III. THE RISKS AND THREATS TO NATIONAL INTERESTS
The risks of the present period are characterised by great diversity and by the increase of the share of internal threats over external ones, of unconventional risks over the conventional ones, and indirect risks over the direct risks.
The new geostrategic context, the new economic and ideological framework of Central and East European state in the period following the Cold War put us in a complex situation of confrontation with the new risks related to the exploi-
tation: in the destructive sense, of the differences of religious and ethnic nature;
generating conflicts, some with an open military character; risks like international terrorism, drug trafficking, specific risks associated with transition; as well as the acknowledgement of the risk factors that were present for a longer time but were totally ignored, such as the ecologic disasters, natural and technological catas- trophes.
These risks of insecurity are extremely complex and are often interlinked just like the very connections in the different fields between the actors of the inter- national system represented by one of the most important contemporary features
incertitude. Therefore, the analysis of the risks and threats to national security, with the obvious purpose of developing strategies of security that would provide credible answers, is included in the natural course of creation of more efficient mechanisms against uncertainty.
The interdependent and trans-frontier character of these new or newly-ac- knowledged sources of risk requires the harmonisation of security strategies (i.e.
cooperation in their management). International, as well as interdisciplinary co- operation, the confrontation with the security and risk issues requires the con- tribution of politicians and military specialists, as well as the contribution of the engineers, economists, environmentalists, specialists in social sciences, etc.
The elaboration of certain complex and integrated plans, with the use in the decision-making process, with the ultimate purpose of developing a management of risk, is conditioned by the accomplishment of some thorough risk assessments.
The lack of correlation of the programmes of risk assessment and manage- ment, at different levels (local, national, sub-regional, regional, global), represents today a true risk. When we talk about the assessment and quantification of risk, we should take into account the possibilities of emergence of an undesired event, as well as the consequences of its emergence, classified in accordance with the affected targets and required measures.
Thus, the sources of risk are not independent but inter-conditioned. They influence each other, generating a diversity of possible scenarios. The importance of a scenario is higher when it influences several other scenarios.
Because the risk not only represents a situation, but also is more of a mental product, the perception of risk perception is important. From this perspective, the necessity to build awareness for public opinion, society in general and differ- ent segments of the society, particularly the political one, regarding these issues is imminent. It will act for the creation of a security culture or safety culture
a problem that is in accordance with the present trend of understanding security not only in terms of state security, but also, explicitly, in terms of safety of the population as groups or individuals.
The development and implementation of certain strategies of protection against external threats (even threats to sovereignty and territorial integrity) must be the full responsibility of certain specialised services (credible services that have no other mission than the protection of national interests) and imply the knowl-
edge and use of national and state goals, psychological techniques (educational, communicative, etc.) of stimulating patriotic feeling and orientation in a construc- tive direction. This patriotism (a genuine patriotism and not one of reaction or
pseudo-patriotism) must represent a fundamental component of this safety culture. The attempt to list the main risks of insecurity characteristic to the zone we belong to can represent a step in the direction of creation of this true culture of safety, security.
Examining the national interests of the country we ascertain the existence of a multitude of political, economic, social, cultural, environmental and military threats, that seriously jeopardise the very statehood of the country. The post- ponement of solving the problems related to these interests would result in the disappearance of the state or existence of a fictive independence.
The achievement of national interests of the state is directly related to the assurance of appropriate domestic and external conditions for their materialisa- tion. The territory of the Republic of Moldova is placed in the region where the interests of other larger and stronger countries meet, where the geopolitical situation has always been and always will be threatening from the perspective of conflicts and instability. The situation is aggravated by the presence in the coun- try of illegal and foreign military forces without direct control on behalf of the official leadership, and we cannot exclude the attempts of political, economic and military pressures on the state, which represent a threat to national security.
By threat to national security we understand the intention of hostile forces manifested in any form, or the factor of environmental, technical and other nature, whose accomplishment or influence can be a threat to the individual, society and the state.
The Main Threats to National Security are:
Direct aggression and territorial claims of other states;
Local or regional conflicts close to the borders of the Republic of Moldova, including the conflicts related to the unregulated relationships between different countries from the region;
The uncontrolled transportation of weapons, as well as components of nuclear, biologic, bacteriologic and chemical weapons through the territory of the Republic of Moldova or in proximity to its borders;
The actions directed to the violent change in the constitutional order, the undermining or disappearance of sovereignty, independence and territorial integ- rity of the republic;
Actions directed to the undermining or destruction of the economic, tech- nical, scientific, and defensive potential of the country, as well as the creation of situations of environmental threats;
Actions directed to the worsening of the social situation and provocation of social conflicts;
Terrorism, organised crime, drug trafficking, illegal immigration;
Actions with the purpose of harming of the constitutional rights and lib- erties of citizens.
Meanwhile, the Republic of Moldova is should take into account the exist- ence of real military threats to its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity:
The presence in the territory of the republic of foreign troops;
The existence of illegal military structures in the eastern districts of the country and potential military threats;
The attempts of interference from outside in the internal affairs, destabi- lisation of the internal political situation of the country;
The activity of separatist organisations, orientation to the armed violation of territorial integrity of the republic;
Creation of illegal military structures;
Eventuality of territorial claims.
Thus, there are a series of internal and external factors that can combine and mutually complete causing a threat to the national interests of the Republic of Moldova.
The main internal risk factors of political, economic, military nature that should be taken into account at the present time in order to assure the national security are: Political and social instability;
Spiritual and patriotic deficiency within society;
Massive exodus of the work force;
Economic decline, the deficits of the balance of payments and state budget;
Territorial splitting of the economic sector of the country in two systems co-existing in legal conditions and different organisational forms;
Unilateral dependence on the suppliers of energy resources;
Social costs generated by the transition to market economy (unemploy- ment, insufficient social security and assistance, the worsening of the level of living of a considerable share of population, low quality of professional training);
Extremist and separatist manifestations;
The presence on the territory of the republic of foreign military troops;
Social unrest and convulsions;
Imperfections in the legal framework being in the process of modification and adaptation in accordance with the requirements of a democratic society;
Weapons and munitions trafficking;
Narcotics trafficking, organised crime, shadow economy, terrorist actions;
The low quality of medical assistance;
Decrease of the birth rate of the population;
Low quality of the environment.
The importance of these factors for the Republic of Moldova, as a conse- quence of the domestic vulnerability caused unavoidably by the transition pro- cess, is indisputable because the threat of internal subversion tends to gain superiority over an eventual external aggression.
One of the factors that severely affect national security is the existence of regions with a separatist tendency (the eastern districts of the Republic of Mol- dova), where in fact the state cannot exercise its sovereignty. This factor is determined by:
Existence of conflict in the eastern districts of the country and the lack of a constructive position of the leaders of the anti-constitutional regime regarding its solution; their tendency to create an independent Transdnistrian state;
Existence of illegal military structures in the so-called Transdnistrian Repub- lic, well prepared and equipped, organized according to the classic model of armed forces;
Illegal presence of foreign troops in the districts from the eastern bank of Dniester River, as well as the postponement on behalf of Russia for the withdrawal of its military units from the territory of the country;
Uncontrolled proliferation of weapons and munitions, particularly in these districts, the resulting increase of criminality;
Launch of local production of weapons and military machinery in the so- called Transdnistrian Republic, a fact contributing to the proliferation and sup- plies of the illegal military formations;
Involvement of local as well as foreign Cossacks in the Transdnistrian region;
Tacit economic, political and military support of the so-called Transdnis- trian Republic on behalf of some official personalities and political groups in Russia.
The main international risk factors that could affect the national security of the Republic of Moldova are:
The phenomenon of instability that characterises the transition from the old to the order of European security, the existence in the proximity of national boundaries of some regions with political, social and military instability, of poten- tial or existent conflicts;
The aggressive expansion of terrorist-extremist networks and activities, of trans-national organised crime: drug trafficking, economic and financial criminal- ity, illegal trans-frontier traffic in humans, radioactive and strategic materials, wea- pons and munitions;
Attempts of foreign pressure against Moldovas sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, using the separatist actions from within the country;
Direct aggression or its possible preparation based on territorial claims or other unregulated interstate disputes;
Presence of foreign military troops, temporarily stationed on the territory of the Republic of Moldova;
Geopolitical and geostrategic interests of the great powers in the region;
Unregulated relations between different states from the region;
Fragility of the general situation of the country undergoing transition, limi- tation of the countrys access to the vital resources for the population and economy, and economic dependence on external factors;
The loss of some traditional markets,
Actions undertaken by a state or a group of states oriented to a blockade or economic isolation of the country, underestimation or destruction of its eco- nomic, technical-scientific and defensive potential;
Attempts and external actions that have the purpose of negative influence over the financial and banking system of the country, the devaluation of national currency;
Uncontrolled proliferation of nuclear technologies and materials, means of mass destruction, weapons and other unconventional lethal means;
Accomplishment of military activities, the use of technologies, experimen- tations of new weapons and munitions in the close proximity of the Republic of Moldova, which can cause a threat to the ecologic equilibrium of the environ- ment; the existence in the proximity of national borders of some objectives with a high degree or risk.
Therefore, ascertaining the general state of ambiguity regarding the definition and acceptance at the national level of national interests and strategies of their implementation, the multitude of risks and threats, we reach the main conclusion of this research: the vital necessity of revising the Concept of National Security and the Concept of Foreign Policy, as well as the redefinition of the role and missions of the Supreme Council of Security