Whereas structure plays a major role in estuaries and coastal waters, in regard to the open sea, the focus of attention must be on the atmosphere and water bodies, and their physical changes in the course of a change in climate. The weather events of the winter 2006/2007, in which the physical condition variables lay above the hitherto known range of fluctuation are already being seen as the harbingers of conditions that we may have to reckon with. On 1st November 2006, the estuary of the River Ems experienced the highest storm tide in 100 years. Only because the wind direction changed not long before high tide, was the North Frisian coast spared an exceedingly severe storm tide. Unusually high temperatures of atmosphere and sea, as well as the highest wave observed to date in the North Sea (pre- sumably higher than 18 metres) are understood as an indication of coming changes. The high temperatures of the water in the Baltic Sea in winter have created conditions favouring the immigration of species which, it is suspected, are capable of causing economic damage to the fishing industry. The extreme build-up of heat in summer means that the North Sea no longer cools to below the long-term mean value, even during the colder winters. This means that not only in the oceans, but also in German coastal waters, climatic change can lead to hitherto unknown risks for navigationand the use of oceans. Consequently, it is of vast importance that
The State Committee (also known as the 2nd Delta Com- mittee, after the 1st Delta Committee established after the 1953 flooding or Committee Veerman, after the chairman of the Committee, former Minister Veerman) delivered far-reaching recommendations (see Box 2) on how to maintain the Netherlands flood proof over the next cen- tury or even longer in the light of possible climatechange leading to accelerated sea level rise and increasing river discharges. The committee was not established in re- sponse to a flood disaster in contrast to all earlier State Committees which were only established after severe floods hit the country in 1916 and 1953. Without doubt there were triggers such as the debate in the Nether- lands on the delay in bringing safety up to the stand- ards as laid down in the Water Defence Law (1995), the flooding of New Orleans (2005) and the debate onclimatechange. The Committee’s work demonstrates the impor- tance of a wide ranging, long term preventive approach. The Committee’s recommendations are based on the necessity to upgrade the safety standards in the light of economic growth and group casualty risk meaning that the country has “more to lose”. The committee un- derpinned the basic premise introduced by the 1st Delta Committee (1953) that a risk approach is at the basis. The most important conclusion is that the protection of The Netherlands, with two thirds of its economic value and half of its population positioned below sea level, is fea- sible, both technically and economically, if planned in a long term and flexible manner. Such an approach could provide useful elements for other low lying areas.
Accordingly SHEAR shows a ridge of high values from south-west to eastern Germany. The product of CAPE and SHEAR has peak values in the Munich region. Our analysis also revealed that CIN was approaching zero, thus enabling convective initiation (Colby, 1984). So this and other studies like for the F4 tornado in Pforzheim on 10 July 1968 confirm that convective events can be diagnosed with ERA-40 reanalysis, despite their low spatial resolution.
Due to sea level rise, estuaries are particularly affected by climatechange. Besides sea level rise, changes in precipitation resulting in changing fresh water discharge and changes in storm activities can also have an impact on estuaries. The Elbe, Jade-Weser and Ems estuaries located in the German Bight (North Sea) are not only important ecosystems, they are also used as waterways. We need to know how climatechange affects the estuar- ies in order to develop adaptation strategies. Generally, it is difficult to project climatechangeimpactson a local scale. The uncertainties involved can become very large. In this paper we describe an approach to determining the impactsof local climatechangeand to the investigation of adaptation measures without getting lost in the large range of uncer- tainty. First, we identify the main drivers which are assumed to be altered by climatechange. In the next step we carry out sensitivity studies in which the main drivers are varied. For the sensitivity studies we use 3D-hydrodynamic numerical models. To test possible adaptation measures we repeat selected simulations which then include different adaptation measures. The results on local climatechangeimpacts suggest that today’s challenges are likely to become more acute. Higher salinities, increased upstream sedi- ment transport, and higher water levels during storm surge must be expected. Adaptation measures can reduce these effects.
All the measures that are considered for a mid or long term perspective will not prevent that seri- ous flood events will eventually take place on a (very) long time scale. These events are a statis- tical certainty. In the aftermath of such events ac- tion is then taken to repair, restore and often im- prove the situation to prevent that a similar event will happen again. Examples of this approach can be found in the Netherlands (the Delta works, af- ter the flooding of the South Western part in 1953, or the improvement of the levees along the river Meuse, after the floods of 1995) in Germany (after the floods of the Elbe in 2002) and in New Or- leans (after the hurricane Katrina in 2005). Apart from these event-driven actions, there are struc- tural measures that are carried out to maintain or improve safety standards without any preceding flooding events. Examples are the Room for the River program in the Netherlands, the New Vásárhély program in Hungary or the storm surge barriers in the Thames and in St. Petersburg. The analysis that is now proposed in the Netherlands by the Delta Committee however, may be labelled as a new approach. Not only are the current safety standards maintained or even improved, also an inventory of various actions is studied to prepare for upcoming situations on a long time scale, only to prevent hazardous situations on that long time scale. The (simple) idea is just not to wait for a (major) event, but take all the necessary precau- tions to prevent it from happening.
Potentially suitable indicators were either selected from existing indicator systems (e.g., the SEBI—Streamlining European Biodiversity Indicators initiative and the ClimateChange Indicators of the European Environment Agency), or were newly developed [ 21 ], resulting in a set of forty-four indicators which have been examined, in depth, for their feasibility at the German national level. Out of these, five indicators could be fully calculated (“realized” in Table 1 ) and nine indicators could be developed as “prototypes”; meaning that they could be fully developed on a conceptual level, but the necessary data for their calculation have not been available due to different reasons. Six out of these nine indicator prototypes are currently to be calculated and realized (“prototype in development” in Table 1 ). Thirty indicators, due to different reasons (see Section 4.2 and 5 and Reference [ 21 ]), could not be feasibly developed further. Indicator factsheets for all realized indicators and indicator prototypes describe the indicator and include all relevant information, such as suitability of the indicator, legal references and existing political targets, calculation algorithms, data sources, spatial and temporal resolution, as well as graphical and textual representations of the determined indicator values. All newly developed indicators have been included in the indicator set of the DAS [ 34 ] and one of them (phenological changes in wild plant species) has been added to the indicator set of the NBS [ 35 ].
In anticipation of rising sea levels, higher levels of water discharge, and more precipitation, the Netherlands has developed a National Spatial Strategy to ensure its waterways will be able to cope with increased river flows due to these climatechange effects. In this strategy, co-operation with local and regional authorities is heavily emphasised as well as the principle of “going with and anticipating the flow”. 12 Regional plans must now include the “water test”, which makes sure that spatial plans take water management into consideration from the outset. With respect to river water management, a main concern is flooding, prompted by the 1993 and 1995 floods. Although the main driver is public safety, potential increased risks due to climatechange are also considered. The Space for the Rivers policy programme is currently being redesigned to include the creation of extra space for rivers in order to adapt to higher levels of river discharge, thus lowering the chance for flooding. Furthermore, land surrounding major rivers is to be zoned in such a way as to reduce groundwater and surface water pollution. Flooding in coastal zones is also a major concern in the Netherlands. Restrictions on development near and inside dykes include an expansion ban within 100 metres inside the dykes and 175 meters outside the dykes, excluding wind turbines. 13 Furthermore, eight sites along coastal foundations have been designated high-priority for maintenance and improvements in order to strengthen these sea defences.
The model describes the economy as a steady state of annual monetary flows between agents and sectors, in which all markets are cleared (= general equilibrium). In order to quantify the impactsofclimatechangeon a macroeconomic level, this equilibrium is disrupted (e.g. by altered production conditions), which leads to quantity and price adjustments, until a new equilibrium is reached where all markets are cleared again. Then, the initial equilibrium is compared to the newly established equilibrium and the sectoral and macroeconomic effects of international climateimpacts become visible. As the underlying input-output structure implies that all sectors in all regions are interconnected either on the supply or demand side, direct effects in one sector or region may spill over to other sectors and other regions. While there are some studies that have already investigated certain climatechangeimpactson Germany’s foreign trade , this is the first study that analyses the consequences of global climatechange for Germany within a consistent macroeconomic framework. The results of the study provide an initial impression of how Germany’s foreign trade and thus its domestic economy could be affected by various climatic impacts by the middle of the century. Although the present study provides concrete figures about the impacts, any interpretation should focus on the effects and their interdependencies rather than on the absolute magnitude.
of sphericity indicated that all the variables included were relevant. Six factors which cumulatively explain about 65.21 percent of the total variance of the seventeen variables were identified. These factors have been retained according to Kaiser’s criterion.
From the factor analysis results, the following variables had the largest factor loading on the first factor: operated land, quantity of fertilizer bought (NPK and Urea), farm equipment value, available own funds, credit obtained, number of household members. Since these variables measure household resources status the factor is referred to as Resources Endowment. The second factor has more factor loadings from the variables assets value and livestock value, thus it is referred to here as Wealth. The third factor has more factor loading from household irrigation practice and from the access to water for irrigation; therefore it is referred to here as Irrigation development capacity. The fourth has the largest loadings from crop diversification and plant different varieties (of the same crop); we refer to it as on farm
The amount of data needed for GNSS correction is esti- mated on 180 bits per satellite, according to the number of bits in the RTCM message types 1004, 1012 and the header information . Additional information for the refererence station—message type 1006—and correction for the reference antenna—message type 1007—must be also transmitted to the vessel. Assuming that, todays, more than 15 satellites (GPS + GLONASS) are generally in line of sight, at least 3,000 b/s are to be transmitted, and the amount is likely to increase considering the deployment of new frequencies and constellations. Furthermore, a high update-rate is necessary to ensure that the positioning performance of the RTK al- gorithm does not get compromised . In addition to the GNSS corrections, waterway data like water level and Notice to Skippers information (eg., the status of inland waterway infrastructure, temporarily blockages ofwaterways sections, etc.) have to be broadcasted . To sum up, operative inland waterwaysnavigation applications are only possible when the following data transmission requirements are fulﬁlled:
While broadly consistent, the modeled decline in agricultural GDP during an extreme drought year is smaller than the observed decline in 1991/92 (i.e., 33 percent). One reason for this difference is the substantial change in the composition of agriculture that occurred between 1991 and 2006 (i.e., the base year for our analysis). Farmers in Zambia increased their production of drought-tolerant sorghum and millet and reduced maize production. This change in crop composition was due to the removal of unsustainable maize subsidies during the 1990s (see Thurlow and Wobst 2006). Moreover, non-traditional exports, including sugarcane and cotton, expanded dramatically, especially in the drought-affected zones 1, 2 and 4. These crops are more drought-resistant than traditional food crops and also benefit from irrigation. Given these changes, the agricultural sector as a whole has become more drought resistant over time, which is the main reason for the smaller GDP losses in our economic model.
agro-ecological zone (AEZ) level (i.e. a downscaling from the global 250 km x 250 km grid-boxes to a finer resolution of 10 km x 10 km grid-cell compatible with the AEZ identified by the MPAM) (Figure 5, Appendix B). Second, the results of the downscaling procedure in terms of projected change in temperatures and precipitation were used to infer impactson variables pertaining to crop growth such as evapotranspiration and water stress indicators. The study used for the determination ofclimateimpacts yield functions calibrated using the Crop Specific Soil Water Balance (CSSWB) model (Allen et al. 1998). Estimated impactson crop yields were provided for four time horizons, which include: current period (or baseline) covering the years 1979-2006, 2030 (2011-40), 2050 (2041-70), and 2080 (2071-99). For the purpose of the study, we used the projected yield data pertaining to the period 2050. The decision was based on the fact that most studies suggest impactsofclimatechange are likely to be exacerbated in the long run, but with increased uncertainty in terms of magnitude. Therefore, we chose the ‘2050’ period as a middle-road solution since it allows us to capture the long-term impacts, but with a reduced uncertainty as to the projected impacts. In what pertains to the scenarios identified for the analysis, we have identified eight scenarios as described in Table 7 (Appendix A). These scenarios are defined based on the climate-driven yield shocks to be introduced for selected crops, and refer to each SRES used in the analysis (A2 and B2), as well as the adaptation policies to be investigated in our analysis.
almost equal number in neighbouring states being indirectly dependent on the Lower Saxon coastal protection system. Furthermore, the cultural heritage of the lowlands like e.g. medieval churches or prehistoric stone graves would be lost forever. Comparing the cost saving aspects due to a total withdrawal from coastal protection with the implicit enormous economic and cultural losses, this alternative is regarded as highly unfavoura- ble. The effect of Retreat in respect of corresponding losses is sufficiently highlighted by the coastal flood prone areas as designated by the Lower Saxon Dyke Act. The impactsof future climatechange simply evaluated by adding anticipated higher sea levels of 0.5 m and 1.0 m above present design water level (Fig. 6).
South Africa is the largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa and a member of several regional and international development organizations including the African Union, the UN Security Council, the G20 and others (DFID 2011). As the highest regional emitter of carbon dioxide and ranked 11th globally, they are taking a leading role in reducing and mitigating climatechangeimpacts (DFID 2011). When compared to other Sub-Saharan African nations, South Africa has a highly developed infrastructure that is particularly vulnerable to potential changes in future climate. Still facing many challenges common to developing nations including further reduction of poverty, development of rural services, and continued economic growth, there are limited funds available to adequately address the threat climatechange poses to the existing infrastructure. The limitations on these available funds are challenging developing countries to identify the threats that are posed by climatechange, develop adaptation approaches to the predicted changes, incorporate changes into mid-range and long-term development plans, and secure funding for the proposed and necessary adaptations (UNFCCC 2009, 2010).
Im Rahmen des DAAD-Partnerschafts-Pro- gramms (“The Mediterranean Hot-Spot: Challenges and Answers in a Changing Env- ironmen”) zwischen der Justus-Liebig-Uni- versität Gießen (JLU) und der Aristoteles-Uni- versität Thessaloniki (AUTh) leitete Dr. Elena Xoplaki vom Institut für Geographie vom 9. bis 14. September 2019 die Sommerschule zum Thema “ClimateChangeImpactson the MED-Agro-Food Chain”. Ziel der Sommer- schule war es, die exzellente Forschung in den Bereichen Klimatologie, Ökologie, Land- schafts- und Ressourcenmanagement, Er- nährung, Soziologie, Agrarpolitik und Öko- nomie im Mittelmeerraum zusammenzufüh- ren. Sie diente als Plattform für die Bildung und den Wissenstransfer, der Interaktion zwischen den Disziplinen, Kommunikation und der engen Zusammenarbeit zwischen Studenten und renommierten Wissenschaft- lern der beiden Universitäten sowie externen internationalen Experten. 30 junge Wissen- schaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler mit un- terschiedlichem wissenschaftlichen Backg- round aus 12 Ländern und aus 4 Kontinenten hatten die Gelegenheit, durch interessante Keynote-Vorträge, Workshops, Exkursionen und einer Projektarbeit mit Spitzenforschern Kontakte zu knüpfen, ihr Wissen zu erwei- tern und ihre interdisziplinäre Denkweise weiterzuentwickeln.
Modeling climatechangeimpactson nitrogen stress for the Portuguese viticulture
Helder Fraga, Aureliano Malheiro, João A Santos
Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Vila Real, Portugal
In the context of policy which has speciﬁc targets in terms of temperature change at some point in the future, Manne and Richels (2001) proposed a measure that takes into account the fact that the impact of emissions of short-lived species depends sensitively on how close the target is. They used an integrated-assessment model which included a reduced-form description of the energy sector and economics, in addition to the physical components of the climate system. A metric which has a similar behaviour but has a purely physical science framework is the GTP ( Shine et al., 2007 ) which has also been used for example by Boucher and Reddy (2008) and has attracted wider interest ( IPCC, 2009 ). One difference however is that Manne and Richels (2001) account for the effects of emissions after the time at which stabilization occurs, although their model’s behaviour in this regime may be dictated more by assumptions about abatement costs than by physical aspects of the climate system. An attraction of the GTP is that it requires essen- tially the same inputs as the GWP but represents the response of the global-mean surface temperature. Hence it provides a different perspective on the relative importance of emissions of different species and how this changes over time. Additionally, because it considers temperature change, the GTP is further down the cause and effect chain from emissions to impactsand may, therefore, be a preferable metric even though, as noted in Section 2 , it is, therefore, subject to a greater uncertainty. Tol et al. (2008) show that under certain assumptions the GWP may be viewed as appropriate for a cost-beneﬁt framework, whereas the GTP may be viewed as appropriate for a cost-effective framework (see Section 4.1 ).
One of the common crop modelling applications is the estimation of potential productivity under different assumptions of biophysical constraints . We use the model (PROMET) (Processes of Mass and Energy Transfer [27,45]). PROMET is an agro-hydrological land surface process model, which contains a mechanistic, bio-physical, dynamic vegetation component to model crop growth and yield formation [46,47]. PROMET allows spatially distributed, raster-based simulations, which model net primary production, evapotranspiration, water balance and yield at different scales, from field to global, as a function of meteorological drivers as well as soil and terrain information. PROMET determines and considers water availability through soil moisture balance, radiation balance and the physiological regulation mechanisms of plant canopies [47,48]. The dynamic crop growth component uses parameters, which represent the sensitivity of the crops to environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, soil suction, nutrient supply) and which determine phenological development and crops reactions to related stresses. Management practices such as crop cultivar selection, sowing date, harvest date and fertilization levels are considered . PROMET is well parameterized and validated for (but not restricted to) the simulation of the two important Gambella cereal crops, maize and sorghum (see, e.g., Reference ). The required parameters for this paper were either derived from the literature  or determined through comparison with recorded yields in different parts of the globe. The spatial nature of PROMET also allows localizing the potential of cropland expansion through considering biophysical drivers at the local scale, such as climate, soil quality and topography. Simulation of potential yields outside the actual cropland allows determining where an expansion of cropland would potentially be most feasible under the given natural conditions.
Results of the calibration and validation of the flow rates for the basin outlet at gauge station Bisham Qila are shown in Figure 4 . One can notice that the SWA model is able not only to simulate most of the observed high and low flows at daily and monthly scales but also to capture the seasonal variation of the discharge as well. In fact, as listed in the figure and detailed in terms of the various performance statistical indicators (R 2 , NS coefficient, PBIAS and KGE) for all gauged stations at the tributaries outlets in Table 4 , the calibrated SWAT simulations result in high NS, ranging from 0.69 to up to 0.86 for the flows at the tributaries’ outlets and between 0.70 and 0.89 at other monitoring points despite the fact that the UIB is a complex watershed to model, particularly on the daily time scale, as it covers a very vast area with a huge glaciated part and diverse hydro-climatic regimes as well as very sparse observation data. Table 4 indicates furthermore that, similar to the calibration period, the statistical results are also very good for the validation period.
As mentioned above, Australia‟s per capita emissions are very high. The cause for the high per capita emissions is primarily due to the tremendous usage of coal in electricity generation and agricultural emissions from large numbers of sheep and cattle (Pink, 2010). Australia is one of the most important black coal providers in the world, with great economic resources, especially in New South Wales, with an oc- currence of 46 percent, and in Queensland with 38 percent. With six percent, Aus- tralia was ranked fourth in world‟s black coal production in 2009, after China with 47 percent, the USA with 17 percent and India with eight percent (Australian Gov- ernment, 2011a). The total production of raw black coal in Australia in 2008-09 was 438 million tons. During this time, after processing, 334 million tons of black coal were available for domestic use and for export, in which NSW and Queensland re- mained the main producing states with around 97 percent of Australia‟s saleable output of black coal and 100 percent of its black coal exports (Australian Coal As- sociation, 2008a). Burning coal damages the environment. Greenhouse gases from the combustion of coal globally contribute by around 25 percent to the greenhouse effect. In Australia, 90 percent of greenhouse gas emissions arise from power gen- eration as a consequence of burning coal (Australian Coal Association, 2008b). In Figure 1 the trend in Australia‟s national greenhouse gas inventory by sectors between 1990 and 2008 are highlighted. As one may derive, since 1990, Australia‟s national greenhouse gas emissions expressed in CO 2 -e increased by about 31.3 percent from 418.4 million tons (Mt) CO 2 -e to 549.5 Mt CO 2 -e in 2008 (exclu- sive LULUF 8 ). The energy sector was the largest source of emissions with 75.8 percent of the national inventory total in 2008 followed by the agriculture sec- tor with 15.9 percent. In Figure 2 one can see the shifts in greenhouse gas emis- sions since 1990. The largest increase in emissions occurred in the stationary energy sector since 1990 with an increase of 52.1 percent until 2008. Between 1990 and 2008 the industrial process sector increased as well, by a considerable amount of 27.7 percent. The agriculture sector showed a slightly increase of