Nach oben pdf Resilience to economic shocks and the long reach of childhood bullying

Resilience to economic shocks and the long reach of childhood bullying

Resilience to economic shocks and the long reach of childhood bullying

actual circumstances over time. 5 The second, by two economists, likens hedonic adaptation to the ability of human eye to adjust quickly – for sound reasons of self-preservation – to changes in the amount of light. Rayo and Becker set out a model of how Nature might optimally designed human beings’ emotional responses to behave in a similar way. The third, by two psychologists, suggests that hedonic adaptation is not reducible to the type in the sensory system, but is a direct consequence of the human’s need to explain and make sense of stimuli. They advocate a model which explains how human beings’ affective responses weaken – through processes of rationalization – after one or more exposures to a stimulus. In the fourth paper, Truglia and Nicolas develop a model in which Nature finds it optimal to allow some sensations to adapt strongly (e.g. dopamine) while others to not adapt at all (irritant sense, pain). The authors show that people are less likely to adapt to sensations that Nature has designed to have strong defensive and warning roles, thus explaining why there is differential rate of adaptation across different life events.
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On the Response of Economic Aggregates to Monetary Policy Shocks

On the Response of Economic Aggregates to Monetary Policy Shocks

Bernanke et al. (2005) introduced a combination of VAR model and factor model to capture large information set which a simple VAR analysis is unable to incorporate. They use a diffusion indexes develop by Stock and Watson (2002) to estimate the factors by utilizing a balanced panel of 120 monthly macroeconomic series (1959:1-2001:8). They argue that the FAVAR is more capable of delivering large information based upon small set of estimated factors. A recursive structure is assumed with identifying assumption of no contemporaneous response of unobserved factors to monetary policy shocks 4 . The comparison of 3-variable VAR with two FAVAR specifications reveals the fact that standard VAR results show a significant price puzzle and inconsistent production response with the long-run money neutrality. However, the FAVAR approach improves the results as price puzzle disappears after one year, real activity declines, monetary aggregates fall and exchange rate appreciates for USA. As in Forni et al. (2010), since the study did not distinguish between number of static factors and structural shocks, a large number of economic restrictions are imposed to reach the identification. Moreover, the restrictions are imposed on IRFs of static factors instead of IRF of variables.
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Present Bias and Underinvestment in Education? Long-run Effects of Childhood Exposure to Booms in Colombia

Present Bias and Underinvestment in Education? Long-run Effects of Childhood Exposure to Booms in Colombia

relate to several previous studies. 7 Atkin (2016) documents that the arrival of formal jobs during years of substantial expansions in export-manufacturing industries in Mexico led to reduced school attendance and lower educational attainment, although it had no overall impacts on subsequent labor market income. An important distinction is that Atkin (2016) focuses on large formal firms, which provide valuable on-the-job-training opportunities and skill accumulation that may offset income losses from reduced formal schooling. This paper contributes by providing evidence that different labor market shocks are likely to have different long-run implications. Charles et al. (Forthcoming) show that the housing boom during the 2000s reduced college attendance among young adults and this decline was not completely reversed years later, providing suggestive evidence that these shocks may have permanently affected college education in the United States. However, it is unclear the extent to which findings in industrialized settings generalize to human capital formation in less developed countries. In countries with poor enforcement of child labor laws and absence of well-functioning credit markets, changes in economic conditions are likely to play a prominent role in early educational decisions of youths.
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Long-Run Effects of Childhood Shocks on Health in Late Adulthood: Evidence from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe

Long-Run Effects of Childhood Shocks on Health in Late Adulthood: Evidence from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe

position (high-skilled white collar, low-skilled white collar, low-skilled blue collar, etc.) derived from ISCO type of occupation and the corresponding skill level. Finally, our childhood social status controls – all associated with the age of 10 – include the following: the number of books in the household as a proxy for intellect of parents, rooms per person, the number of features of the accommodation (e.g. central heating, indoor bath room, warm water, etc.), and the socio-economic posi- tion derived from the type of occupation of the main breadwinner in the household. In addition, we include information on the area of living, the variable rural takes the value one if the first residence reported has been in a rural area or a small town. Moreover, in all estimations birth year and country of origin dummies to control for fixed cohort effects, like a specific war-effect all members of a birth cohort are exposed to, are included. As there are, typically, small individual correlations of the childhood shocks and these childhood social status variables, it is necessary to carefully control for these.
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Long-Run Effects of Childhood Shocks on Health in Late Adulthood: Evidence from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe

Long-Run Effects of Childhood Shocks on Health in Late Adulthood: Evidence from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe

position (high-skilled white collar, low-skilled white collar, low-skilled blue collar, etc.) derived from ISCO type of occupation and the corresponding skill level. Finally, our childhood social status controls – all associated with the age of 10 – include the following: the number of books in the household as a proxy for intellect of parents, rooms per person, the number of features of the accommodation (e.g. central heating, indoor bath room, warm water, etc.), and the socio-economic posi- tion derived from the type of occupation of the main breadwinner in the household. In addition, we include information on the area of living, the variable rural takes the value one if the first residence reported has been in a rural area or a small town. Moreover, in all estimations birth year and country of origin dummies to control for fixed cohort effects, like a specific war-effect all members of a birth cohort are exposed to, are included. As there are, typically, small individual correlations of the childhood shocks and these childhood social status variables, it is necessary to carefully control for these.
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Childhood Health Shocks, Comparative Advantage, and Long-Term Outcomes: Evidence from the Last Danish Polio Epidemic

Childhood Health Shocks, Comparative Advantage, and Long-Term Outcomes: Evidence from the Last Danish Polio Epidemic

4 Our evidence builds on a small public health literature on the medium and long-term consequences of polio among survivors. Most of these studies use small survey samples of (selected) polio survivors, who had paralytic or non- paralytic polio, and compare their outcomes to those of matched never infected individuals ( Lønnberg , 1993 ; Farbu et al. , 2001 ; Farbu and Gilhus , 2002 ; Nielsen et al. , 2003 , 2016 ). Studies on 150 to 170 polio survivors in Norway conclude that “the polio epidemics in the 1950s to a surprisingly little degree influenced social characteristics such as education, employment and professional life,” even though the survey participants stated that they “regarded their physical handicap as decisive for their choice of profession” ( Farbu et al. , 2001 , p 503). This finding may be due to three factors: (a) small sample sizes may be underpowered to detect differences in some outcomes, such as education; (b) the studies do not distinguish between occupations by their “brawn” content (e.g., the trade and office category could include manual work in a skilled trade as well as white-collar occupations); (c) the studies rely on survey reports among polio survivors, and thus sample selection based on health and socio-economic status may bias the conclusions. Indeed, consistent with the last point, Nielsen et al. ( 2003 ) document that Danish (paralytic) polio survivors have a higher long-term mortality risk than the overall population. At the same time, Nielsen et al. ( 2016 ) find that Danish polio survivors have higher educational attainment but similar total income when compared to matched controls.
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Risks, shocks, building resilience: Philippines

Risks, shocks, building resilience: Philippines

Page 14 of 38 Individual economies try to find ways to cope with risks and vulnerability to external and exogenous shocks. When disaster strikes, ill-prepared communities, or even those thought to be prepared for such shocks, suffer catastrophic loss of lives, property, and infrastructure so huge and stressful that it could take them years to recover and rebuild from the trauma Some communities wrestle with dim prospects of recovery and a long-term decline in population and economic activities. Some recover but only very slowly. Shimada (2015) describes the aftermath of the Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake, which struck Kobe, Japan, in 1995. The earthquake killed 6,343 people and led to the exodus of 85,000 people away from Kobe. It took almost 10 years for the population to return to its 1994 level. Population recovery is an essential part of disaster recovery and is a reasonable proxy for recovery (Vale and Campanella 2005). Unless immediately acted upon, post-distaster trauma in terms of loss of precious lives, property, businesses, and means of livelihood can leave communities vulnerable to severe economic decline and susceptible to various societal dysfunctions such as descent to chaos after a tsunami, urban blight, breakdown of law and order, and others. Van der Vegt et al. (2015) stresed that when social structure disintegrates, whole families and, perhaps, even communities, fall deeper into poverty and want.
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Agricultural development in a changing climate in Zambia: increasing resilience to climate change and economic shocks in crop production

Agricultural development in a changing climate in Zambia: increasing resilience to climate change and economic shocks in crop production

These threats were particularly severe for the urban population, who is entirely dependent on buying food, whereas farmers could have been the winners, with high prices as incentives for raising their productivity. Unfor- tunately, these benefits were rather low in Zambia. For smallholders, this was true, because they are mostly net consumers, so they also suffered more from high prices than benefiting by them, at least for the first time after the price rise. For commercial farmers, the benefits were also relatively low, as the input prices – for fertilisers and fuel – also doubled or tripled, so that gross margins stayed rather small (Henriot 2008, 1; FEWS NET 2008, 4). Last but not least, some traders were speculating by hoarding maize, prompting the FRA to sell maize from strategic food stocks to stabilise prices, which led to shrinking food reserves (FEWS NET 2008, 5). As a consequence, Zambia was listed by FAO among nineteen countries that were particularly threatened by the global food crisis (FAO 2008, 30). Moreover, given its weak fiscal capacity, Zambia was said to have prob- lems spending more money to buffer the effects of the food crisis (PREM /ARD / DEC 2008, 6). However, the potential winners of high food prices, the farmers, would have really benefited if prices had stayed high, so they could have increased their production for the next season. But this was not possible, because the global financial crisis was already under way. During the food crisis, GRZ established a “Task Force on Rising Food Prices”, which put together a comprehensive report in September 2008, including a short-, medium- and long-term action plan, but it could not gain political relevance (GRZ 2008).
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The role of national settings in the economic resilience of regions – Evidence from recessionary shocks in Europe from 1990 to 2014

The role of national settings in the economic resilience of regions – Evidence from recessionary shocks in Europe from 1990 to 2014

The objective of the statistical model is to isolate the effects of the selected inherent resilience determinant from effects that are related to (unobservable) confounding factors. In this regard, the panel data set-up offers two main advantages. First, we observe a longer time range and can assess the impacts of determinants from several shock-events of the same “nature” (see Section 2.1). This enables the model to absorb all cross-sectional differences in each resilience phase, preventing these average differences from influencing our estimates. Any time-constant region- or country-specific characteristics are accounted for via level-specific effects as expressed in formula (3) and (4). These parts of the error component are catch-all terms for any sources of spatial (unobserved) heteroge- neity at regional and national level. This is particularly important as our study focuses on inherent determinants of resilience that are likely to be correlated with confounding time-sluggish factors as, for example, agglomeration economies or varying endowment of (human) capital. Furthermore, gradual changes in region-specific growth rates that may be driven by slowly altering factors, such as demographic shifts, integration in the global economy, evolving institutions or slow adjustments in economic policies as well as long-run conditional convergence, are accounted for by region-specific time trends (Barro & Sala-i-Martin, 2004). Second, the panel model utilises annual data and thereby captures temporal variations in the tested determinants of interest. In contrast to cross-section models that regress static pre-shock values of determinants on resilience indicators, our model recognises that resilience determinants are exposed to potential shock-induced changes and adjustments (besides yearly fluctuations).
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Advancing REACH - REACH and substitution

Advancing REACH - REACH and substitution

According to the reviewed reports, Authorisation is the most important process for the support of substitution by REACH. (In addition, Authorisation is a subject of intense public discussion due to its far-reaching consequences for the availability of SVHCs. This can be an additional explanation for the focus of the studies). The triggers for substitution under the process of Authorisation are listed in the table in chronological order: the entry of intention of SVHC identification into the PACT, the actual placement on the Candidate List and the inclusion in Annex XIV. With each step, the pressure (which can be seen as an incentive) for research and development for substitution rises. At the latest when it is decided that Authorisation must be applied for a certain substance, an assessment of alternatives must be carried out. Already before, classification and labelling of a substance (and mixtures) or other regulatory actions such as the Risk Management Options Analysis can start discussions on substitution in companies which are following the REACH activities.
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On the long-run neutrality of demand shocks

On the long-run neutrality of demand shocks

λ 2 0.450 0.152 3.2 Impulse Responses and the Test on the Long-run Re- striction Figure 4 shows the impulse responses of the higher volatility state that are resulted from the identification via changes in volatility. We label the first shock as the aggregate demand shock because its effects on output and unemployment go in the opposite directions, which is a stylized fact. In contrast, the responses of output and unemployment are both positive after an aggregate supply shock. The identified demand shocks have a hump- shaped impact on both output and unemployment. After a positive supply shock, the output increases steadily for around 5 years and then stays at a plateau level. The response of the unemployment is initially positive but declines to zero over time. In general, our impulse responses are in line with those of Blanchard and Quah (1989), except that the impact of the demand shock on output seems not to decay to zero over time.
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Measurement of Economic Welfare Risk and Resilience of the Philippine Regions

Measurement of Economic Welfare Risk and Resilience of the Philippine Regions

28 Family income values in Table 1 are expressed in their US dollar equivalent using the exchange rate in 2012 of PhP1 = USD 0.0243. 29 In 2015, the Gini coefficient of the Philippines was 0.4439 (PSA, 2015a). It is interesting to note that the regions that have the highest income disparity between the poor and non-poor are also the largest in terms of economic size. In the National Capital Region, which contributes about a third of the country’s GDP, the average annual income of non-poor families is 3.4 times that of poor families. In Region IV-A, which is contiguous to NCR and makes the second highest contribution to GDP, the non-poor families’ average income is 3.23 times that of the non-poor. Both NCR and the Region IV-A are in the Luzon island group. Similarly, Region VII, where the country’s second largest city (Cebu City) is also located and which is located in the Visayas, the average family income of the non-poor is 3.29 times that of the poor. Region X where the country’s fourth largest city (Cagayan de Oro City) is located Mindanao, the average income of non-poor families is 3.18 times that of poor families. The extent of income disparity in family income is same as that for the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) in Luzon.
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Economic Development and Resilience to Natural Catastrophes – Insurance Penetration and Institutions

Economic Development and Resilience to Natural Catastrophes – Insurance Penetration and Institutions

Another potential concern is that the measure natural catastrophes is endogenous to economic development and insurance market development (Felbermayr and Groeschl, 2014). The reason is that the amount of monetary losses caused by a natural dis- aster might correlate with the (insurance market-) development status of a country. Moreover, (insurance market-) development might correlate with the distribution of disasters in the data set, if the insurance industry is a major source of information for compilation. 11 According to McDermott, Barry, and Tol (2013) this concern is reduced by employing a dichotomous measure for natural disasters as is done in our specifica- tion. Moreover, the potential selection bias is accounted for by the inclusion of country fixed effects into the regression. However, to fully address this issue it is necessary to include an interaction term between disasters and insurance market development into the regression to absorb the omitted effect at the moment that the disaster strikes. In the course of investigating the mediating effect of insurance markets by including an interaction term into the regression we therefore implicitly alleviate this concern. To in- vestigate the mediating effect of insurance markets we estimate the following empirical model:
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Long-term effects of early childhood care and education

Long-term effects of early childhood care and education

7 recently, studies have not examined longer-term effects of maternity leave policies on child health and development. The expected effects of leave policies on long-term child health and development are not completely clear a priori. First, results of the reforms will depend on whether and how they affect maternal time at home,as well as their influence on mediating factors like family income. The reach of any laws will further depend on the share and characteristics of the population covered, as well as by the specific provisions of the legislation. Generously paid maternity leave extensions would presumably induce covered women to stay home for a longer period of time, without substantially decreasing family income, while at the other extreme, unpaid leave would have less effect on women’s behavior and would, for those taking it up, reduce family income unless there are offsetting increases in spousal labor supply. Second, the effect of the reforms will depend on when in childhood they occur. The consequences could be very different for having a mother at home in the first weeks and months of the child’s life than later in infancy or toddlerhood.For instance, several studies have shown that maternity leave extensions early in life increase the likelihood and duration of breast-feeding (e.g. Baker and Milligan, 2008), which may in turn be beneficial for child health and development, but such effects are probably less important when considering reforms that extend leave later in the first year of life or in subsequent years. Third, the effects of any extensions will depend on the counter-factual. Where the quality of child care is high, children may benefit less from parental leave extensions than they do in situations where the quality of non-parental care is low or high quality care is difficult to afford. This discussion suggests that the effects of maternity leave reforms may not be consistent across countries or situations and indeed that is the case, as we shall see below.
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Agriculture role in social-economic resilience to majo economic crises in Romania

Agriculture role in social-economic resilience to majo economic crises in Romania

(b) Turnover variation in 2012 compared to 2008 Source: own calculations based on NIS, eDemos On-line and TEMPO on-line data While the active enterprises in industry, constructions and services continue to recover the efficiency from the period 2009 – 2010, the primary sector continues to improve its capacity to produce economic value and its contribution to the recovery of the county GDP. The graphic illustration of the variation of turnover on local active units by activity sectors, for the year 2012 reveals, more clearly, the capacity of economic operators from the primary sector to follow a growth trajectory, which can also mobilize the other economic sectors to which they supply raw materials.
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Long-term Consequences of Workplace Bullying on Sickness Absence

Long-term Consequences of Workplace Bullying on Sickness Absence

Sickness Absence * Bullying in workplaces is a problem thought to harm individual productivity. This paper investigates whether being exposed to bullying in the workplace increases long-term sickness absence. We analyze employees from a selection of workplaces from The Bullying Cohort Study conducted in Denmark in 2006. The Negative Acts Questionnaire-Revised was used to avoid bias related to self-labeling as being bullied. We account for important confounders, such as historical information on sickness absence and mental health, obtained through rich registry data. Our results show that gender does not significantly explain exposure to bullying and that exposure to bullying is associated with negative immediate self- reported health for both genders. We also find, however, that only bullied females have higher, persistent increases in long-term sickness absence and adverse long-term health. This suggests that men and women have different coping strategies. We investigate plausible explanations for this and find that the differences cannot be explained by, for example, turnover or lack of employment. Although insignificant, our results nonetheless indicate that men are twice as likely to leave the labor force immediately after exposure to bullying.
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The Long-Run Impact of Childhood Poverty and the Mediating Role of Education

The Long-Run Impact of Childhood Poverty and the Mediating Role of Education

2006; VanderWeele, 2009; Hong, 2010), principal stratification approach (Frangakis and Rubin, 2002; Jo, 2008; Jo et al., 2011) and the g-computation based algorithm (Robins and Greenland, 1992). As emphasized by a recent work of Linden and Karlson (2013), many of these methodologies are conceptu- ally interconnected, or serve as basis for the extension of other techniques. For example, the propensity score (Rosenbaum and Rubin, 1983) performs as a way of coping with the Sequential Ignorability as- sumption, in either a separate procedure (Hill et al., 2003) or as a basis for weighting and principal stratification (Peterson et al., 2006; VanderWeele, 2009; Hong, 2010; Jo et al., 2011). One of the most popular framework for identifying and estimating causal mechanisms is the above mentioned princi- pal stratification approach (PRS). 4 PRS defines causal effects by comparing individuals with the same potential values of the post-treatment variable under each of the treatment status (Frangakis and Rubin, 2002; Joffe et al., 2007). In particular, the use of PRS allows the introduction of direct versus indirect ef- fects, analyzing the notion of causality when controlling for post-treatment variables (Mealli and Rubin, 2003; Rubin, 2004). Flores and Flores-Lagunes (2009) study more in detail the relationship of the con- cept of direct versus indirect effects with respect to the total average treatment effect, and they formally discuss the identification and estimation of causal mechanisms and net effects under different assump- tions. More recently, Huber (2014) shows the identification of causal mechanisms of a binary treatment variable under the unconfoundedness assumption, basing his estimation strategy on inverse weighting. This significant increase in the number of methods recently introduced to conduct mediation analysis leads to the question of how they should be compared and selected. Huber et al. (2016) help address this question using a simulation study based
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The Relevance of EaP with Regard to Regional Economic Resilience Capacity Building

The Relevance of EaP with Regard to Regional Economic Resilience Capacity Building

4.2. Military conflicts and political instability Apart from the struggle with a heritage of the past, the new independent states emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union were to set up and support the sovereignty and solve complex geopolitical problems. However, the collapse of communism and its state institutions has created unprecedented opportunities for the redistribution of power and influence. The combination of these factors led to the outbreak of several wars and a brutal struggle for territorial integrity. In addition, many cases of internal power struggles, which were in part a reflection of the weakness of government institutions, have led to violent confrontation over the right to make policy decisions on behalf of the community. Territorial conflicts manifested in various forms, ranging from the war between neighbouring countries and ending unilateral steps by the separatist regions of disconnect. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Tajikistan and Ukraine have faced violence or civil strife.
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Resilience of Indian agriculture to external shocks: Analyzing through a structural econometric model

Resilience of Indian agriculture to external shocks: Analyzing through a structural econometric model

This study aims to test two hypotheses. First, trade and macroeconomic policy changes have positively influenced agriculture prices, trade, acreage and production, and second, output and hence growth is resilient to unexpected divergences in the macro conditions and external and internal factors. In all, five alternate scenarios of change to which Indian agriculture may be sensitive to are considered. These are variations in (a) world commodity price (b) exchange rate (c) tariffs (d) rainfall, and (e) support price. The analysis is based on three tradable commodities, viz. wheat, sugar and groundnut seed. The choice of these crops is determined by changes in their area share in gross cropped area and external trade over time. For each commodity, a structural econometric model is used, separately under the exportable and importable scenarios from 1980- 81 to 2002-03. The structural econometric model is preferred over other models as it (i) can easily incorporate Nerlovian framework, (ii) enables to study inter-linkages between sector specific variables with other sectors, and (iii) is suitable for forecasts/simulations under alternate
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A MEASURE FOR REGIONAL RESILIENCE TO ECONOMIC CRISIS

A MEASURE FOR REGIONAL RESILIENCE TO ECONOMIC CRISIS

are available on the project website: www.owsg.pl. The identification and assessment cover growth and stagnation areas based on the set of 49 indicators divided into five blocks (population and settlement, job market and economy structure, technical infrastructure and spatial availability, financial situation and wealth level, innovative economy and business environment), whereas within the framework of blocks – the factors described by means of qualities characteristic for a given factor (Perdał, Hauke 2014: 71). The studies presented by the research team are mainly focused on the territory of Poland (various NUTS levels), with particular emphasis on Wielkopolska region. For the purposes of performing comparisons the data from Slovakia, Lithuania and Latvia were used, among other things. The identification of factors and analyses were carried out with reference to the following groups of spatial units: all units, growth areas, transition areas and stagnation areas, mainly in the period 2000-2010.
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