Nach oben pdf Satellite geodesy for sea level and climate change

Satellite geodesy for sea level and climate change

Satellite geodesy for sea level and climate change

In the case of highly coupled fields, all maps approach the unity and the Pearson and the first heterogeneous maps are similar. Results from the SVD and the PCA-CCA method agree with each other. The strongest correlation occurs between SLA and STA in the Mediterranean Sea, significant correlations are observed between SLA and WSA in both the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. The statistical decompositions are selected to build a single-mission model and reconstruct the sea level variability in the Mediterranean Sea. Only the first few statistical modes need to be considered because they account for most of the variability. In the single- field case, the advantage of the PCA representation over the spectral one comes from the easier implementation and the smaller computational effort required. The model is formed by spatial grids and time series that are interpolated to the required space and time position respectively to compute the value for the model. The models constructed from the statis- tical analysis of the coupled fields have a similar structure. No direct physical relationship necessarily exists between the statistical modes identified in the two fields, however the SVD method is more suitable to produce decompositions with physically correlated components because the PCA-CCA canonical temporal patterns have a zero-lag, constraint which is often not realistic. For example, the 1-month lag between the first temporal patterns of the SVD decomposition of the SLA and STA fields has a physical interpretation. For the construction of the model, however, the physical relationship between the modes is not a priority and the PCA-CCA method is chosen for the extrapolation of the model because the zero-lag condi- tion simplifies the computations. The accuracy of each SLA model in representing the sea level variability in the Mediterranean Sea is assessed comparing sea level height differences at DXOs having a 10-day constraint with DXOs obtained from data corrected using
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Satellite geodesy for sea level and climate change

Satellite geodesy for sea level and climate change

In the case of highly coupled fields, all maps approach the unity and the Pearson and the first heterogeneous maps are similar. Results from the SVD and the PCA-CCA method agree with each other. The strongest correlation occurs between SLA and STA in the Mediterranean Sea, significant correlations are observed between SLA and WSA in both the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. The statistical decompositions are selected to build a single-mission model and reconstruct the sea level variability in the Mediterranean Sea. Only the first few statistical modes need to be considered because they account for most of the variability. In the single- field case, the advantage of the PCA representation over the spectral one comes from the easier implementation and the smaller computational effort required. The model is formed by spatial grids and time series that are interpolated to the required space and time position respectively to compute the value for the model. The models constructed from the statis- tical analysis of the coupled fields have a similar structure. No direct physical relationship necessarily exists between the statistical modes identified in the two fields, however the SVD method is more suitable to produce decompositions with physically correlated components because the PCA-CCA canonical temporal patterns have a zero-lag, constraint which is often not realistic. For example, the 1-month lag between the first temporal patterns of the SVD decomposition of the SLA and STA fields has a physical interpretation. For the construction of the model, however, the physical relationship between the modes is not a priority and the PCA-CCA method is chosen for the extrapolation of the model because the zero-lag condi- tion simplifies the computations. The accuracy of each SLA model in representing the sea level variability in the Mediterranean Sea is assessed comparing sea level height differences at DXOs having a 10-day constraint with DXOs obtained from data corrected using
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Decision-making in relation to climate and climate change in the People's Republic of China : from adaptation to sea-level rise to destination choice in Chinese tourism

Decision-making in relation to climate and climate change in the People's Republic of China : from adaptation to sea-level rise to destination choice in Chinese tourism

China is seen as a major tourist generating country and the international tourism industry projects high expectations in the number of potential Chinese travellers. Chapter 7 investigates further the motivation of Chinese tourists to travel at all. In order to further understand the role of push and pull factors, 8 and climate as such a potential factor, an analysis into the notions of novelty-seeking and similarity-to-home in holiday choice is discussed in terms of size of the country of origin and size of the destination country. China is a large country; therefore, tourists are predisposed to domestic trips (regardless of their preference for novelty or similarity-to-home). This is valid for climate as well as other factors, since China covers almost all climate zones. A regional analysis of tourist attractions in China emphasised the importance of access to tourist spots. The preference of Chinese tourists for nature was more influenced by the natural surroundings, in general, than the absolute number of nature spots in a region. The preference of domestic Chinese tourists for the northeast of the country, and perusal of the sightseeing attractions on offer, supports the finding that Chinese preference is for attractions other than cultural or natural. These preferences are also evident in the destinations Chinese tourists visit abroad, e.g. German tours for Chinese tourists include a visit to a motor factory. Furthermore, the influence of source of information on destination choice in China is discussed. A detailed look at the selection of sources allows some conclusions to be drawn on what is communicated to which group of tourists in the country and whether official policy is more successful than commercial providers. Whereas the regression analysis in chapter 6 showed a relative importance of promoted sights (at least by official and commercial sources, less so by the self-help net) against the actual existence of spots, the
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Protecting German North Sea Estuaries in Times of Climate Change

Protecting German North Sea Estuaries in Times of Climate Change

• increase / decrease of river run off into the estuary and • increase / decrease of the local wind over the estuary on the highest water level along the estuaries during storm surge are analysed. The parameters mentioned are varied according to the knowledge about expected changes in a future climate. The sensitivity is studied using hydrodynam- ical numerical models of the estuaries (UnTRIM, V. Casulli and R.A.Walters (2000), BAW, 2004). In a second step the efficacy of several adaptation measures is investigated. As an example storm surge barriers in the mouth of the estuar- ies are tested varying again the mentioned parameters that might change in a future climate. The results will help to identify vulnerabilities of e. g. the shore protection of each estuary and give a chance to develop an adaptation route for the waterways in the estuaries of Elbe, Jade - Weser and Ems in order to mitigate problems caused by climate
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Sea Environment Induced Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure

Sea Environment Induced Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure

Abstract: Climate change is a natural phenomenon which accelerates due to human activities. This would result in altering the natural processes on the Earth. The climate change impacts on the sea environment have adverse effects on the coastal infrastructures. There will be large variation in temperature, humidity, water density, wave and current parameters due to sea level rise and, which all together affect the structures. It accelerates the rate of deterioration of the structure in the form of corrosion, sulphate attack, erosion and scouring at the foundation due to waves, current, etc. In this paper, a berthing structure in a port located along the west coast of India is considered for the study. The berthing structure was severely damaged due to the exposure to the aggressive sea environment. Visual inspection and non-destructive tests like UPV, Half-cell potential, powder sampling, core sampling were conducted to assess the damage occurred to the structure and retrofitting methodology is proposed in order to prolong the life of the structure.
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Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region : The Vulnerability of German Ports

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region : The Vulnerability of German Ports

In a recent survey on the vulnerability of German Baltic Sea ports due to climate change within the frame of the German research project RADOST, the Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IÖW) has questioned port operators and port-based businesses (for details on this survey see page 8). The survey results on the ports’ current readiness for a rise in sea level show that a majority of participating ports will be required to adapt by 2050 if the sea level rises faster than predicted by the IPCC. Especially older and low laying port areas will have to be elevated to avoid flooding. This opportunity of modernisation and reconstruction should be utilised to implement other adaptation measures.
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Air-sea gas exchange CO2 and O2 under climate change / Peter Landschützer

Air-sea gas exchange CO2 and O2 under climate change / Peter Landschützer

The model initialization and the configuration of the MICOM-HAMOCC model are de- scribed in Assmann et al. [2010]. Therefore, this chapter provides just a short summary, including the differences to the model version described in Assmann et al. [2010]. The model uses an irregular 163x150 global grid that gets more and more deformed with in- creasing latitude. The model provides output for 35 different isopycnal layers. The first layer of these describes the mixed layer. Since the mixed layer is influenced by external forces, like e.g. air-sea interactions, turbulence occurs in this layer and therefore it is assumed to be well mixed. In the work of Assmann et al. [2010] the MICOM model was initialized using a monthly NCEP based climatology (Kalnay et al. [1996]). The global mean profiles from the World Ocean Atlas 2005 (Boyer et al. [2006]) and GLODAP data (Key et al. [2004]) were used to initialize HAMOCC. The initialized data were used to spin up the model, at first for 600 years, and then another 350 years with repeated passes of the NCEP reanalysis from the years 1950 to 1999. Additionally, a Newtonian relaxation of the sea surface temperature and the sea surface salinity is applied during the spin up, to sustain the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a stable and realistic way (Assmann et al. [2010]). The initialization uses a pre-industrial CO 2 level
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Titel: Sea Level Variations  derived from Mass Conserving  Finite Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model;   Untertitel: Study of Major Contributions to Sea Level Change in the Recent Past

Titel: Sea Level Variations derived from Mass Conserving Finite Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model; Untertitel: Study of Major Contributions to Sea Level Change in the Recent Past

Long term influence on ocean circulation due to ice sheet melting can be investigated on decadal time scales. This includes estimation of present and future variations of salinity changes caused by the additional fresh water, of regional heat content including the ex- change of heat between atmosphere and ocean, and of changes in the ocean surface fluxes within different climate scenarios. In addition, variations in the deep water formation in the Weddell, Labrador and Greenland Seas as well as the convection and stratification in these regions should be investigated. This is in particular important for the North At- lantic. If deep water production changes in the future, it will have strong impacts on the temperature in Europe. For this reason, the influence of Greenland Ice Sheet melting on the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) transports should be investigated including sensitivity experiments. Here, a refined grid is needed in the North Atlantic, which can then also be used to analyze influences on major ocean currents like the Gulf Stream, its extension, and on coastal currents.
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Investigation of temperature and sea level changes in the North Sea for the period 1948-2010

Investigation of temperature and sea level changes in the North Sea for the period 1948-2010

In this study, GECCO2 data, covering the years 1948-2011, are used for providing the laterial open boundary data for the North Sea model (section 2.3 ). Here, we only give a short description about GECCO2 summarized from Köhl et al. ( 2012 ), where more details can be found. As an ocean re-analysis product from the German contri- bution to the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) based on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model ( Marshall et al. , 1997 ), the GECCO2 model was congured on a horizontal grid with a 1/3° telescopic meridional renement at the equator and isotropic grid cells north of 25 ° N that were continued north of 66° N with a polar cap of roughly 40 km resolution, and on a vertical grid with 50 levels. The assimilated data adapted in the GECCO model include satellite altimeter data from Topex/Jason (TP), ERS1/ERS2/Envisat (ERS) and the Geosat Follow On mission (GFO), and SST data from Advanced Mi- crowave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR/E), and temperature and salinity anomalies of Argo proles data, which were calculated with respect to the World Ocean Atlas 2005. The mean sea surface height was assimilated as well, taken from the combi- nation of the GRACE Gravity Model 02 geoid with the mean sea surface ( Tapley et al. , 2005 ). The atmospheric data are taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, which include surface air temperature, humidity, precipitation and the 10 m wind speeds. Surface uxes are calculated by the model via bulk formulae according to
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Storm Surges in German North Sea Estuaries and Climate Change – Investigating Impacts and Developing Adaptation Strategies

Storm Surges in German North Sea Estuaries and Climate Change – Investigating Impacts and Developing Adaptation Strategies

The highest water level during storm surge scenario SF06 with and without this narrowing measure is shown in Figure 4 for today’s sea-level and a sea-level rise of 25 cm, 80 cm and 115 cm. The dam de- creases the highest water level during storm surge upstream of the narrowing measure by about 20 cm in all scenarios investigated. But the effect of the sea-level rise can still be found along the whole estuary. Additional measures are needed to protect against storm surges and sea-level rise. In the area of the dam the current velocities in the fairway of the Elbe will change. It must be checked if this adaptation measure has side effects for the navigability of the Elbe fairway.
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Modified Ramsey Discounting for Climate Change

Modified Ramsey Discounting for Climate Change

gradually fade because of adaptation (Tol 2002a). People can die prematurely due to climate change, or they can migrate because of sea level rise. Like all impacts of climate change, these effects are monetized. The value of a statistical life is set to be 200 times the annual per capita income. The resulting value of a statistical life lies in the middle of the observed range of values in the literature (Cline 1992). The value of emigration is set to be 3 times the per capita income (Tol 1995), the value of immigration is 40 per cent of the per capita income in the host region (Cline 1992). Losses of dryland and wetlands due to sea level rise are modeled explicitly. The monetary value of a loss of one square kilometre of dryland was on average $4 million in OECD countries in 1990 (Fankhauser 1994). Dryland value is assumed to be proportional to GDP per square kilometre. Wetland losses are valued at $2 million per square
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8. Impact of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise on Storm Surges

8. Impact of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise on Storm Surges

RAPER (1993) studied in detail the relationship between climate change and the fre- quency and intensity of severe tropical cyclones for the six tropical cyclogenesis regions[r]

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Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Baltic Sea Region

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Baltic Sea Region

Within the Adaptation Action Plan’s area on knowledge and information, focus is given to the support of municipalities, for whom adaptation is still a rather new issue. An assessment showed that knowledge transfer and the provision of methods for the assessment of climate change and its impacts is currently their main focus. To support local level activities in this regard, adaptation projects in various regions were initiated (including RADOST). The goal of these programs is to provide assistance for local decision makers and produce transferable solutions. The National Climate Change Initiative gives new possibilities for municipalities to fund adaptation measures.
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Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Disasters. A Review of Modeling Practices

Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Disasters. A Review of Modeling Practices

Bosello et al. (2012), within the PESETA project, highlight the vast gap between the direct costs estimated by the DIVA model and the economy-wide cost estimated with a static CGE model, when only the loss of land is considered. In 15 out of 25 countries, the direct costs of land losses are higher than the GDP costs, and their distribution also changes. Market mechanisms explain the cost redistribution. Land and agricultural prices increase, with a benefit for net food exporters such as the EU. The net GDP loss at the World level reduces the demand of energy commodities, causing a reduction in their prices, with negative effects on energy exporters. This leads to an improvement in the terms of trade of the EU. The authors offer some guidelines for interpreting the results. The static nature of the CGE model fails to capture the multiplicative effect of coastal-related investments and property losses. By modeling sea level rise as a loss of productive land, the effect primarily falls on the land- intensive agricultural sector. When effects on infrastructure and population are accounted for, impact estimates are much higher. Ciscar et al. (2012), within the PESETA project, apply the static CGE model GEM-E3 to analyze the joint impacts of climate change on tourism, agriculture, river floods and coastal system on the EU economy. The temperature increase considered ranges from 2.5°C to 5.4°C and sea level is assumed to rise from 0.49 m to 0.88 m, respectively. Resulting impacts are imposed on today’s economy. Effects of sea level rise consist in floods and forced migration. Flooded areas and people displaced are taken from the DIVA model and they are implemented in the CGE model as loss of productive capital and additional household expenditure, respectively. This additional expenditure does not provide a welfare gain, but it represents a welfare loss since households are forced to migrate. Under these modeling assumptions, sea level rise represents a considerable share of welfare and GDP losses. In Europe, climate change can induce a welfare loss ranging between 0.22 and 0.98% and between 72 and 47% of them are due to the impacts on the coastal systems. They are particularly severe in Central and Northern Europe and reach 80% of total losses in the British Isles.
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Climate change adaptation strategies in the Baltic Sea Region

Climate change adaptation strategies in the Baltic Sea Region

Latvia does not yet have a national adaptation strategy. Under the project BaltCICA, however, a small regional strategy has been developed for the region of Salacgriva. Furthermore, adaptation is being implemented in some broader initiatives. For example, on the national level the national strategy for spatial development of the coastal area takes adaptation into account. The expected climate impacts on the Latvian waters were identified through the national research programme KALME. Moreover the City of Riga is implementing an integrated strategy to adapt the city to the changes in hydrological processes, a project co-funded by the European LIFE+ Programme. In 2008, the Latvian government presented a first report on climate adaptation, which will serve as a basis for developing a national adaptation strategy. This was planned for the year 2011 to be managed by the Department of Climate and Renewable Energies within the Latvian Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional
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Climate change

Climate change

4.4 Ireland: Climate and Climate Change It is well known that Ireland’s temperate climate is principally influenced by the North Atlantic Ocean and particularly the Gulf Stream circulation. The fact that significant indications of changes in climate can be detected in data from the west coast of Ireland in an oceanically dominated climatic regime is particularly noteworthy and is significant on a national and international level. Some of these changes could be regarded as being positive, i.e., higher minimum temperatures, decrease in occurrence of frost days and longer growing season. However, changes, such as increased winter-time precipitation levels and decreased sunshine levels, may not be regarded as beneficial developments. The build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is projected to lead to increased changes to our climate in future. There are very large levels of uncertainty as to what these changes will be (IPCC, 2001). What is certain is that the increased levels of greenhouse gases trap heat energy in our atmosphere. This more energetic atmosphere is likely to be more erratic and less predictable than today’s with more extreme weather events occurring. If unchecked, long- term climate changes for Ireland may be extreme, for example, if oceanic heating is reduced due to the North Atlantic Drift circulation being reduced or halted. There may also be surprises, which have significant environmental, social and economic impacts that will be difficult to deal with. Ireland should, therefore, support efforts to understand the impacts of climate change through research and the further development of observational systems as required under the Kyoto Protocol. Some possible steps to do this are outlined in the following section.
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Holocene sea-level change on the central coast of Bohai Bay, China

Holocene sea-level change on the central coast of Bohai Bay, China

fine-grained Yellow River sediment and because its shore- line is situated on the broad shelf of the East China Sea (Fig. 1). During the Holocene sea-level rise the increasing water load in the west Pacific Ocean basin should have lifted the Bohai Sea shelf and pushed the shoreline landward, while the fluvial sediment input should have pushed the shoreline seaward. The two processes may have peaked at different times and their contrasting effect on shoreline migration may have varied accordingly. Beyond that, being situated in the far field, the shoreline should have migrated landward in re- sponse to the rising water level. The shelf effect and the ris- ing water level is well-described by sea-level physics, and the associated glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) models predict a sea level elevated by up to 10 m height due to shelf lever- ing (e.g. Milne and Mitrovica, 2008). Indeed, a several-metre sea-level highstand is predicted for the East China Sea coast during the mid-Holocene (Bradley et al., 2016), but this high highstand seems to be an overestimate when compared to ob- servational data (Bradley et al., 2016) which indicate a mi- nor Holocene highstand for the East China Sea coast (Zong, 2004) and no obvious Holocene highstand for delta area of Yangtze River (Xiong et al., 2020) and the Pearl River delta (Xiong et al., 2018). From this the question arises whether the observational data are inaccurate, whether the GIA model parameters are too poorly constrained and how fluvial sedi- ment supply influences the sea-level history.
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Investment Strategies for Climate Change Mitigation

Investment Strategies for Climate Change Mitigation

First, the impacts of technological spillovers under climate policies are analyzed by means of a multi-regional model with technological change in form of interregional spillovers. Model results indicate that the higher the ratio between the spillover intensities for energy and labour efficiency, the lower are mitigation costs. As well, first-mover advantages and commitment incentives for climate policy scenarios are investigated. A multi-regional hybrid model with a more complex energy system is used for studying investments into energy technologies in detail. In climate policy scenarios the entire energy consumption is reduced, while renewable energy and CCS technologies are expanded immediately. Different regions follow quite different mitigation strategies. While ambitious climate targets can be reached with moderate global costs, the regional costs show a high variance. In addition, Integrated Assessment models are used to investigate what happens if the world will not agree on a climate friendly policy within the next years. The impacts of early investments into renewable energy technologies in first-best and second-best worlds are analyzed. Mitigation costs increase significantly, if the climate policy implementation is delayed. In contrast, early deployment of renewable energy technologies reduces the global costs. Within a five-region hybrid model the impacts of dynamics and direction of technological change under climate change mitigation are studied. It turns out that mitigation costs and strategies are quite sensitive to these variables. Further experiments indicate that the impacts depend on the set of available technologies. For studying the role of endogenous technological change for climate change mitigation, this model is extended by a new formulation of efficiency improvements. It turns out that investments into the efficiency of some energy sectors play a crucial role for low mitigation costs. In climate policy scenarios, the increased mitigation costs of technological restrictions can be overcome by R&D investments into energy efficiencies.
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Salt-marsh foraminifera and their potential for sea-level studies in the North Sea region

Salt-marsh foraminifera and their potential for sea-level studies in the North Sea region

Table of mean water-level differences between Cuxhaven and “Tümlauer Hafen” for different wind strengths and directions and the number of cases.. Regional water-level differences between[r]

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Endogenous Technological Change in Strategies for Mitigating Climate Change

Endogenous Technological Change in Strategies for Mitigating Climate Change

The type of technological knowledge that spills over makes a difference for the effectiveness of this type of issue linking: research cooperation focusing on productivity is unambiguousl[r]

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