Climate-sensitive health problems kill millions every year and undermine the physical and psychological well-being of millions more. To identify the climateimpactsondenguerisk in Brazil, a comparative case study is used based on the synthetic controls approach. The South and Northeast regions ofBrazil are compared to the rest of the country in order to identify those impacts. The results suggest that dengue is more prevalent in warmer regions, but the humidity conditions and amount of rainfall seem fundamental for increase of the disease’s prevalence in temperate climate regions or drier tropical regions of the country. On the other hand, the increase in rainfall in the rainiest tropical areas could diminish the disease’s prevalence, as standing water accumulations might be washed away. Therefore, due to expected climate changes in the future, the dengue fever distribution in the country might change, with the disease migrating from the north to the south. Public policy’s role in minimizing these effects in the country should be focused on anticipating the proper climate conditions for dengue incidence by using integrated actions among local authorities.
The reasons for differences in the relevance and threat of specific risk drivers for each company are manifold. Climatechange related impactson companies are determined by the company‘s business, its location, its focus groups as well as its entire value-added chain characteristics (CDP 2015; UN Global Compact 2015; Linnenluecke et al. 2013; Agrawala et al. 2011). Climatechange consequences can vary from an increase in the company’s operational cost or a decrease in demand to the destruction of production facilities and the inability to do business (IPCC 2014; Linnenluecke et al. 2013; Linnenluecke and Griffith 2010; Aragon-Correa and Sharma 2003). Hence, companies exhibit specific vulnerabilities and capacities which determine the necessity of adaptation activities. Furthermore, various organizational capabilities are required to deal with disruptions due to the natural environment – like climate knowledge absorption, climate-related operational flexibility, and strategic climate integration (Linnenluecke and Griffith 2012; Busch 2011). And sometimes even
• Investigating farmer costs associated with adapting to climatechange. Better information is needed to help both growers and the regulatory agencies assess the relative costs and benefits of various adaptation options;
• Working with local agribusinesses, to test the UKICIP “climate adaptation: risk, uncertainty and decision-making framework” tool. This could help farmers, the regulatory authority and stakeholders assess the local risks posed by climatechange, and work out how best to respond. The tool has been used in other vulnerable sectors to judge the significance of the climatechangerisk, compared to other risks, so that the appropriate adaptation measures can be implemented. It would involve undertaking case study farm assessments, comparing the different adaptation options and their financial and environmental impacts. It would also provide information to help avoid mal-adaptations that might be unbeneficial at the catchment level (in terms of water resources management) or at individual farm level (such as investments in additional water storage);
The major objectives ofdengue surveillance are the rapid detection of epidemics, which allows prompt and adequate responses. This includes the assessment of the disease burden with its social and economic impacts, the monitoring ofdengue distribution and dispersion over time, the assessment of environmental risk factors and the evaluation of the effects ofdengue control measures. The prediction ofdengue outbreaks is another aim that must be pursued by surveillance services (Beatty et al., 2010). Finally, the activities might provide support for decision-makers to define resource allocation (World Health Organization, 2012a). In order to guarantee effective surveillance, the data collected must be of high quality, having precision and completeness. Therefore, the evaluation of the notification system is necessary on a periodic basis. The surveillance system should be a component of the national health information system, permitting monitoring of health indicators at different levels of the health administration, such as the progression of the morbidity and mortality in face of the health decisions taken (World Health Organization, 2012a). The reporting ofdengue must be required in all health facilities, including the private sector and different levels of health care. During outbreaks, reporting of a suspected dengue case to the surveillance services should ideally occur within 48 hours. In the peak of transmission, at least a weekly report of aggregated information is necessary for dengue monitoring (Beatty et al., 2010).
concentration of activity in these spaces and also reinforce social inequalities, increasing poverty. The reduction of well-being in rural areas may generate pressure on urban clusters, although there may be sectors and regions that benefit from the process. The biggest losses will probably take place in the interior areas of the country. The impactsofclimatechangeon urban infrastructure require further studies. The areas most vulnerable to climatechange in Brazil are the Amazon and the Northeast, which are exactly the poorest regions. In the Amazon, gradual warming may reach 7-8°C by 2100 in scenario A2-BR, meaning a radical change in the Amazon Forest – so called ‘savannisation’. One of the key questions to be answered by scientists is: What are possible tipping points after which the savannisation process of the Amazon would be irreversible? Without a doubt this is one of the most relevant and complex issues related to climatechange in Brazil and research is still in its initial stages. In the case of the Northeast, rainfall levels tend to decrease during the 21st Century, at a rate of 2-2.5 mm/day. This will lead to agricultural losses in all states of the region and its
Extreme weather events from severe convective storms (straight-line winds and tornadoes, hail, heavy precipitation and lightning strikes) pose a threat to life and safety of European citizens and lead to significant property damage each year. For Germany, the Munich Reinsurance Group estimates a total damage of 1 to 2 billion EUR per year. For Europe as a whole, thunderstorms are likely to cause 5 to 8 billion EUR annual total damage. A field of particular concern, and also at the cutting edge of science, is the estimation of regionalised severe convective storm risk in a changing climate with time horizon 2030.
According to the results obtained, the impending changes in global climate will have both positive and negative impacts. While an increment in annual average temperatures will increase mean output and decrease production risk, an increase in temperature variability will reduce mean output and cause a higher level of production risk. The corresponding measures of precipitation however have no significant impact on mean output and production risk. Finally, a 1°C increase in annual average temperature is, ceteris paribus, likely to increase national mean output by 1.47 million tons.
2. Direct Effects: Methodology and Results
In this study, we first analyze how the production of different cultures is affected by climate variables by using a profit function approach (Lau, 1978; Jehle and Reny, 2000; Mas-Colell et al, 2006). This approach allows the measurement of crop production variation (direct effects), which will be used as the physical measure of output change. It is assumed that farmers allocate inputs (i.e., land, labor, fertilizers, and energy) for the production of temporary crops and permanent crops. Allocation decision is based on a profit maximization problem in competitive markets. Climate variables are considered as exogenously fixed inputs to the profit function. Information on both long-term climate (seasonal pattern) and short-term climate variability (specific anomaly in the year) is introduced. Moreover, other fixed factors, such as soil type, investments, and farmer education are also considered. Appendix A provides more details on the approach.
On the other hand, on a smaller scale, livelihoods that depend on fisheries will suffer the most in poorer regions, resulting in reduced production opportunities, damages to productive assets, and decreased ability to planning livelihood activities (Daw et al. 2009). According to Badjeck et al. (2010: 375), about 90% of fishers depend on small- scale fisheries around the world. In Mexico, for example, artisanal fishers would not cope with changing distribution of certain species due to their lack of capital-intensive fishing methods (Guzman-Amaya et al. 2010). Thus, migration from coastal zones would be expected, rather than adaptation strategies (Guzman-Amaya et al. 2010). As argued by Rice and Garcia (2011), aquaculture is seen as an alternate source of protein. However, large aquaculture yields are often obtained by over-fishing wild stocks which serve as food of cultivated species (Naylor et al. 2001), and a number of aquaculture facilities in Mexico will be at risk due to increasing sea level (Guzman- Amaya et al. 2010). Therefore, the role of aquaculture as an option for food security remains ambiguous.
Despite the varying projections regarding the future development of precipitation patterns in Germany, most studies point towards decreases in summer and increases in winter precipitation (KLIWA, 2005, 2005; Middelkoop et al., 2001; Shabalova et al., 2003; UBA and MPI, 2006). This could result in a higher riskof winter or early spring flooding, especially in the south-western parts of the country where these changes are expected to occur particularly pronounced. For the Rhine Basin, the ATEAM study has consequently pointed towards a shift of maximum monthly discharge from Mai and June in the 1990s (gauge at Kaub) to March in the 2050s (Zebisch et al., 2005), and the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin concluded that the frequency and magnitude of peak discharges was to increase in winter (CHR, 1997). However, due to the different geographical conditions prevailing in the Rhine Basin, it remains difficult to determine a specific season that will show a higher occurrence of flooding in the future. Also, because the spatial and temporal precipitation patterns of each of the Rhine’s tributaries strongly influence individual flooding events (Disse and Engel, 2001). To assess the impactsofclimatechangeon flooding characteristics in several subbasins of the Rhine, Menzel et al. (2006) have used the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 model under the IS95a scenario. Results of the former model showed that in the Lahn, Main, Mosel and Neckar a clear increase in mean flood discharge for the years 2061-2090 could occur. Projections by the HadCM3 model, however, stayed within the limits of natural variability for most subbasins, highlighting that the uncertainty about future flood discharge in the Rhine remains quite high.
The State Committee (also known as the 2nd Delta Com- mittee, after the 1st Delta Committee established after the 1953 flooding or Committee Veerman, after the chairman of the Committee, former Minister Veerman) delivered far-reaching recommendations (see Box 2) on how to maintain the Netherlands flood proof over the next cen- tury or even longer in the light of possible climatechange leading to accelerated sea level rise and increasing river discharges. The committee was not established in re- sponse to a flood disaster in contrast to all earlier State Committees which were only established after severe floods hit the country in 1916 and 1953. Without doubt there were triggers such as the debate in the Nether- lands on the delay in bringing safety up to the stand- ards as laid down in the Water Defence Law (1995), the flooding of New Orleans (2005) and the debate onclimatechange. The Committee’s work demonstrates the impor- tance of a wide ranging, long term preventive approach. The Committee’s recommendations are based on the necessity to upgrade the safety standards in the light of economic growth and group casualty risk meaning that the country has “more to lose”. The committee un- derpinned the basic premise introduced by the 1st Delta Committee (1953) that a risk approach is at the basis. The most important conclusion is that the protection of The Netherlands, with two thirds of its economic value and half of its population positioned below sea level, is fea- sible, both technically and economically, if planned in a long term and flexible manner. Such an approach could provide useful elements for other low lying areas.
Garcia and Rosenberg (2010) indicate that fisheries contribute to food security in either direct or indirect ways. In Mexico, sardines are consumed directly by domestic consumers, and indirectly as fishmeal for livestock. Sardines are, in fact, part of the basic basket, which is a standard measure employed by the government to measure the purchasing power among poor people. The recent trends of increasing prices and demand for fishmeal (and other fish products) around the globe once again raise the question of diverting protein to export markets (Delgado et al. 2003). Still, no direct links between sardine consumption among poor people and future trends of fishmeal exports have been investigated in Mexico. Export earnings, nevertheless, can help to alleviate food insecurity, provided that the local market and institutional mechanisms allow regional economic development (Allison 2011; McClanahan et al. 2013). For example, while shrimp in Mexico is mostly an export commodity, it indirectly contributes to domestic food security since money is earned in order to buy food. If shrimp production eventually decreases, fishers will target other species in order to compensate for their monetary losses. Because shrimp is a high-value fishery, a major riskof overexploitation of other fish stocks might lead to food security concerns in the mid and long term.
A follow up to this paper is a case study on Copenhagen. Hallegatte et al. (2008b) assesses the sea level rise and storm surge risk in the port city of Copenhagen. The study is based on a statistical analysis of past storm surges along with a geographical information analysis of population and asset exposure. Also, an assessment of the indirect losses is used along with a close study of the storm damages. The authors conclude that Copenhagen is well protected against any surge in storms or in sea level using an adaptive regional input output model (ARIO). ARIO measures the value added changes in specific sectors of the economy in order to measure the indirect losses. The ARIO model was first developed by Hallegatte (2008) to assess the economic cost of hurricane Katrina on the city of New Orleans. Besides that, Hallegatte et al. (2008b) also calculate the total insured value of the exposed assets (commercial, residential, industrial) in order to measure the direct losses. The following table exhibits the total flood losses for different mean levels. Figure 5
The agricultural sector still playing a central role in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries’ economic development. It supports the welfare of most of the residents directly or indirectly. However, recent agricultural performance trends of the region are discouraging. Indeed, the agricultural productivity growth in SSA region has been lower compared to the rest of the world (Willy and Holm-Müller, 2013) and some authors have suggested that the region is falling further away from the agricultural productivity frontier, thus contradicting the convergence hypothesis (Wurlod and Eaton, 2015). This situation may, among other things, be a signal of low land productivity in agriculture. The latter can be partly attributed to the low investment in agricultural sector, high rates of land fragmentation, intensive tillage of land, nutrient mining and extraction of crop residues to feed livestock, and climate variability and change (e.g., high average temperature, scarce and erratic rainfall) which characterized agricultural activities of the region (Di Falco et al, 2011; Willy and Holm-Müller, 2013, OCDE, 2015). Climatechange and variability are major challenges to SSA agriculture today because they not only increase production costs and the riskof crop failure, but also put at risk the stability of the whole agricultural production chain (Wheeler and von Braun, 2013). Scientific evidence onclimatechange suggests that even with a strong mitigation policy the observed lower and stagnant agricultural performance of the SSA region will persist or even get worse if the sector does not find ways to adapt to climatechange (IPCC, 2007) under a business-as- usual scenario for agricultural sector.
Some aspects of the guardrail approach already appear in the ‘backcasting’ method for energy policy analysis (Robinson, 1982). In a backcasting analysis, future goals and objectives (for energy policy) are first defined in an explicitly normative way. The analysis works then backwards from this future end-point to the present in order to determine the physical feasibility of that future and the policy mea- sures that would be required to reach it. In the systematic suggested by Morgan and Henrion (1990, Chapter 3), the guardrail approach is a satisficing method. Since the guardrail approach applies a hybrid decision criterion that includes rights-based and utility-based decision criteria, it may be characterized as a ‘bounded-risk bounded-cost’ strategy. Yet in contrast to the decision-analytical frameworks dis- cussed in Morgan and Henrion (1990), the guardrail approach aims at characterizing the complete set of acceptable policy strategy rather than just determining a single acceptable policy path. The guardrail approach may be considered as a dynamical generalization of the ‘critical loads’ concept, which proved very successful in the negotiation process of the Second Sulphur Protocol (Batterman, 1990; Alcamo et al., 1990; Hettelingh et al., 1995). In this tradition, Swart and Vellinga (1994) called for “a new ap- proach to climatechange research” that starts with defining “critical levels” of ecosystem response on a regional level, and to work backwards to determine “ultimate objective levels of GHG concentration changes”. However, the proposed approach was not implemented in any IAM. The guardrail approach enables the implementation of the ‘pessimization paradigm’ and more complex paradigms for sustain- able development (Schellnhuber and Wenzel, 1998; Schellnhuber, 1999). However, a detailed discussion of that topic is beyond the scope of this thesis. From an economic perspective, the guardrail approach borrows features from multi-criteria analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and scenario analysis (cf. Bruckner et al., 2003b), which are combined with elements of the ‘bounded rationality’ concept (Simon, 1972).
4 2. Literature Review
The theoretical framework of this study is based on the economic models of the family, which generates the approach of multivariate heath outcome functions as advocated by Becker and Lewis (1973). Grossman and Joyce (1988), Rosenzweig and Schultz (1982) and Corman and Grossman (1985) extended this model to identify the theoretical and empirical determinants of birth outcomes. The baseline idea behind the proposed procedure is that the parent’s utility function depends on consumption, number of births and baby survival probability, which are endogenous variables except for consumption. The survival probability depends on the quality of medical care, nutrition and environmental issues during pregnancy. The health production function, in turn, depends on the efficiency of the mother in producing health, normally understood by the literature as the mother’s ability or the role of her education (Behrman and Wolfe, 1987a, 1987b and 1989).
10. One significant example is the fact that the last IPCC report, the most comprehensive literature review on the subject, has few references to family farming in either its reports on vulnerability and adaptation (Working Group II) or mitigation (Working Group III).
11. The crops detailed in this report were selected from the main list considered by the funds supporting family farming (e.g. Seguro da Agricultura Familiar (SEAF); 50 crops ZARC/MAPA): pineapple, acaí berry, cotton, plums, peanuts, rice, oats, bananas, cocoa, coffee (arabica and robusta), cashew nuts, sugarcane, canola, barley, citrus (orange, lemon, lime, tangerine and grapefruit), coconut, palm, eucalyptus, beans (first, second and third harvest), cowpea bean, sesame, sunflower, guava, apple, papaya, castor (mamona), manioc or cassava, mango, passion fruit, watermelon, millet, corn, corn/Brachiaria, nectarine, cactus (palma forrageira), pear, peach, pepper, pine, peach palm (pupunha), rubber, sisal, soybeans, sorghum, wheat and grape (American and European).
achievement reports in line with Art. 7.10 PA and submit them to the UN in so-called adaptation communications (Schwarze 2017). This in turn necessitates a transition to a collaborative EU adaptation policy, which would include joint strategies to reduce the negative transnational effects ofclimatechange for the community. Brussels’ abstention on these matters up to now will come to an end after 2020 with an obligation to develop a uniform reporting system for climate resilience. A coordinated effort must be made by the member states to implement the UN’s Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (Foreign Office 2015). In this respect, the Paris Agreement and the Sendai Framework strengthen each other in the implementation of a strategy to avoid transnational effects. The impactsofclimatechangeon international value chains will also be addressed in other international political contexts. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) explicitly calls for a climate-friendly and resilient restructuring of economic systems in industrialised and
The main goal of the trading scheme is to reduce Australia‟s carbon pollution, while creating long-term economic success in a low carbon economy. The scheme should correct the major market failure related with climatechange (Gar- naut, 2008). It is an opportunity to limit greenhouse gas pollution, while giving par- ticipants incentives to reduce their emissions (Australian Government, 2008b). The scheme will put a price on carbon by setting a cap on the amount of carbon pollu- tion that industries can emit; emission rights become scarce which entails a price. Included businesses and industries will need a pollution permit for each ton of car- bon they emit, which will give strong incentives to reduce pollution. Companies with high abatement costs will buy permits, either at auctions or at a secondary trading market. Companies with low abatement costs will undertake abatement efforts in- stead of buying permits. The CPRS will mainly focus on the biggest polluters in Australia. Around 1,000 companies will be included, other uncovered businesses will not have obligations given by the scheme. These biggest polluters are respon- sible for more than 25,000 tons of carbonized pollution each year. The income of the pollution permits will be used to help businesses to adjust to the scheme and to support low-carbon and energy efficient technologies. Australia committed to a five to 15 or even 25 percent medium-term reduction target below 2000 level by 2020, depending on the efforts of other high emitting countries, and to a 60 percent re- duction long-term target by 2050. These goals should be reached in a cost effective way (Australian Government, 2008a; Australian Government, 2008c). The emission cap, within the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, will be consistent with the
3.0 and 5.5 t ha -1 .
For each combination of GCM and emission scenario, 100 years synthetic weather data generated using the LARS-WG were used in CERES-Rice to simulate future yield (Figure 7). For all three GCMs an increase in yield is predicted for both rain-fed and irrigated production. Under a low (B1) emissions scenario, rainfed yield is projected to increase by +8% with a range of +4 to +11% whilst irrigated yields are projected to increase by +9% with an inter-annual variation of between +6% and +11%. However, under ‘very unlikely’ climate conditions, yields could be reduced by between -7% and -2% (Figure 7). Similarly, under the high (A2) emission scenario, rainfed yields are predicted to increase by +5% (± 4%) and +4% (± 3%) for irrigated rice. Rice yields in this part of Malawi could therefore drop by between -6% to -10% compared to the baseline but with a low level of probability. These yield projections are consistent with Lobell et al. (2008) who used statistical crop models and climate projections from 20 GCMs to analyse climate risks in 12 food-insecure regions. Lobell et al. (2008) reported that an increase of +4 to +5% rice yield in South Africa and East Africa due to climatechange by the 2030s was possible. However, a recent systematic review by Knox et al. (2012) reported that the scientific evidence for climateimpactson rice yield in Africa was inconclusive, since only a very limited number of observations (n=5) exist, which were insufficient to conduct any detailed meta- analysis.