transparent than their qualitative counter- parts because their model assumptions are expressed as mathematical equations. Craig et al. [7] contrast this with the fact that, for energy forecasts, there are nec- essarily implicit assumptions about human behavior, including social, institutional and personal interactions, as well as human innovation.
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