Nach oben pdf Cooperation, discounting, and the effects of delayed costs and benefits

Cooperation, discounting, and the effects of delayed costs and benefits

Cooperation, discounting, and the effects of delayed costs and benefits

a similar slope of the conditional contribution schedule. In a second study, we then quantify the amount of monetary incentives needed in order to close the cooperation gaps observed in our two asymmetric treatments. That is, in the case of delayed benefits we ask by how much economic incentives have to be increased in order to raise contributions up to the level without any delay, while in the case of delayed costs we study by how much economic incentives can be decreased such that contributions are similar to the level in the no delay case. This allows us to calculate a discount factor from our strategic context in which payoffs are interdependent, and compare it to the discount factor from our individual decision task. We find that in the case of delayed benefits, economic incentives (in terms of the marginal per capita return (MPCR)) need to be increased by 92% to raise contributions up to case without any delay. When costs rather than benefits are delayed, in contrast, economic incentives can be decreased by 52%. In both cases, the shift in economic incentives correspond to an implicit yearly discount rate of about 50%, which is much higher than the ones observed in individual choice tasks, where discount rates typically takes values of around 30% (compare e.g. Harrison et al. (2002); Dohmen et al. (2010)). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that demonstrates that delaying the consequences of actions in strategic environments can lead to exacerbated discounting. At the individual level, we further find some moderate correlation between discounting across our individual and strategic decision context, indicating that other factors than ones own degree of impatience matter for discounting behavior in strategic contexts, too.
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In and out of Equilibrium II: Evolution in Repeated Games with Discounting and Complexity Costs

In and out of Equilibrium II: Evolution in Repeated Games with Discounting and Complexity Costs

Another result that will help understand the dynamics is that with posi- tive complexity costs, All D is evolutionarily stable and even has a uniform invasion barrier. Because all other equilibria from the extension of Cooper’s (1996) result are not RAII, and therefore can be left through indirect inva- sions, this suggests that All D is more stable than all other equilibria. Yet, if we run simulations, we find that for low complexity costs, a population vis- its a range of strategies with different average cooperation levels. That can be understood if we realize that, as complexity costs decrease to 0, mutants that are not neutral with positive complexity costs become “almost neutral” if complexity costs decrease. Transitions that would be indirect invasions in the absence of complexity costs then become the driver of the dynamics again with vanishing complexity costs, and these include indirect invasions out of All D.
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Student Awareness of Costs and Benefits of Educational Decisions: Effects of an Information Campaign and Media Exposure

Student Awareness of Costs and Benefits of Educational Decisions: Effects of an Information Campaign and Media Exposure

In this paper, we examine the extent to which young people lack good information about the costs and benefits of staying on in education, and whether exposure to relevant information affects their knowledge and attitudes. Specifically, we explore the knowledge and aspirations of a sample of young students in London schools with regard to the costs and benefits of staying on in education. We first examine whether knowledge and aspirations are influenced by an ‘information campaign’ (which we design and implement via random assignment at school level). We also compare this to the effects of exposure to media reports about tuition fees. We can do the latter because the increase in tuition fees was announced during the period of our study (with an extremely high and extended level of coverage in the media), while our baseline and final survey of students took place at different times to accommodate school timetabling. We therefore argue that students were randomly exposed to different amounts of media coverage about tuition fees (because their level of exposure depends on the timing of the survey rather than on student or school characteristics). We take into account differences in students’ baseline knowledge about tuition fees by controlling for school fixed effects. Thus, we look at whether these two information ‘treatments’ had an impact on the knowledge and aspirations of a treated group of students relative to those in a control group between the first and second survey (conducted 8-12 weeks apart).
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Student Awareness of Costs and Benefits of Educational Decisions: Effects of an Information Campaign and Media Exposure

Student Awareness of Costs and Benefits of Educational Decisions: Effects of an Information Campaign and Media Exposure

Columns 1 and 2 show the effects of the information campaign in ‘high media exposure schools’ and ‘low media exposure schools’ respectively. Column 3 shows a p-value for whether effects are different from each other in the two groups. There are only a few questions where differences are significantly different from each other. As expected, the flow of media reports about tuition fees has no effect on the efficacy of the information campaign with regard to the perceived benefit of education. Where there is a difference, this is only for variables which might in principle be affected by information about tuition fees. In terms of when university fees are paid, media publicity about tuition fees actually reinforces the message of the information campaign. 21 On the other hand, the information campaign is only effective in reducing the perception of financial barriers to university participation when there is not much going on in the media (between surveys). When it comes to future intentions, the results (as measured by the coefficient on whether it is ‘very likely’ the student will ever apply to go to university to do a degree) hints that the information campaign might have had some effect in increasing aspirations were in not for the effect of media exposure about the increase in tuition fees (although it is not statistically significant).
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Benefits and costs of debt: The dose makes the poison

Benefits and costs of debt: The dose makes the poison

A number of studies estimate fiscal multipliers and find that multipliers vary widely, depending on circumstances. They show that multipliers range from a 1.1-dollar output decline to a 3.8-dollar output increase for every dollar of additional government spending or reduced revenues. The results depend on the cyclical position of the economy, country characteristics, including the coherence of fiscal frameworks, and the fiscal instrument employed. Specifically, fiscal multipliers are larger in recessions than in expansions, in advanced economies than in EMDEs, during crises than during non-crisis periods, and in flexible exchange rate regimes than in fixed exchange rate regimes (Kraay 2012, 2014). Several studies estimate peak fiscal multipliers during recessions in the range 3- to 4-dollar output increases (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko 2013; Bachmann and Sims 2012; Candelon and Lieb 2013). Output effects also tend to be larger for expenditure increases than tax cuts, and larger when accompanied by more accommodative monetary policy (Leeper, Traum, and Walker 2017).
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Costs and Benefits of Kosovo's Future Status

Costs and Benefits of Kosovo's Future Status

ability to use the positive effects of transition, i.e., of privatization and foreign investment inflows, to support the development agenda. Fiscal sustainability, historically Kosovo was the recipient of significant budget and other financial support until the late 1980s. This system was discontinued on the eve of the dissolution of Yugoslavia. After the suspension of Kosovo’s autonomy and the referendum for independence in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Kosovo was increasingly fiscally independent from Serbia. The Serbian government tolerated this independence as it minimized its financial obligations. Given that the fiscal system of Kosovo’s parallel state was not transparent at the time, it is hard to say anything with any kind of certainty about the costs and benefits of this dual system of public governance. Similarly, it is close to impossible to sort out the economic costs and benefits as much of what transpired in trade and investment went on under nonstandard circumstances and was not properly recorded statistically. Clearly, some of the more important resources of Kosovo – in the electricity sector and in extraction – were run by the Serbian state and must have provided it with some fiscal resources, but those would be very difficult to quantify with any precision. But the country, Serbia together with Kosovo, was under a rather severe system of international sanctions for most of the 1990s, and was also supporting several war efforts as well as the repressive regime in Kosovo, so that the economic distortions were so large that not very much can be said on the basis of that experience (Gligorov, 2002).
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Benefits and costs of cycling infrastructure investment.

Benefits and costs of cycling infrastructure investment.

This process of change had the following framework conditions: The operation period of the infrastructure and signing, 25 and 10 years respectively; the changed car accident rates; and the percentage of ‘active cy- clists’, taken from experienced-based data and used to assess health effects. Taking account of these condi- tions, the benefits of the measure are identified main- ly in three dimensions: reductions in infrastructure op- erating costs (48% of overall benefits); reduction in CO2 emissions (15%); reductions in material damage caused by accidents (15%). Based on this, a positive cost-benefit ratio of 3.43 was calculated. A cost-bene- fit ratio of only 2.49 was projected in an alternative sce-
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Costs and benefits of immigration and multicultural interaction

Costs and benefits of immigration and multicultural interaction

Of course, the simple model cannot account for all relevant gains and losses from immi- gration and cultural integration. Hence the influence of immigration on factor proportions and thus wages as well as the fiscal effects has been excluded although they certainly af- fect the domestic attitude towards immigrants. With regard to cultural interaction, I also assumed that individuals can avoid all the negative aspects of intercultural interaction by simply learning the other culture. However, probably some intercultural problems might be much more complex and cannot be solved so easily even though basic obstacles such as com- munication barriers have been abolished. Hence, one could also assume that the intercultural gain is smaller than zero. Finally, I concentrated on the existence of one minority culture. It may be interesting for future research to analyze the impact of not only the scope but also of the diversity of the immigrant culture on domestic well-being.
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Quantifying the Economic Effects of a European Smart Grid. A Survey on Costs and Benefits

Quantifying the Economic Effects of a European Smart Grid. A Survey on Costs and Benefits

This led to the Communication “Energy in- frastructure priorities for 2020 and beyond – A Blueprint for an integrated European ener- gy network”. According to Commissioner Oettinger, Europe is going through a para- digm shift in the way the EU produces, transmits, distributes, and trades energy: “Our existing grid is simply not up to the chal- lenge. It has to be updated; it is too old, too fragmented, and already overloaded at sev- eral critical points” (Oettinger 2011a:3). The investment needs of EUR 1trn also includes EUR 500bn investments in transmission net- works “including electricity and gas distribu- tion and transmission, storage, and smart grids” (cf. COM(2010)677/4:9). The Commis- sion further estimates that only half of these investments will “be taken up by the market” – creating an investment gap of about EUR 100bn (ibid.). But the Commission also re- marks that the opportunity costs would be even higher (cf. ibid). This communication also calls attention that electricity grids not only have to be updated to be able to inte- grate a high share of RES, but that – despite all efforts to increase energy efficiency – electricity demand is increasing because ofthe multiplication of applications and tech- nologies relying on electricity as an energy source (heat pumps, electric vehicles, hydro- gen and fuel cells, information and communi- cation devices etc.)” (COM(2010)677/4:6). The communication also refers to the obsta- cle of “long and uncertain” permitting proce-
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Costs and benefits of flexibility and autonomy in working time: The same for women and men?

Costs and benefits of flexibility and autonomy in working time: The same for women and men?

For the analysis of working time flexibility, I differentiate between means of employee-oriented and employer-oriented flexibility (Chung & Tijdens, 2013). Employee-oriented flexibility is flexi- time, which provides the potential for employees’ schedule control. This employee-oriented flexibility is in the focus of the analysis here. Employer-oriented flexibility, i.e. schedules that are flexibilized by the employer, is of less interest in the present study. I focus on Germany, where the split taxation system and other incentives, such as the childcare subsidy, foster the male breadwinner model and discourage partnered women’s full-time employment. As a result, gen- der inequality in the labor market is relatively high. This is evident in one of the highest part- time employment rates for women of almost 38 % and one of the highest gender pay gaps of approx. 22 % in Europe (OECD, 2012, 2013). For the empirical analysis, I make use of the Ger- man Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP, 1984- 2012). I estimated fixed-effects models for the analysis of within-individual changes over time. In order to capture different effects of working time arrangements on earnings between and within individual workers, I estimated hybrid panel regression models that make distinct between- versus within-individual variation.
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Assessing Costs and Benefits of Coastal Structures to Mitigate Erosion

Assessing Costs and Benefits of Coastal Structures to Mitigate Erosion

The sediment transport volumes are estimated by formulae that consider the angle of the shoreline to oncoming breaking waves, the breaking wave height, the beach slope and the sediment grain size. Using three-dimensional topographic data that is continuously updated during simulation, the model assumes that each wave acts during a certain period of time ∆t (computational time step) and is able to distribute erosion or accretion resulting from longshore transport along the active cross-shore profile. The 3D topo-bathymetric model is continuously updated during simulation, allowing distributing erosion or accretion sediment volumes between each computational time step. The wave transformation by refraction, diffraction and shoaling is modelled in a simplified manner (Coelho et al., 2007), always taking into consideration the updated bathymetric data of each time step. According to Coelho (2005), the refraction effects in LTC are estimated through Snell's law, while the shoaling effect is calculated assuming that Airy's linear theory of sinewaves is valid. The diffraction effects are only calculated for beach extensions located downdrift the groins, considering a simplified method, based on Sorensen et al. (2003). The shoreline evolution numerical model LTC was considered to estimate the benefits of a coastal intervention scenario through the evaluation of the territory maintained, gained, or lost, along the time. In the cost-benefit assessment, a land use value is assigned to every year area gained, maintained or lost along the shoreline evolution simulation time horizon. 2.2 Structures Pre-Design
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Costs and Benefits of Overlapping Regional Organizations in Latin America: the Case of the OAS and UNASUR

Costs and Benefits of Overlapping Regional Organizations in Latin America: the Case of the OAS and UNASUR

The OAS and UNASUR overlap with regard to mandate(s) and membership. Both organizations are nested, because all UNASUR member states are also OAS member states. They overlap in several issue areas, which to a certain degree reflect the topics covered by the 12 sectoral councils of UNASUR. Democracy protection and conflict mediation are salient fields of responsibility (mandates) for both organ- izations (Closa et al. 2016; Heine and Weiffen 2015). While one might argue that UNASUR was created to compete with and to replace the OAS in South American affairs, UNASUR has also emulated and adapted norms and practices from the OAS (Nolte and Wehner 2014), which might facilitate cooperation between both organ- izations. Since 2008, UNASUR has mediated in all militarized interstate conflicts in South America, as well as in intrastate conflicts that threatened democratically elected governments or the territorial integrity of a member country. The OAS also became involved in most of these crises parallel to UNASUR.
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Costs of Inaction and Costs of Action in Climate Protection: Assessment of Costs of Inaction or Delayed Action of Climate Protection and Climate Change. Final Report

Costs of Inaction and Costs of Action in Climate Protection: Assessment of Costs of Inaction or Delayed Action of Climate Protection and Climate Change. Final Report

In contrast to Nordhaus and Cline we apply regionally different damages function that are based, however, on the global temperature change. Damages occur basically because of three main issues: First, the global temperature change which is caused by energy related and non- energy related emissions, second, the regional population change and third the economic performance, the economic income change of a region. So, not only regions with a high eco- nomic performance but also with high population growth are affected by climate change if the global temperature changes. In comparison to other studies, higher economic damages have three reasons: the dynamic modelling approach with interregional and intersectoral feedback effects, the detailed climate system that is affected by the emissions coming from the eco- nomic performances and sectoral disaggregation of damage functions instead of adding one damage function into the model. The total effects differ from many economic studies but not from earlier studies of natural scientists. Figure 18 illustrates the individual damages in per- centage of GDP: ecological impacts have the highest impact as well as health and mortality. In this study, this is especially the case because of the relationship between income changes and population (health) and temperature and population (mortality). With increasing tempera- ture energy demand for cooling increases.
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Disincentive Effects of Unemployment Benefits and the Role of Caseworkers

Disincentive Effects of Unemployment Benefits and the Role of Caseworkers

assigned a caseworker whose task it is to process the benefit application, to advise and support the unemployed on job search, and to monitor job search efforts. Support can come in the form of simply discussing possible job options and application strategies, as well as by offering participation in active labor market programs (such as training programs, public employment programs or wage subsidies for potential jobs). Employment agencies also offer a platform for vacancy postings and they are used directly by employers to look for possible workers. Caseworkers have access to vacancies offered by employers and may refer them to specific unemployed workers. Apart from these supportive measures caseworkers monitor job search and can sanction individuals with benefit cuts if they fail to comply with search requirements. The duration of these cuts varies from one week (for example for delayed job search registration) to up to twelve weeks (for voluntary job quits). Sanctions are used to punish unemployed that do not use the offered support by the caseworker. Refusing to participate in an active labor market program, cancelling a started program or rejecting a vacancy referral can be punished with a benefits cut of three weeks. A lack of individual initiative in looking for a job can be punished with a cut of two weeks. The duration of benefit cuts increases with the number of sanctions. For example, the first two times a worker refuses a vacancy referral benefits are cut for three weeks, but this goes up to twelve weeks after the third refusal. Benefit cuts from different sanctions are additive up to a total duration of benefit cuts of 21 weeks, when benefits are cut completely, see Hofmann (2012). During the first meeting the caseworker assesses how easy it will be for the unemployed to find back into employment and assigns them to one of various profiles. These profiles may then be used to guide integration strategies by the local UI agency, though there is a lot of freedom remaining how caseworkers may use them. Caseworkers and unemployed typically meet in regular intervals to discuss job search progress, devise new application strategies and, potentially, to monitor search efforts by the unemployed. The frequency of these meetings is up to the caseworker 9 .
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Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy

Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy

real activity, which emerged following the recession in the U.S. in the 1990s (see, e.g., Bernanke and Lown 1991, Hancock and Wilcox 1993, Berger and Udell 1994, and Furfine 2000). The studies that evolved since then, including those that were motivated by the recent global financial crisis, can be grouped according to how changes in capital are measured. Using observed capital ratios is one option (see e.g. Bernanke and Lown 1991, Noss and Toffano 2014) while exploiting variation in bank-level capital requirements, i.e. supervisory data which is in general unobservable for the public, is a second (see e.g Ediz et al. 1998, Mishkin 2000, Francis and Osborne 2009, Aiyar et al. 2014b, Bridges et al. 2014, Jim´ enez et al. 2014, Meeks 2015, and Behn et al. 2016). Our paper circumvents an identification based on capital and instead translates the impulses first to credit supply shocks (of two polar kinds) which can then be identified based on sign restrictions. That is, we assume that capital ratios are adjusted by the amount required by the prudential supervisor and distinguish between ’asset-side deleveraging’ and ’raising fresh equity’ scenarios. By considering these two polar cases, we are agnostic about the effects of higher capital requirements on banks’ funding costs and the pass-through to lending rates.
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Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy

Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy

real activity, which emerged following the recession in the U.S. in the 1990s (see, e.g., Bernanke and Lown 1991, Hancock and Wilcox 1993, Berger and Udell 1994, and Furfine 2000). The studies that evolved since then, including those that were motivated by the recent global financial crisis, can be grouped according to how changes in capital are measured. Using observed capital ratios is one option (see e.g. Bernanke and Lown 1991, Noss and Toffano 2014) while exploiting variation in bank-level capital requirements, i.e. supervisory data which is in general unobservable for the public, is a second (see e.g Ediz et al. 1998, Mishkin 2000, Francis and Osborne 2009, Aiyar et al. 2014b, Bridges et al. 2014, Jim´ enez et al. 2014, Meeks 2015, and Behn et al. 2016). Our paper circumvents an identification based on capital and instead translates the impulses first to credit supply shocks (of two polar kinds) which can then be identified based on sign restrictions. That is, we assume that capital ratios are adjusted by the amount required by the prudential supervisor and distinguish between ’asset-side deleveraging’ and ’raising fresh equity’ scenarios. By considering these two polar cases, we are agnostic about the effects of higher capital requirements on banks’ funding costs and the pass-through to lending rates.
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Costs and benefits of EU enlargement

Costs and benefits of EU enlargement

are substituted by imports, negative consequences for employment, income and growth in Germany will result. To realise the benefi cial effects of enlargement, the willingness to undertake structural reforms is therefore very important. In some sectors of industry, particu- larly those which are wage-intensive, the pressure to undertake structural adjustments will become strong- er. Flexible markets, above all fl exible labour markets, are in a better position to cope with these changes. How big or small the positive effects of enlargement are also depends on Germany. The more fl exible and competitive Germany is, the greater our opportunities in the expanding “new east” will be. And vice versa! In this respect, the future costs and benefi ts have yet to be determined – they may develop dynamically. In cases where businesses move from Germany to the acceding states, Germany will suffer job losses. If, however, investment leads to additional capacity be- ing created in German companies, this will strengthen German competitiveness as a whole.
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Costs and benefits of immigration and multicultural interaction

Costs and benefits of immigration and multicultural interaction

Of course, the simple model cannot account for all relevant gains and losses from immi- gration and cultural integration. Hence the influence of immigration on factor proportions and thus wages as well as the fiscal effects has been excluded although they certainly af- fect the domestic attitude towards immigrants. With regard to cultural interaction, I also assumed that individuals can avoid all the negative aspects of intercultural interaction by simply learning the other culture. However, probably some intercultural problems might be much more complex and cannot be solved so easily even though basic obstacles such as com- munication barriers have been abolished. Hence, one could also assume that the intercultural gain is smaller than zero. Finally, I concentrated on the existence of one minority culture. It may be interesting for future research to analyze the impact of not only the scope but also of the diversity of the immigrant culture on domestic well-being.
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Benefits and costs of automation support

Benefits and costs of automation support

In those studies higher-stage automation was realised as stage 3 automation (decision support). The current experiment implemented automation that not only resumed decision-making but also the action implementation component of the monitoring task (stage 4). This difference could be crucial for operators perceiving their role and accountability in interaction with automation. When a task is completely automated, the operator’s role is that of a supervisor, i.e. he has to monitor the proper functioning of the automation and ensure that everything is as expected. The human operator as a supervisor is accountable for the overall task. In contrast to that, the role definition of an operator in interaction with stage 3 automation might not be that clear-cut. Whereas the human operator is taken out-of-the-loop from cognitive processes of a task, he is still responsible for the implementation of an action that was supposed by automation. Therefore, an operator who is still in charge of action implementation may define his role more or less limited to this subtask instead of feeling responsible for the entire task. These differently perceived role images might explain the deviant findings between prior research and the current results. Based on the foregoing reasoning it seems plausible that operators supported by stage 3 automation stay mainly focussed on executing what the automation recommends. This might reduce their probability to detect an automation’s malfunction and make them more prone to adverse performance effects resulting from unreliability of automation. This fits to the findings of previous research. In contrast, operators who are supported by automation that resumes the complete task, as in the current experiment, are focussed on monitoring the automation’s proper functioning, and therefore should be able to compensate for it at least partially if a malfunction occurs. This role perception as a supervisor of automation therefore resulted in comparable attention allocation strategies to the IA-supported group which had to allocate attention to the automation-supported task because those participants were still accountable for the concrete task fulfilment. Therefore, although the role images behind the expressed behaviour of IA- and DA-supported groups might differ, both role perceptions resulted in the same behavioural outcome.
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The costs and benefits of European immigration

The costs and benefits of European immigration

In the UK a recent study suggested that wages among native resident workers had not been affected at all by immigration. And if they were affect- ed, they would rather have gone up (Dustman et al., 2003). In Spain a study covering the early 1990s concluded weak but positive effects of immigration on the labour market outcomes of native workers (Dolado et al., 1996). An OECD survey distinguished three categories of immi- grant workers in the Spanish labour market, all three categories being comple- ments to native workers. The first group consists of immigrants from other EU countries, who are on average better educated than the average Spanish work- ers and engage in skilled jobs in labour market niches and linked to their cha- racteristics as immigrants (language ability, cultural proximity for services to foreign residents). A second group consists of the highly educated non-OECD immigrants employed mostly in the commerce and professional service branches. The third group includes the majority of non-OECD immigrants, who, by contrast, are more concentrated in unskilled jobs. In part, they occupy jobs that are no longer attractive for native Spaniards, due to harsh working conditions and low pay, e.g. greenhouse farming, construction jobs and do- mestic services, where virtually no natives are employed. In these jobs, im- migrants seem to be complementary to the native labour force. However, they compete with each other and generate a downward pressure on the wages and the labour conditions in the sectors they are employed in (OECD, 2003). Immigration was recognised by an OECD study as a success story for the Greek labour market. A substantial increase in labour supply of about 10% over 10 years – generated by immigration – has been absorbed with little detrimen- tal effect on Greek workers’ wages. Immigrant workers in Greece tend to be concentrated in three particular sectors, in which they are complements to the natives: agriculture, household services and constructions. In the case of con- struction, EU regional funds and the Olympic Games of 2004 in Athens have provided a boost to demand, causing wages to rise for both natives and foreign workers (OECD, 2005c).
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