Subsurface geology, data and methodology
TheNigerDelta is one ofthe World’s largest Tertiary delta systems, located on the West African continental margin at the apex ofthe Gulf of Guinea (Fig. 3-2). Thedelta succession comprises a highly progradational, generally upward-coarsening association of Tertiary clastics up to 12 km thick (Doust and Omatsola, 1989). Thedelta stratigraphy and structure are intimately related, with thedevelopmentof each being dependent on the interplay between sediment supply and subsidence (Doust, 1990). The geological analyses presented in this study are based on the interpretation of a pre-stack time migrated 3D seismic-reflection volume of a ca. 400 km² survey area in the coastal-marine transition ofthe western NigerDelta (Fig. 3-2). The study area is located in the extensional, gravity-driven structural domain ofthedelta (Doust and Omatsola, 1989; Damuth, 1994; Hooper et al., 2002), in which the progradation ofthe deltaic sedimentary wedge over basal marine shales caused the formation of numerous kilometre-scale, gravity- driven, syn-sedimentary growth faults (Fig. 3-3; also see Thorsen, 1963; Bruce, 1973; McCulloh, 1988; Lundin, 1992; Cartwright et al., 1998). The northwestern part ofthe study area is marked by three large-scale, arcuate-shaped, seaward-dipping normal faults (faults 1, 2 and 3) that extend laterally over several kilometers (Fig. 3-3) and displace sedimentary units of Pliocene to recent age by several hundreds of milliseconds TWT (Fig. 3-4 section A). In contrast, the central and southeastern parts ofthe study area exhibit a structurally complex zone of deltaic rollover (Fig. 3- 4 section B; Fig. 3-5 sections C and D) which is bound on its landward side by a series of large, subparallel, seaward-dipping, highly listric deltaic faults.
In light ofthe uncertainties decision-makers are facing, a new approach is needed that results in plans which perform satisfactorily under a wide variety of possible future pathways, are adaptive over relatively short time scales (5 to 10 years), and support long term planning under different plausible scenarios (Haasnoot et al., 2013; BanDuDeltAS, 2015; Nicholls et al., 2015), as applied for example in the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 and in the Dutch Delta Programme and Thames 2100 study (Haasnoot, 2013). Good governance and transboundary cooperation in a multi-sectoral approach, aligned with economic and technical capacity is essential to achieve delta sustainability (Bucx et al., 2015; UNEP and UNEP-DHI, 2015). Knowledge and best practice transfer among deltas are needed to support thedevelopmentand implementation of adaptive measures (Driel et al., 2015). Increased attention ofthe public, academia and policy makers to the challenges and opportunities in deltas is essential and can be facilitated by
Serving as “gateways”, some world cities tie their wider hinter- lands to global networks. The article revisits gateway–hinterland relations against the backdrop of assessments that lead to op- posed conclusions on the benefits and shortcomings of integra- tion into the world economy. Referring to theoilandgas sector in Argentina and Ghana, it answers the question of how gate- ways interact with subordinate places and also uncovers obsta- cles to peripheral development. The author finds that Accra and Buenos Aires concentrate corporate control. Argentina's capital serves as a gateway for knowledge generation and logistics too. Opportunities for peripheral development in both countries are considerable, albeit largely limited to generic services. Besides a certain concentration of business activities in the gateway cities, more important challenges to peripheral development are typi- cal for small and medium enterprises (insufficient finance and management capabilities, unawareness of business opportuni- ties, andthe like). They include rent seeking and subcontracting. The latter leaves local companies in a particularly weak position vis-à-vis lead firms. The author argues that while integration into the world economy allows for peripheral development, the corresponding outcomes may not meet everyone's expectations. Related expectations must, therefore, be more down-to-earth than overly optimistic statements frequently made by politicians.
While the previous section addresses the differential impact ofoil versus gas reserves on oil company returns, this relationship might not be constant over time. Certain aspects might affect the relationship between changes in reserves and returns. In fact, early studies found a negative effect of investment in exploration activities on security returns. McConnell and Muscarella (1985), Picchi (1985) and Jensen (1986, 1988) examined the impact on valuation of investments in exploration anddevelopment (E&D) activities during a time period characterized by declining commodity prices, excessive spending on E&D and excessive levels of reserves. The authors all found that the market reacted negatively to E&D spending. An analogy can be found in recent years. During the late 2000’s a structural change in the U.S. natural gas market occured. The US natural gas market has changed dramatically in recent years. The shale-gas boom has increased domestic natural gas production to the degree that only minimal LNG imports might be
from the geopolitical and socio-cultural structure of Nigeria, to practices that appear to be specific to theoilandgas industry.
Theoilandgas industry has always had strong lobbies and influence government policy and laws globally. Operation in the upstream petroleum sector is costly and capital intensive, and most ofthe companies involved have deep enough pockets to influence policies, laws and regulations through powerful lobbyist in the countries where they operate. Regularly, theoilandgas industries have been reported to fund political campaigns and bankroll politicians. It is instructive that in the United States of America, most wastes derived from the upstream oilandgas industry are exempt from USEPA regulation for hazardous wastes (U.S. EPA., 2002). In 1980, the US Congress gave a conditional exemption for exploratory and production wastes from theoilandgas industry from hazardous management under the Resource Control and Conservation Act (RCRA), The Clean Water Act (CWA), andthe Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). The wastes exempted include produced water, produced sand, drilling fluids and muds, tank bottoms, among several others (Puder and Veil, 2006). Nigeria was without any formal dedicated environmental regulations before 1988, when in a knee-jerk reflex to a toxic waste dump in some parts oftheNigerDelta, the Federal Environmental Protection Agency (FEPA) was created by the erstwhile military administration in the country, to enforce the Harmful and Toxic Waste Decree ofthe same year (Echefu and Akpofure, 2002). Prior to the formation of FEPA, the principal regulatory tool in the petroleum industry in Nigeria was the Petroleum Act of 1969, whose enforcement fell under the Department of Petroleum Resources ofthe Ministry of Petroleum Resources. Apparently, the major environmental policy thrust ofthe Petroleum Act 1969 was pollution abatement (Orubu et al., 2004).
The law also regulates that the flare systems are to be designed and operated in accordance with the best industrial practice and engineering standards. Its criteria consist ofthe flare efficiency, flare performance characteristic and process leakage. National data indicates that between 1994 and 1997 gas flaring was reduced from 3.4 billion m 3 to less than 2 billion m 3 with an investment of US$ 350 million, even though oil production volumes increased steadily over the same period (Bouille et al, 2000). To summarise, gas flaring reduction projects in Argentina prove to be supportive to the country’s development in all aspects, including socio-economic, environmental and technological growth. The introduction of certain projects has enhanced the promotion of alternative technology and production which opened a new gas market, domestically and internationally. The regulations also played a big role by lowering dependency on oiland coal as well as encouraging the usage of previously flared gas as alternative fuel, which resulted in a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
from participants (members ofthe host
communities) and describe their lived experiences
on the impact ofoil resource exploitation on the people ofDelta State of Nigeria. Interviews and observations were thus used to identify different types of environmental problems ofoil resource extraction, the various ways of preventing or reducing them, and their impact on the environment ofthe host communities. "Qualitative research is an inquiry process of understanding based on distinct methodological traditions of inquiry that explore a social or human problem. The research builds a complex holistic picture, analyzes words, reports detailed views of informants, and conducted the study in natural setting" Creswell (1998: 15). The structured interview questions were designed and generated by the researcher to elicit response on the impacts ofoil exploration on host communities. The formulation of questions by the researcher relied on face validity in determining the constancy and transferability ofthe questions in line with other qualitative researches (Rossman
withdrawals (Nicot & Scanlon 2012). And in comparison to the water intensity in producing most other fossil fuels, such as coal, conventional and unconventional oil, shale gasdevelopment is less water intensive (Kuwayama et al. 2014).
However, the risks associated with surface water consumption can be expected to vary both over time and space. Little water is required when gas is actually being produced, thus withdrawals in any play, no matter how significant, will be transient. Most ofthe water consumption in shale gas production occurs within one to five days during the hydraulic fracturing process and if this water was all diverted during a low-flow period (summers, droughts) there may be more significant ecosystem impacts (Entrekin et al. 2011). Furthermore, within a river basin, small streams (andthe organisms therein) may be more sensitive to changes streamflow than larger rivers. In addition, the regulation of water withdrawals and water rights structures will mitigate the impacts of withdrawals to varying degrees. Additional research on these spatially and inter- temporally variable impacts is warranted.
Poverty is linked to the environment in complex ways, particularly in African economies, which are based on natural resources (World Bank, 1990b). Degradation of these resources reduces the productivity ofthe poor – who most rely on them – and makes the poor even more susceptible to extreme events (meteorological, economic, and civil unrest as we have in theNigerDelta region). Poverty makes recovery from such events even more difficult, and contributes to lowering social and ecological resistance. Poverty is also a factor in accelerating environmental degradation as seen in theNigerDelta region, since the poor, with shorter time horizons and usually less secure access to natural resources, are unable and often unwilling to invest in natural resource management (for example, soil conservation and fertilizers). In addition, poor people are often the most exposed to environmental damage, because they cannot afford, for example, to purchase safe water or to live in a neighborhood that is less polluted (World Bank 1990b). Reducing poverty will often lead to improved environmental quality and vice versa (Mink 1993; World Bank 1992a).
year 2010. 161 This confirms the growing trend towards using natural gas for the production of electricity. These facts make a consideration of this alternative pricing mechanism relevant. In the case of a power price-link the natural gas is connected to the price of an energy product. Following this logic this pricing alternative is of interest for gas fuelled power plants. Two electricity pricings models currently co-exist in Germany. On the one hand you have the model of marginal costs using the Merit-Order at the European Power Exchange (EPEX) in Paris and Leipzig. This exchange based pricing mechanism ranks the marginal costs ofthe electricity produc- tion possibility and matches this order with the demand. The Merit-Order price is regulated by market-based competition. Producers of electricity are constantly attempting to get into the hourly traded volume of electricity e.g. by cost savings or improved efficiency in electricity generation. These savings result in an improved ranking in the Merit-Order and represent an economic incentive. The ranking focuses primarily on fossil-fuelled power plants because ofthe subsidies flowing to electricity production from re- newable energy sources. This is the other pricing model, i.e. state controlled subsidies for renewable electricity. How long these two pricing models will co-exist and whether or not other market designs such as capacity markets will overtake them is part ofthe current political energy debate in Germany. The first question to be asked here is which price of electricity would the price ofgas have to be linked to? The Merit-Order price-link would put competitive pressure on the contracting parties due to market based price setting. Based on the previous determination, the subsidy price for electrici- ty from renewable energy sources is a politically fixed artificial price and is not exposed to competitive pressure. The price differs according to the various renewable power generation technologies employed andthe price development is difficult to predict because ofthe unclear political situation e.g. after the upcoming German parliamentary elections in 2013. Therefore this option adds high political risk to long-term agreements.
Different rigs are often involved in two different stages of offshore operations: exploration anddevelopment. Exploration, as the name implies, first involves finding oilandgas reserves by drilling initial wells. Once an initial well is drilled, and it is resolved that there are worthwhile resources in that location, then the well is capped and left untouched, andthe rig that performed the exploration leaves the area. Thedevelopment stage then ensues, involving another rig— typically a semi-submersible—to develop the well further for the extraction ofoilandgas. Once that well is fully developed, the production stage begins, which does not involve a rig, in which theoilandgas are finally extracted. The production stage also involves an infrastructure that includes pipes which may extend across hundreds of miles along the ocean floor to bring oilandgas to refineries. However, in areas ofthe ocean that are too remote for this method of operations on the U.S. Continental Shelf (where U.S. offshore regulations apply).
Average total cost overrun - 7 % 16 % 40 % 63 % 102 % 138 % Average yearly cost overrun - 7 % 9 % 12 % 12 % 17 % 5 %
5. Research design
This section outlines vital issues for research design of cost performance in development projects, first of which is the issue of normalisation. To make costs comparable across projects we need a common denominator. A value figure would be welcome from an economics perspective, but we do not see any likely candidates. At any rate, to evaluate performance in developing oilandgas fields, we need to isolate development project performance and filter out the effect of petroleum prices and performance in other dimensions, like quality of subsurface interpretations. A standard metric in construction industry is cost per tonne ofthe installation constructed. This is one type of measurement ofthe productivity in construction, and it is also used in cost analysis. However, as we do recognise the need for compartementalisation and thus use a metric unique to construction, we do find this metric as being too far from the value creation of an oil company. The main objection is that cost per tonne does not capture the effort to keep the weight ofthe facilities down. This is partly a function of engineering (which is often part ofthe delivery, by use of Engineering, Procurement, Construction contracts; EPC), and partly a result ofthe quality ofthe work performance andthe steel quality applied.
2.The context of rural young people in sub-Saharan Africa
The global population of young people is more than 1 billion, and their numbers are declining in developed regions but increasing in developing regions (Bloom, 2012). Approximately 85 percent ofthe world’s youth population lives in developing countries, and this rate is expected to approach 90 percent in coming years (World Bank, 2012). The majority of young people live in rural areas in sub- Saharan, South-Central and South-East Asia, and Oceania (ILO, 2012). Most young rural people work in family farming andthe informal sector, which are typified by low levels of income and productivity, poor working conditions, absence of social protection, limited opportunities of advancement and absence of social dialogue (IFAD/ILO, 2012). Africa will continue to account for a significant and rising share ofthe global youth population, rising from a fifth in 2012 to as high as a third by 2050 (Asongu, 2013; Filmer & Fox, 2014; Asongu & Nwachukwu, 2018; Asongu et al., 2018). Current trends suggest that much ofthe youth bulge will be concentrated in West, Central and East Africa (Bertrand & Crepon, 2014). It leaves Africa with the challenge of providing jobs to 29 million labour market entrants every year, which is close to 6 percent ofthe current workforce (Herrington & Kelly, 2012). Figure 1 identifies Nigeria in the continent of Africa.
TheNigerDelta region has been well-known for its crude oil, which provides over 80% of Nigeria’s annual income and since the 1990s, it has been known for armed conflicts and hostilities. The region is generally under-developed andthe environment is being degraded as people try to secure their livelihoods. This thesis aims to identify the ecosystem benefits derived from theNigerDelta environment by local communities; appraise the methods of forest management and their effectiveness to provide a steady flow ofthe ecosystem benefits; identify stakeholders in the use and management of forest ecosystems, and suggest methods of collaborative forest resources management. The research adopted deductive and inductive social research methods to obtain primary data and was guided by three frameworks: livelihoods, ecosystems services, andthe stakeholder participation and analysis. The result showed that the rural dwellers oftheNigerDelta depend almost entirely on ecosystem benefits for their survival; they have no access to crude oil but can access forest goods and services. The urban dwellers were aware ofthe range of provisioning, regulatory, cultural, and supporting services but rural dwellers were mainly only aware of provisioning services. The forest stakeholders were identified to comprise rural dwellers, local NGOs, academic and research institutions (classified as subjects); international agencies such as the UN (classified as key players); wood-based industries and urban dwellers (classified as crowd); andthe government andoil exploration companies (classified as context setters). The existing forest management approaches included effective community traditional approaches (where they exist) and government laws and policies establishing forest reserves, which were mainly found to be ineffective. At present, the main forest management approach is top-down and initiated by government. The full cohorts of stakeholders are not working together to ensure the effective management of these resources. This thesis recommends a collaborative forest management approach, which involves identified key stakeholders.
Regulatory Commission. The National Petroleum Company will substitute both the NNPC andthe Nigerian Gas Company Limited thus becoming an integrated oilandgas company operating as any other commercial entity. The Company initial capitalisation should be enough to cover the 5-years average of cash calls for the NNPC joint ventures, with existing NNPC’s interests in the latter to be transferred to the new Company, along with those of its subsidiaries. The shares ofthe new company would be controlled but Federal Ministry of Finance and by the Bureau of Public Enterprises on behalf ofthe Government. The National Petroleum Assets Management Commission will have the same shareholders and will be responsible for managing the NNPC’s investments in gasandoil for which the Government is not obliged to provide funding, including all NNPC’s assets from production sharing contracts. The Assets Management Commission will also own and manage all of Nigeria’s petroleum assets on behalf ofthe Government and will be entitled to charge fees based on a percentage ofthe revenue generated to the latter. Furthermore, it will be tasked to enter into new exploration and petroleum agreements with petroleum companies and to sell crude oiland petroleum derivative produced from the assets managed. The last body created by the Bill is the Nigeria Petroleum Regulatory Commission, substituting both the Department of Petroleum Resources andthe Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency thus becoming the only regulatory agency for the Nigerian oilandgas industries. The Regulatory Commission, in regulating both the technical and commercial aspects ofthe industry, amongst other things will: issue licenses and leases for both upstream (after bid rounds) and downstream operations; determine the amount of royalties from upstream operations and ensure their payment; determine tariffs and price methodology for third party access to petroleum facilities. Finally, the Bill reiterates the commitment to put an end to gas flaring after a flare-out date to be set by the Minister of Petroleum, who will though maintain the right to issue gas flaring permits of no-longer than 100 days. All facilities should be equipped with flares-metering equipment, all flared gas resources should be categorised and data about flaring activity should be transmitted to the National Petroleum Regulatory Commission. All oilandgas operators flaring gas without permit after the flare-out date will have to pay a fine equal at least to the value ofthegas flared. In addition, gas utilisation plans will now be a pre-condition for obtaining an oil production license, andthe Commission might reject the application for a license if it is not satisfied by the presented plan.
5 Spatial mismatch is also an important concern. Spatial mismatch theory states that in the last several decades job growth has been predominantly a suburban phenomenon while black workers reside disproportionately in urban areas relative to white workers. This mismatch of jobs in suburban areas and black workers in urban areas has been widely cited in the literature as a significant factor in higher rates of unemployment for black workers in recent decades (Holzer et al 2011; Aslund, Osth, and Zenou 2010; Partridge and Rickman 2008; Wang 2008; Johnson 2006; McQuaid 2006; Partridge and Rickman 2006; Houston 2005; Brueckner and Zenou 2003; Smith and Zenou 2003; Zenou and Boccard 2000; Holzer et al. 1994; Kain 1992; Holzer 1991; Ihlanfeldt and Sjoquist1990). In terms oftheoilandgas sector, spatial mismatch theory might explain a portion ofthe lower share of employment for black workers in oiland natural gas fields. These jobs are typically located in rural areas as the majority ofoilandgasdevelopment occurs outside metropolitan areas.
Russian oilandgas are playing a vital role in the world markets, but they also represent an important and (still) the most successful part ofthe national economy. However, whether theoilandgas sector will become an engine for the country’s development in the medium and long run depends to a large extent on the performance ofthe sector itself, and particularly on whether it will be able to overcome the looming supply bottlenecks. Part ofthe problem is to be solved via the large-scale energy-saving measures envisaged by the federal 'Energy Strategy' and implying, among other things, a tariff reform aimed at bringing domestic prices for natural gasand electricity closer to the world level. In addition, the country’s gas industry is to be reorganized on a competitive basis, with only transportation and distribution remaining in state hands. In theoil sector, transportation constraints are becoming much of a concern, as they may hamper the country’s ambitious projects of simultaneous penetration into several important energy markets, such as those ofthe United States and East Asia. As of now, there are reasons to believe that Russia will continue its strategy of free-riding on OPEC supply cuts in the years to come, not least because ofthe recent warming ofthe Russian-American relations. Another issue is whether theoil sector will be able cope with production bottlenecks, as the bulk of currently operating deposits are largely exhausted andthe most promising oilfields are situated in remote areas of Northern Russia, East Siberia andthe Far East. Finally, a lot will depend on whether Russian exporters will be able to export more refined oil products and less crude oil.
Mastromonaco 2017; Tsvetkova and Partridge 2016; Lee 2015; Michieka and Richard 2015; Munasib and Rickman 2015; Paredes et al. 2015; Weinstein 2014; Weber 2012). Overall, the research points to local economic benefits from oilandgasdevelopment, but there is some variation by region and in terms ofthe magnitude ofthe effects. In a notable recent study, Feyrer, Mansur and Sacerdote (2017) find that new oilandgas extraction between 2005 and 2012 added 640,000 jobs in the United States and decreased the overall unemployment rate by 0.43. Locally, they find that each million dollars in oilandgas production led to an additional $80,000 in wage income within an oilandgas producing county. Nearly 40 percent of that income was due to local economic spillovers, providing income to workers outside theoilandgas industry. They also find that two-thirds of these income increases persist for two year after the initial production increase (Feyrer, Mansur and Sacerdote 2017).
change adaptation measures ( Challinor et al., 2009; Müller et al., 2011; Rosenzweig et al., 2013 ). Improved understanding of cli- mate change impacts can, however, be derived from outputs of biophysical modelling approaches ( Araya et al., 2015 ). These bio- physical modelling approaches can facilitate thedevelopmentof potential adaptation and mitigation options that will beneﬁt agri- culture and enhance energy production when energy crops are grown for bioenergy ( Holzworth et al., 2014 ). Biophysical mod- elling at various scales (e.g. Challinor et al., 2009; Holzworth et al., 2014; Hoogenboom et al., 2004 ) have been deployed on various occasions to assess the impacts of climate change on crop produc- tion and/or to develop agro-management strategies for adaptation to future climate change events (e.g., Challinor, 2009; Holzworth et al., 2014; Kim et al., 2013; Lehmann et al., 2013; Masutomi et al., 2009 ). Biophysical models have been widely used to evalu- ate climate change impacts on crop production globally, but rarely applied to theoil palm belt oftheNigerDelta region. In response to this research need, this study employs the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to (1) investigate and present a better understanding ofthe regional vari- ability of yield potentials ofoil palm under different climate change scenarios across the Nigerian NigerDelta based on existing oil palm areas ( Okoro et al., 2016 ) that could be used for integrated assess- ment models, and (2) to examine the effect of output of different GCM forcing data with varied West African Monsoon (WAM) repre- sentations in regional impact models (e.g. APSIM). APSIM had been widely used in farming systems which includes agroforestry to simulate yield, crop/tree growth anddevelopment based on envi- ronmental variables (e.g. Amarasingha et al., 2015; Anwar et al., 2015; Bayala, 2016; Holzworth et al., 2014; Huth et al., 2002; Lv et al., 2015; Matere et al., 2015 ). Finally, several adaptation strate- gies (e.g., full irrigation, adjustment of planting date, planting depth and density, fertilization) are evaluated with the aim to reduce the negative impact of climate change on palm oil production.