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Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

1999 )) that relates emissions to RPK for different aircraft types and allows aggregation at the fleet level. The approach allowed the modelling of the improvements from incorporating more fuel- efficient aircraft into the fleet. Regional forecasts of RPK to 2020 were used from ICAO/FESG to calculate emissions in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. After 2020, global RPK projections to 2050 were calculated using a non-linear Verhulst function with the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) global domestic product (GDP) projections, A1 and B2 ( IPCC, 2000 ), to calculate emissions for 2030, 2040, and 2050 in a similar manner to Hen- derson et al. (1999) . These SRES scenarios, designated here as FAST- A1 and FAST-B2, were chosen because they were the ‘baselines’ against which assessments of mitigation were undertaken by the IPCC within WGIII for AR4. The overall growth of aviation in scenario B2 is not greatly dissimilar to that of the mid-range IPCC (1999) scenario, Fa1, and the A1 scenario is likewise similar to the upper-range IPCC (1999) scenario, Fe1. The FAST-A1 and FAST-B2 results are shown in Fig. 3 along with other earlier projections. The FAST-A1 and FAST-B2 scenarios include a scaling by a fixed amount of 64 Tg fuel yr 1 , respectively, in order to be consistent with IEA fuel sales data up to 2005 ( Fig. 3 ). This amount represents the average difference between 1990 and 2000 data from a bottom-up inventory of aviation emissions ( Lee et al., 2005 ), excluding military emissions and IAE data on fuel sales data.
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Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

Most of the cited studies rely on air temperature and pre- cipitation as meteorological forcing data, applying simple temperature index methods for calculating snow and ice melt. However, the degree-day factors are calibrated for past con- ditions and their transferability in space and time is uncer- tain. Several studies hence have pointed out that more physi- cal methods should be favored over classical temperature in- dex melt calculations in climate change impact studies (e.g., Farinotti et al., 2011; Huss et al., 2009; Radi´c et al., 2013; Viviroli et al., 2011). Some studies have for example applied enhanced temperature index methods that also take solar ra- diation into account for melt calculation (e.g., Addor et al., 2014; Bosshard et al., 2013; Fatichi et al., 2015; Finger et al., 2012), addressing the fact that glacier melt rates are espe- cially sensitive to variations in solar radiation (e.g., Huss et al., 2009; Ohmura et al., 2007). Only very few studies (e.g., Kobierska et al., 2013; Weber et al., 2010) however have ap- plied full energy balance melt models for climate change im- pact assessment. While their superiority to more empirical methods is undisputed under the premise of in situ recordings of the required meteorological variables at the point scale, it remains challenging to provide adequate meteorological forcing data for their application in distributed mode. Nev- ertheless, due to their physical basis energy balance models are in principle better suited to account for changed climatic conditions than conceptual models (e.g., Klemeš, 1990; Wal- ter et al., 2005; Pomeroy et al., 2007).
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Global climate change and aspects of regional climate change in the Berlin-Brandenburg region

Global climate change and aspects of regional climate change in the Berlin-Brandenburg region

To obtain an estimate of the average temperature of the northern hemisphere during the last 1200 years, proxy data have been merged with instrumental recordings. These instrumental measurements are, with a few exceptions, only available for the recent 150 years. In the city of Berlin the temperature has been recorded since as early as 1701. However, during the first 150 years the measurements were problem- atic as location, measurement procedure and instruments changed frequently and without proper docu- mentation. From 1847 onwards observations became more reliable once the Royal Prussian Meteorolog- ical Institute had been established. For the last 100 years temperature and precipitation measurements have been performed in parallel at Berlin-Dahlem and Potsdam. The datasets recorded in the city of Berlin and in Berlin-Dahlem have been merged to obtain a record of more than 300 years. It indicates that the temperature of Berlin has risen by 1.04°C during the last 100 years after correcting for the urbanisation effect. In the same period, the total number of frost days has significantly decreased by almost 17 days, and the number of summer days has significantly increased by about 12 days. Annual mean precipitation has hardly changed (decrease less than 0.2 %) during the last century. However, rainfall has decreased by about 4 % in summer and increased by 3 % in winter. All precipitation changes are below the 95 % significance level. Model projections indicate that warming will continue which means that Berlin-Brandenburg will experience a temperature rise of about 3-3.5°C by the end of this century for the IPCC scenario A1B. For the same scenario precipitation is expected to increase by 10-20 % in winter and to decrease by 10-30 % in summer: The seasonal precipitation changes compensate each other resulting in an almost unchanged annual mean.
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Global Demographic Change and Climate Policies

Global Demographic Change and Climate Policies

1. Introduction Between 1950 and 2017, world average life-expectancy increased from below-50 to above- 70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5 children per woman (Figure 1 ). The worldwide rise of life-expectancy and fall of total fertility rate is expected to ro- bustly continue for the remainder of the current century, with the emerging economies catching up the patterns typical for economies that industrialized before. The world- wide demographic trends decreases the ratio of young relative to old and change the propensity to save of the average consumer. Both supply of labour and capital will adjust, and future capital returns will most likely differ from those in the past.
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Impact of Aviation on Climate: FAA’s Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II

Impact of Aviation on Climate: FAA’s Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II

Contrail geographical, geometrical, meteorological, and optical properties; a new contrail radiative property parameterization scheme; estimation of the global contrail radiative forcing[r]

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Aviation and Climate Change: II - Air Traffic Management and Aviation Non-CO2 Issues.

Aviation and Climate Change: II - Air Traffic Management and Aviation Non-CO2 Issues.

RFI.” Forster et al (2006) note: “CO 2 emitted by aircraft might have a much smaller initial RF than a contrail, but, crucially, it will remain in the atmosphere many times longer and continue to give a RF for the next 10–300 years, whereas the contrails and cloud RF only last for a few hours or days. Most other aircraft related climate effects have timescales of around 10 days. Aircraft methane’s indirect effect on ozone is the only other aircraft related climate effect with an appreciable timescale (around 10 years).” Forster et al (2006) made an illustrative calculation of an ‘Emission-Weighting Factor’ (EWF), which estimates the total effects of the gas emissions and other physical effects over a specified number of years. This derives from the IPCC concept of global warming potentials (GWPs): these compare the heat-absorbing ability of each gas relative to that of CO 2 , as well as the decay rate of each gas – the amount
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Just War Doctrine: Relevance and Challenges in the 21st Century

Just War Doctrine: Relevance and Challenges in the 21st Century

169 some tentative predictions about the nature of conflict in the foreseeable future but it must do so with caution and caveat. It has become something of a cliché to claim that the nature of war, as indeed of international relations in general, underwent a revolutionary change with the collapse of the Soviet bloc at the end of the 1980s. Many would argue that a further paradigm shift was marked by the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon on September 11 th 2001. As with all clichés there is, of course, a considerable element of truth in these claims but, again as with all clichés, they belie the subtlety of reality. It is often held, for example, that whilst the Cold War nuclear stand-off held the spectre of global nuclear annihilation over the World, it also kept the lid on simmering local hostilities that were then to explode into open conflict in the 1990s. Consideration of the very many conflicts throughout the Cold War era in Africa, South-East Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, however, renders this a rather incomplete analysis. So we must recognize in looking at new challenges, that there are likely also to be many continuities. Indeed this is the central thesis of Colin S Gray‘s comprehensive treatment of future war Another Bloody Century: ‗Historical perspective is the only protection we have against undue capture by the concerns and fashionable ideas of today. These concerns and ideas may be valid and important for now, but they are inadequate as a basis for understanding future warfare.‘ 9
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Competing Liberalizations: Tariffs and Trade in the 21st Century

Competing Liberalizations: Tariffs and Trade in the 21st Century

1. Introduction Fifteen years after the launch of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA), the successive multilateral agreements reached in Bali (2013) and in Nairobi (2015) cover only a tiny share of the initial working program. Moreover, their formal implementation, after fraught discussions, remains complicated: Bali’s package on trade facilitation has not yet been ratified by the required two-thirds majority. And prospects of reaching a wider agreement seem remote, to say the least. This stalemate is all the more striking given that there has been no shortage of trade policy reform during the last fifteen years. Either as a result of their own policy initiatives or of their commitments upon World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, a number of countries have significantly liberalized access to their market, China and India being cases in point. Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have multiplied, to the point where they are taking center stage in the trade policy arena. Meanwhile, the number of preferential agreements has quadrupled in twenty years, and ongoing negotiations between very large economic entities – the so-called mega-deals – could change dramatically the trade landscape. The varied nature of these crisscrossing policy changes (even the scope and depth of RTAs strongly differ from one another, as we document below) makes it difficult to understand how they redefined the trade policy landscape, and what the consequences may be in the near future, as illustrated by the differing interpretations offered: for instance, while Hufbauer and DeRosa (2007) emphasize that “global tariff-cutting over the past decade was dominated by preferential trade agreements”, Krishna (2012) concludes instead that “the actual amount of liberalization that has been achieved through PTAs [Preferential Trade Agreements] is actually quite limited”.
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Climate change threatens global development and international stability

Climate change threatens global development and international stability

furthermore seems to be quite high. The current en deavours in fighting poverty and regional stabilisation would be set back. In Asia the melting Himalayan glaciers is a central prob- lem. Apart from flooding and landslides, this means primarily a shortage of freshwater resources which could affect more than one billion people in 2050, ac- cording to the assessment of the IPCC. In large parts of the continent flooding and temperature increases will impede the containment of typical tropical diseases and will probably lead to higher mortality. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will be especially hard hit by the fore- seeable climatic consequences. The destructive storms and floods that already occur nowadays will take place more and more often and will also unleash a much larger destructive power due to rising sea levels. In addi- tion, salinisation of the soil and changing monsoon patterns will affect the regional food production whose yields could decrease by up to 30 % by the middle of the century. In the densely populated and notoriously con- flict-ridden Gulf of Bengal one can also expect that the social tensions could escalate in a violent manner. In China the economically significant southeast coast (tropical storms) and large parts of the hinterland (droughts, heat waves, desertification) will be especially starkly affected. It is hard to tell if the adaptive capaci- ties of the state can match at the same time the chal- lenges of modernisation, social crises, environmental stress and the consequences of climate change.
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Aviation, Atmosphere and Climate (AAC)

Aviation, Atmosphere and Climate (AAC)

Due to the particular location of aircraft emissions, i.e., in the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere, aviation’s contribution to anthropogenic climate change is significantly larger than would be expected from its CO 2 emissions alone. Furthermore, aviation is one of the fastest growing industrial sectors, e.g., in the first half of 2005 the number of revenue passengers travelling from German airports increased by 6.9 % relative to the same period of the previous year, according to a recent press release 3 of the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Deutscher Verkehrsflughäfen (ADV). Therefore, the impact of aviation on the composition of the global atmosphere and on climate has attracted a particular scientific interest, which resulted in a Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: “Aviation and the Global Atmosphere” (IPCC, 1999).
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Aviation and Climate Change: II – Air Traffic Management and Aviation Non-CO2 Issues.

Aviation and Climate Change: II – Air Traffic Management and Aviation Non-CO2 Issues.

RFI.” Forster et al (2006) note: “CO 2 emitted by aircraft might have a much smaller initial RF than a contrail, but, crucially, it will remain in the atmosphere many times longer and continue to give a RF for the next 10–300 years, whereas the contrails and cloud RF only last for a few hours or days. Most other aircraft related climate effects have timescales of around 10 days. Aircraft methane’s indirect effect on ozone is the only other aircraft related climate effect with an appreciable timescale (around 10 years).” Forster et al (2006) made an illustrative calculation of an ‘Emission-Weighting Factor’ (EWF), which estimates the total effects of the gas emissions and other physical effects over a specified number of years. This derives from the IPCC concept of global warming potentials (GWPs): these compare the heat-absorbing ability of each gas relative to that of CO 2 , as well as the decay rate of each gas – the amount
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Global Climate Change and Aviation - The Challenge

Global Climate Change and Aviation - The Challenge

Hence, increased fuel efficiency is important (for several reasons) In addition, cruising aircraft impact climate by NOx and contrails The aviation share in radiative forcing is presently 3 % (range 2-8%) Scenarios of aviation CO 2 emissions show potential increase by

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"Kyoto plus" - strategies for global climate policy in the 21st century

"Kyoto plus" - strategies for global climate policy in the 21st century

Humankind’s forceful impact has a name: anthropogenic climate change. This is caused above all by human activities that increase the abundance of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere. At the end of the nineteenth century the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 280 ppmv. That may look like a small amount, and why an increase of such a small amount, or even double that amount, should be so significant is hard to understand. An alternative yardstick for human impact through greenhouse gases (GHG) is the rise in global mean surface tempera- ture caused by the increase in GHG abundance. A rise by 3° Celsius as a result of a 00-percent increase in GHG concentration since the pre-industrial age would be the presumable equivalent — its calculation, however, requires more than just simple measurements and indeed an entire climate model. Yet reactions to this figure will probably be equally unworried: “So Germany will have the same temperatures as Majorca has today — what’s the problem?” Positive responses such as this may be expected. This is why we are using a different gauge, namely, the energy or radiative forcing that affects atmospheric processes as a result of humanmade fluctuations in GHG concentration. It is measured in watts of absorbed solar irradiance per square metre (W/m 2 ) and
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Impact of climate change on first generation biofuels production in the 21st century

Impact of climate change on first generation biofuels production in the 21st century

different atmospheric levels of CO2. With respect to the dynamic of change in GHG emissions savings for SBD between +70 and +350 ppm CO 2 gains in GHG emissions savings due to CO 2 enrichment are going to rise by 23%. In contrast, as the climate gets warmer in the long term future (+5 o C temperature increased), the GHG emissions savings for SBD are projected to decline in all climate change scenarios even under doubled CO 2 (+350 ppm) enrichment. For instance, at +5 o C temperature increase, and 20% precipitation decrease, there is substantial declines in the GHG emissions savings (-46%). This demonstrated that SBD production would be equally well if not better, in a warmer (milder temperatures increase) and CO2 enriched future. This might not be unconnected with the photosynthetic advantage that that soybean (a typical C3 crop) has over corn (a typical C4 crop) at considerably high temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO 2 than today’s condition (Oliver et al., 2009).
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Vilem Flusser, the 21st Century and the Interactive Technologies

Vilem Flusser, the 21st Century and the Interactive Technologies

Flusser considers the telematic society as a society without any copyright, open source and open access to knowledge everywhere (Flusser, 2008). The projected goal is to generate new knowledge all the time, but for that the access to existing knowledge has to be free of charge and free for everybody. This kind of society is quite utopic, because the human nature longs for private property as well, not only for common goods. So it is like a communist dream, where in theory a socialist society is the pre- stage to the ideal communist society, in which everything belongs to everybody and no disparity between the individual members exists (see Engels, 1986). That way, a telematic society is more or less a communist society. The communication in telematic networks is characterized by the following points: non-centralistic, changeability, immateriality, transsubjectivity, equality, timelessness and dislocation (Flusser, 2008). The commercialization process of today‟s internet has somehow introduced this communicative points, eventhough some stronger concentration tendencies can be found. There are dominating enterprises on the internet as well, so a real equality does not exist, but this is only a reflection of society: fraternite, egalite, liberte are phrases of utopia.
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The principle of reciprocity in the 21st century

The principle of reciprocity in the 21st century

Abstract The principle of reciprocity is central to trade cooperation. Economic theory char- acterizes reciprocal policy changes that guide nations from noncooperative policies to the Pareto e¢ ciency frontier. This paper extends the theory of reciprocity to a wide range of settings relevant for 21st century trade negotiations. Global value chains and rigid institutional constraints can lead to nations lacking the policy space necessary to in‡uence relevant local prices abroad. Trade agreements then have a role in address- ing these local price externalities in addition to the usual terms-of-trade externality. Yet we show that the standard concept of reciprocity— policy changes that equally increase net export value at world prices— can nonetheless guide nations toward the e¢ ciency frontier. The crucial condition for reciprocity’s application is that the policy changes which undo the terms-of-trade ine¢ ciencies also undo the other ine¢ ciencies. We …nd a set of policies such that no nation can gain from any reciprocal unwinding of trade commitments, and we show that these policies are globally e¢ cient. Such stable policies are then a suitable prediction for trade negotiation outcomes when local price externalities matter. We derive the new predicted outcome and explore its relevance for existing theory and empirics of trade cooperation, including settings with imperfect competition, political economy, and global value chains.
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Arable weeds in the face of global climate change

Arable weeds in the face of global climate change

The complex interaction between arable management and germination requirements of arable weeds highlight that a change in only one of these factors or both simultaneously will accelerate the decline of many arable species in today’s landscapes (Otte 1994). With the Convention on Biological Diversity (United Nations 1992) the global community has committed itself to manage the conservation and restoration of biodiversity. To increase biodiversity of agricultural landscapes and to stop the further decline of arable weed species, conservation measures for arable weeds should be explicitly intensified. Agro-environmental schemes like the German program ‘100 fields for biodiversity’ (Meyer 2010) need to be expanded in order to come up from local release for the endangered species to a denser grid of weed conservation sites which would enable migration of arable weed species. Political tools like the concept of ‘High Nature Value Farmland’ (PAN, IFAB, INL 2011) and the ‘Production Integrated Compensatory Measures’ (Litterski et al. 2008) of the European Union can be helpful to conserve rare and endangered arable weeds at the landscape scale. Another possibility for building a large-scale conservation grid are field margin strip programs (Marshall and Moonen 2002) with focus on spontaneous vegetation at field margins without herbicides and fertilizers instead of seeded flower stripes. These conservation measures would give arable weed species greater margins to face future climatic changes. Accessibility of suitable sites and genetic exchange between populations will enable species to adapt to climate and land use change.
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Measuring the economy of the 21st Century

Measuring the economy of the 21st Century

Fast forward, again, to the 2007 CRIW paper by Barry Bosworth and Jack Triplett on service sector productivity. 12 This paper revisits and updates Griliches’ earlier finding that services were a drag on overall growth during the slowdown. Looking at a longer period, they report a speed-up in services relative to the goods- producing sectors: Labor productivity growth in services rose from an annual rate of 0.7 percent in 1987–1995 to 2.6 percent for 1995–2001, while the corre- sponding numbers for the goods-produc- ing sectors were 1.8 percent and 2.3 per- cent, respectively. They also find that 80 percent of the increase in overall labor pro- ductivity growth after 1995 came from the contribution of information technology in the service sectors, contrary to the Baumol hypothesis that services were inherently resistant to productivity change.
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The uncertainty and ambiguity of leadership in the 21st century

The uncertainty and ambiguity of leadership in the 21st century

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21st century regionalism: Filling the gap between 21st century trade and 20th century trade rules

21st century regionalism: Filling the gap between 21st century trade and 20th century trade rules

The first point is easy. In today‟s world, it is difficult to establish a company‟s nationality so it is difficult to write deep RTA provisions that only apply to companies of any particular nation. As we shall see in the examples below, this problem has frequently led RTAs to define the affected firms by where they are incorporated. This allows firms from third nations to free ride on bilateral opening by incorporating affiliates in one of the RTA nations. The second point is more subtle. As argued in Section 3, deep RTAs typically foster the trade-investment-services nexus by liberalising developing countries‟ infrastructure service sectors, for example, telecoms. The RTA may be written in a way that gives telecom companies from one partner an edge in providing telecom services in the market of the other. In this sense it is discriminatory and may divert services trade from, say, a US telecom to, say, a Japanese telecom. But as far as trade in goods is concerned, it matters little whether the world-class telecoms are provided by a US or Japanese company. Trading firms from all nations find it easier to sell to the developing country member of the RTA when telecommunications work well. In this way, a deep RTA provision on telecom liberalisation can act like a public good for exporters from all nations.
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