46 studies for all of the typhoon parameters (typhoon frequency, tracks, intensity) related to climatechange (Knutson et al., 2010). The mean sealevelriseand the sea surface temperature (SST) rise are the two main factors related to climatechange. Knutson et al. concluded that global mean tropical cyclone frequency would likely either decrease or remain essentially unchanged due to greenhouse warming based on existing modelling studies and limited existing observations (Knutson et al., 2010). However, the theoretical basis for relationships between climateand tropical cyclone intensity is well established (Walsh et al., 2016). Climatechange is expected to affect tropical cyclones by increasing sea surface temperatures (SST) globally, a key factor that influences cyclone formation and behavior. The empirical relationship between the SST and typhoon intensity was used to calculate the changeof typhoon wind fields in 2100 due to climatechange, the results showed the typhoon intensity has a strong correlation with higher sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific (Kerry Emanuel, 1987, 2005, 2008). In addition, climate models continue to predict future increases in the intensities of the strongest storms (Walsh et al., 2016). Based on theories of potential intensity (Emanuel, 1987; Holland, 1997) and studies on higher resolution modeling, global maximum wind speed could increase by 2% to 20% over the 21st century (Knutson et al., 2010; Emanuel, 1987; Holland, 1997). According to IPCC report in 2007 and 2014, the SST will increase by 2.0℃ to of 4.0℃ at the end of 21 century (IPCC, 2007; IPCC, 2014). The maximum cyclone wind speed would be increased by 10% and 20% under an increase in SST by 2.0℃ and 4.0℃, respectively (Emanuel, 1987).
Global sealevelrise (SLR) variations have undeniably begun to make an impacton highly vulnerable economies. These impacts of SLR are a key component of the projected economic damage ofclimatechange, an important input to climatechange policies and adaptive measures. This paper considers SLR projections and its impacton the economy and includes a consolidation of various related studies. Estimated global gross domestic product (GDP) loss by 2100 ranges from 0.3% to as high as of 9.3% (Hinkel et al. 2014; Pycroft, Abrell, and Ciscar 2015). Climatechangeimpact should be addressed at the global level through a locally focused effort where education and acceptance by all stakeholders are crucial and warranted. Further, this paper tackles several adaptive strategies as a response to SLR which include retreat, accommodation, and protection. The retreat strategy simulates that SLR causes the loss of inundated land and incurs planned relocation (migration) costs above a certain sealevel. The accommodation strategy allows usage of vulnerable areas or land and limits damage by flood- proofing or raising structures. Finally, the protection strategy projects that land will be protected from SLR damage by sea walls or other barriers of a certain height. On the other hand, Diaz (2016) estimates a median adaptation cost from migration at 16% of GDP under the least-cost strategy by 2050. In general, the education ofand the acceptance by the concerned local community will be crucial in the successful implementation of SLR adaptation strategies, notwithstanding parallel mitigation efforts on a global scale.
In order to develop a strategy for adaptation to climatechange for the German estuaries it is important to understand today’s situation and to analyse what developments climatechange will bring about in the future. The impactofclimatechangeonstormsurges in the German estuaries of the Elbe, Jade-Weser and Ems is investigated using a sensitivity study. The study analyses the influence ofsealevelrise at the mouth of the estuary, wind over the estuary and fresh water discharge. Hydrodynamic numerical models of the Elbe, Jade-Weser and Ems estuaries can be used to investigate the impactof each process sepa- rately. Wind, fresh water discharge andsealevelrise are varied systematically in line with today’s knowledge of expected changes in future climates. The three estuaries examined show the same response to the scenarios investigated. The results of the study are summed up in Tab. 2.
The effect ofsealevelrise is an equally important effect ofclimatechangeon the potential damage that may result from cyclones. Higher sealevel provides stormsurges with a higher ‘launch point’ for the surge, which may increase both the real extent and the depth of the surge in areas already vulnerable to coastal storms. In addition, future sealevelrise, while uncertain, is a more reliably forecast to 2050 than future storm activity. In general, the increase in sealevel would make existing storms significantly more damaging, even for minimal changes in storm activity. This analysis focuses on the more reliably forecast marginal effect of SLR on the extent and effective return period of these already damaging storms. Using a simulated dataset for storms andsurges along with three alternative forecasts for future SLR in Vietnam, we estimate the effect ofclimatechange induced SLR on surge risk due to cyclones. The overall method involves four steps:
tury, it is necessary to know the temporal development of mean (tidal) levels because the sealevel data are referred to mean water level (MW) in the Baltic Sea, and mean high water (MHW) or mean sealevel (MSL) in the North Sea. Since not only the impacts of glaciation but also of coastal movements (tectonics) have to be taken into account, an exact assessment of the temporal development of the mean sealevel is hardly possible. Detailed data on water level developments at the North and Baltic Sea coasts are available from about 1850. Since the end of the last glacial period, both the Baltic Seaand North Sea coasts have been shaped by melting ice masses; the maximum of the Weichselian glaciation has been dated at 25,000 to 18,000 years B.P. After a rapid initial sealevelrise, the rate of increase slowed down about 5,000 years B.C. and has been as low as a few decimetres during the last thousand years. Apart from eustatic processes, which affect the world-wide water regime, also movements of the Earth’s crust and load reductions due to melting inland ice masses have an impacton relative movements between land andsea levels in the Baltic region. It may be assumed that 4,000 years ago the water levelof the south-western Baltic Sea was about 1 m below the current mean level. Around the time of Christ’s Birth, it was about 50 cm higher than in the Middle Ages, likewise in the North Sea coastal area (J ENSEN and T ÖPPE , 1990).
ABSTRACT: As climate will change in this century and beyond, the German Ministry of Transport (BMVI) is interested in the effect ofclimatechangeon the waterways in the German North Sea estuaries and therefore initiated the project KLIWAS (www.kliwas.de). In order to find a strategy for adaptation to climatechange it is important to understand today’s situation and analyse the future situation under the influence ofclimatechange. This concept will be presented by looking into stormsurges in the German Bight. A sensitivity study is used to identify areas along the estuaries of Elbe, Jade-Weser and Ems, which are vulnerable in case ofstormsurgesandclimatechange. In a second step the efficacy of several adaptation measures is investigated. Advantages and disadvantages of the adaptation measures can be identified. The results give the chance to develop an adaptation route for the waterways in the estuaries of Elbe, Jade-Weser and Ems in order to mitigate the problems caused by climatechange.
Sealevel variations in the Western Baltic are caused by different forces. The most important one is the wind induced setup during periods of strong storms. Typically easterly to northeasterly winds rise the wa- ter level, southwesterly to westerly winds induce a lowering of the water level. During a sudden changeof the wind direction the Baltic Sea generates standing basin waves (seiches). These seiches can intensify the effect of wind setup. The typical period of such variations is 27 or 36 hours. Further sources of varia- bility are the semidiurnal tides with about 0.2 meters of amplitude local wind setup and fjord seiches with a few centimeters of range.
Decisions by tourists are not only affected by external factors. Their motivation to travel depends on personal preference and to some degree cultural influence. Chapter 6 features a statistical regression analysis on the behaviour of Chinese tourists from different countries 6 andof the number of international and domestic tourists at the provincial level in China. The variables used range from climate, transportation facilities and the number as well as classification of sightseeing spots. The results yield tourists’ preferences when travelling in China. Additionally, the preferences of Chinese tourists for the domestic tourism market are compared with foreign travellers’ preferences; and they prove to be different. It is therefore wrong to assume that the Chinese behave like other tourists, even their ethnic kin. Cultural influence is tightly connected to other, expecially social and political, influences. In comparisons of preferences between Chinese domestic tourists and foreign tourists in China, significant differences were detected. Generally, Chinese tourists shun cities, love nature, seek
terminants such as coastal geography, population and income density, and land value. Additionally, CIAM accounts for the impacts ofstorm surge, wetland loss, and relative SLR, three factors which have been omitted in previous estimates.
The CIAM application presented in this paper illustrates the large potential for coastal adapta- tion to reduce the worst expected impacts of SLR on coastal resources, reducing global net present costs substantially by a factor of 10 to less than $1.5 trillion over the next two centuries. Study results (Figures 4 and 6) show that the choice of adaptation is far more important than the ulti- mate magnitude of the SLR threat in determining the overall cost of coastal impacts. Moreover, the optimal adaptation strategies at the segment level tend to be insensitive to the SLR scenario. These findings support proactive coastal planning and also suggest that adaptation policy need not be entangled in climate discussions – mitigation and adaptation can proceed independently.
Globally, the single-most observable, predictable, and certain impactofclimatechange is sealevelrise. Using a case study from the Kapiti Coast District in New Zealand, we pose a simple question: Do people factor in the warnings provided by scientists and governments about the risk ofsea-levelrise when making their investment decisions? We examine the single most important financial decision that most people make – purchasing a home, to see whether prices of coastal property change when more/less information becomes available about property- specific consequences of future sealevelrise. The Kapiti Coast District Council published detailed projected erosion risk maps for the district’s coastline in 2012 and was forced to remove them by the courts in 2014. About 1,800 properties were affected. We estimate the impactof this information on home prices using data from all real estate transactions in the district with a difference-in-differences framework embedded in a hedonic pricing model. We find that the posting of this information had a very small and statistically insignificant impacton house prices, suggesting people do not care much about the long-term risks ofsea-levelrise as they do not incorporate these risks in their investment decisions.
Abstract: Climatechange is a natural phenomenon which accelerates due to human activities. This would result in altering the natural processes on the Earth. The climatechange impacts on the sea environment have adverse effects on the coastal infrastructures. There will be large variation in temperature, humidity, water density, wave and current parameters due to sealevelriseand, which all together affect the structures. It accelerates the rate of deterioration of the structure in the form of corrosion, sulphate attack, erosion and scouring at the foundation due to waves, current, etc. In this paper, a berthing structure in a port located along the west coast of India is considered for the study. The berthing structure was severely damaged due to the exposure to the aggressive sea environment. Visual inspection and non-destructive tests like UPV, Half-cell potential, powder sampling, core sampling were conducted to assess the damage occurred to the structure and retrofitting methodology is proposed in order to prolong the life of the structure.
The stormof August 8 th , 2015 was characterized by the occurrence of several meteo-oceanographic effects that caused the destruction of the coastal infrastructure. Waves of8 m and strong winds of up to 110 km/h were observed. In addition, an atmospheric pressure of 991 HPa increased the sealevel, thus waves broke closer to the coastline (Winckler et al., 2015). The observed structural damage revealed the vulnerability of the coastal sites built on low ground due to the lack of understanding of the nature of this dynamic environment. This event generated a retreat of the coastline of 10-20 meters and erosion of 2.8-4.5 meters on the beaches along the Bay of Valparaíso. In addition, economic losses were estimated in more than USD $7.2 million. Particularly, Yolanda beach had a coastline retreat of 11.4 meters, a maximum erosion of 3.9 meters and a sediment loss of 35.000 m 3 (Winckler et al., 2017). Therefore, there is a need for mitigation measures such as the use of breakwaters.
Vietnam is among the countries that are assumed to be highly affected by the impacts ofclimatechange through sealevelrise; increased temperature and changes in precipitation resulting in changes in crop water requirements and yields; and changes in river flow with impacts on hydropower and the ability to meeting water requirements for municipal, industrial and agricultural uses. Fifty-six climatechange scenarios for Vietnam were selected that span a range of wet to dry future climates for Vietnam. A set of biophysical models were employed to project the impacts on water supply, water demand and hydropower generation out to the year 2050. These climate scenarios show a drying trend in the north with an increase of precipitation in the central and southern regions. Model results suggest that dry season runoff will generally be reduced and that wet season peak runoff will be increased compared to current conditions with mean …/ Keywords: climatechange, water systems, agriculture, hydropower, Vietnam
The concern about SLR for these regions is the potential for SLR to affect economies and populations in dramatic ways. Industries that operate in low-lying coastal areas, including tourism, settlement, shipping, commercial and recreational fishing, and agriculture face pressures and consequences from SLR (Neumann et al. 2000). Additionally, road infrastructure is an important component when considering the impacts of SLR. Because infrastructure investment represents an important aspect of national budgets and economic development, and the life cycle of many roads is 20 years or greater, it is important to consider climatechange for current and future plans. For low-lying coastal areas, specifically those in developing countries, making decisions about infrastructure with a forward-looking perspective is a key to mitigating potentially costly impacts from SLR.
For each estuary we apply an individually calibrated model. Figure 1 shows the model domains. The horizontal resolutions of the unstructured grids vary from a few metres to several hundreds of metres. At the seaward boundary we force the models with water levels and salinities extracted from a simulation with a North Sea model. The North Sea model is forced at the open boundary towards the North Atlantic by water levels composed of partial tides and constant salinities varying between 33 and 35 PSU along the boundary. For the period of simulation time we choose a period in summer 2006 which is character- ised by low wind velocities and rather low fresh water discharges. We apply observed values for the freshwater discharge entering the estuaries at the weirs. In the Elbe estuary fresh water discharge varies between 250 m³/s and 460 m³/s, in the Weser estuary it ranges from 126 m³/s to 159 m³/s, and in the Ems estuary freshwater discharge lies between 25 m³/s and 50 m³/s in the period analysed. The length of the simulations is at least two spring neap cycles. For the analyses only the last spring neap cycle simulated (20 July 2006 till 3 August 2006) is used. Compared with climate simulations, which usually simulate several decades, our simulation time periods are rather short. These short simulation time periods are pos- sible, because the modelled processes respond rapidly to changes of external drivers.
For instance, CGE models have been also used to evaluate ex post the economic impactof a particular extreme event. Farinosi et al. (2012) combine a detailed spatial analysis of flood exposure and vulnerability with a CGE model for Italy. GIS techniques are used to estimate the direct costs of floods which are also the input to the CGE model that computes the indirect or general equilibrium costs. This specific study considers land loss for agriculture, capital loss in industry, commercial, residential services and infrastructure damages, and labor productivity loss due to suspension from work. Sue Wing et al. (2013) use a regional CGE model and scenarios for the ARkstorm model (Porter et al. 2010) to study flood effects in California. That study introduces impacts as changes in total factor productivity (loss in agricultural output rather than in land) and accounts for the lifeline losses by imposing an adverse neutral productivity shock on the Armington supplies of utility services in each county. An interesting result is that as long as markets can adjust immediately and completely with no frictions, the shocks imposed on capital are absorbed quickly, through price-induced substitution among production factors and consumed goods (Lanzi and Sue Wing 2013). Also growth models have been applied. Hallegatte et al. (2007) use a single-region Solow-type model to compare the economic consequences of an extreme event on two similar economies, but with different economic dynamics. One of the two economies is on the balanced-growth path, while the other experiences a transient disequilibrium. They also explore the implications of constraints on the financial resources that can be mobilized for reconstruction every year. The paper shows that both assumptions significantly increase the economic costs of extreme events. Moreover, the
In the 1980s, evidence ofclimatechange was mounting and a number of international conferences raised worldwide concern about the issue. Governments realized how big a threat climatechange was and that they had to do something about it. They also realized that they had to work together to have any chance of success. Climatechange is a global issue because all countries will be affected by it and all contribute, in varying degrees. In 1988, the United Nations set up the Intergovernmental Panel onClimateChange (IPCC) which brings together thousands of scientists from around the world. Their task is to assess existing research and knowledge about climatechangeand its effects and to provide comprehensive reports at regular intervals. The most recent report, known as the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), was published in 2007. It concluded beyond all reasonable doubt that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have increased mainly as a result of human activities, and gave a grave warning of the consequences if nothing is done. In 1992, governments agreed the United Nations Framework Convention onClimateChange (UNFCCC). This international agreement has been formally accepted by 191 countries. The objective of the convention is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous, man‐made interference with the climate system. Under the convention, governments monitor and report the greenhouse gases they produce, develop climatechange strategies, and help the poorer among them address climatechange. They meet once a year to review progress and decide what to do next. The convention was designed as an umbrella under which more action would be agreed in the future. In 1997, Kyoto Protocol was agreed. This treaty commits industrialized countries to reduce or limit their greenhouse gas emissions and reach certain emission targets by 2012. Recently, the UNFCCC 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) meeting was held in Copenhagen in December 2009. It resulted in the Copenhagen Accord under which several developing and developed countries outlined intentions and commitments on carbon emissions, pledged support for technology transfer and acknowledged the importance of forest systems in combating climatechange.
ABSTRACT: Sealevelrise (SLR) can give various impacts such as inundation in the low-lying areas, in- crease the coastal erosion and extreme events such as storm surge, wave overtopping, salt intrusion and damage to existing coastal infrastructure, hence affects the socio-economy and the livelihood of the coastal communities. The projected SLR along the Sandakan coast for the year 2020, 2040 and 2060 are 0.1 m, 0.25 m and 0.5 m, respectively. This study was carried out to assess the impacts of SLR to Sanda- kan coast for 2020, 2040 and 2060; and to recommend some relevant adaptation measures to reduce the impact. Hydrodynamic model with simulations of 2020 and 2040 projected SLR show no significant change in Sandakan Town when compared to the existing condition, probably due to its high platform level. However, model simulations for 2060 projected SLR show that the wave heights may increase by 0.18 m compared to the existing 2.6 m, although the wave heights in Teluk Sandakan will not change much. Similarly, the maximum current velocities will increase by 0.15 m/s in 2060, compared to the ex- isting condition of 0.3 - 0.5 m/s. Overall, more impacts of SLR can be observed at Pulau Duyong due to its low-lying area. There will be a reduction in land area; about 958 hectares out of the existing 1,800 hec- tares of mangrove forests and coastal vegetation will be lost due to inundation and erosion, generated by the 0.5 m projected SLR in 2060. Construction of railings, low walls and rock bunds are recommended as an adaptation measures to ensure the safety of the people living along the Sandakan coast. There is also a need to raise the bund and platform levels for jetties and slipways at the Marine Police Complex to avoid inundation. The estimated cost for the recommended adaptation measures is about RM18.25 Million.
As climate will change in the next century and beyond, politics and stakeholders need to know the effect ofclimatechangeon German estuaries on, e.g, shipping, economy and nature. In order to find a strategy for adaptation to climatechange it is important to understand today’s situation and to analyse the future situation under the influence ofclimatechange. The aim of this study is to investigate stormsurges in a changing climate in the three most important German estuaries Ems, Jade-Weser and Elbe, and the effectiveness of probable adaptation measures by means of hydrodynamic modelling. A 3D hydrodynamical numerical model is used to calculate water levels and currents while the local wind fields over the estuaries are provided by a meteorological model of DWD. The investigation is carried out in a sensitivity study. Here, scenarios are developed where the key parameters (mean sealevel, river runoff, wind field) are systematically varied according to the knowledge about an expected future climate. Then, the modelling approach is used to investigate the impacton water levels. Finally, the effect of potential adaptation measures onstorm surge conditions is shown.