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The relationship between the European Union and Africa: deos China jeopardize it?

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The relationship between the European Union and Africa: does

China jeopardize it?

Júlia Mező – Beáta Udvari

PhD student assistant lecturer

University of Szeged

Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Szeged, Hungary

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Structure of the presentation

1. Research objective

2. The EU-Africa and the China-Africa relations 3. Motivations behind the cooperation with

Africa

4. Empirical analysis: the difference between the EU and China

Hypothesis tests

Correlation analyses

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1. The aim of the paper

To determine the similarities and the

differences between the EU and China while they build their relations with Africa.

→ theoretical background reflects to key differences

3 3

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2. The EU-Africa and the China-Africa relations

EU-Africa

Lomé Conventions (1975-2000, -2007)

Cotonou Partnership Agreement – Economic Partnership Agreements (2000-2008)

Development aid

China-Africa

Bandung Conference I and II (1955, 2005)

China’s modern Africa Policy (2006)

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3. Motivations

the European Union China

Political

motivations

preserving colonial relations

building up democracy

preserving influence

human rights (allies)

non-recognition of Taiwan

global role

Development motivations

development

providing aid for development

eradication of poverty

investment in infrastructure

no poverty issues

Economic motivations

trade

natural resources

FDI

natural resources (oil hunger)

trade (gaining market)

FDI

5 5

Source: authors’ own construction

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4. Empirical analysis: the difference between the EU and China

34 Sub-Saharan African countries

11 indicators (commercial, macroeconomic and political)

1995-1998; 2005-2008; 2009-2010

Hypothesis tests: 2 paired t-tests and an independent samples t-test

Correlation analyses

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Hypothesis tests

Paired t-tests: whether Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade with the EU and China was significantly increased in recent years

Independent sample t-test: whether the EU and China make a distinction between the countries that have oil resources and those that not (1995-98: 5 oil-countries; 2005-08 and 2009-10: 7 oil-countries)

7 7

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Results – paired t-test I.

t-test sig.

1995-98 / 2005-08

t-test sig.

2005-08 / 2009-10 Export of SSA

countries to the EU 0.000

Significant increase

0.611

No significant difference Import of SSA

countries from the EU 0.000 0.446

Total trade of SSA

countries with the EU 0.000 0.199

Export of SSA

countries to China 0.000 0.006

Significant increase Import of SSA

countries from China 0.000 0.000

Total trade of SSA

countries with China 0.000 0.000

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t-test sig.

1995-98 / 2005-08

t-test sig.

2005-08 / 2009-10 The EU’s share of

the SSA countries’

total export

0.083 No significant

difference 0.164 No significant difference The EU’s share of

the SSA countries’

total import

0.001 Significant

decrease 0.012 Significant

decrease China’s share of

the SSA countries’

total export

0.000

Significant increase

0.004

Significant increase China’s share of

the SSA countries’

total import

0.000 0.004

9 9

Source: authors’ own construction

Results – paired t-test II.

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Results – independent sample t-test

t-test sig. (in all three periods)

SSA countries’ export

to the EU < 0.05 Trade values are

significantly higher with the oil-countries than

with the not net oil- exporters

SSA countries’ import

from the EU < 0.05

SSA countries’ export

to China < 0.05

SSA countries’ import

from China > 0.05 No significant

difference

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Correlation analyses

Whether similar or different factors (GDP, GDP per capita, distance, etc.) play greater role in trade with the EU and China

Compare the economic powers to each other

Investigate the changes happened between the periods

11 11

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Results – correlation 1995-98

SSA countries’ export to the EU

import from the EU

export to China

import from China

GDP ++ ++ + ++

GDP per capita + +

trade openness ECI

population + +

political stability

distance from China

distance from Germany

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Results – correlation 2005-08

13 13

SSA countries’ export to the EU

import from the EU

export to China

import from China

GDP ++ ++ ++

GDP per capita +

trade openness +

ECI +

population + + +

political stability corruption index

distance from China

distance from Germany

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Results – correlation 2009-10

SSA countries’ export to the EU

import from the EU

export to China

import from China

GDP ++ ++ + ++

GDP per capita trade openness ECI

population + + +

political stability corruption index

distance from China

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5. Conclusions

The most important factors of the trade

relations are the market potentials and the oil capacity of the African countries

Democracy and freedom is not as important as we expected in the EU-Africa relations

There is no significant difference between the Western and Eastern presence

15 15

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Thank you for your attention

The presentation is supported by the European Union and co-funded by the European Social Fund.

Project title: “Broadening the knowledge base and supporting the long term professional sustainability of the Research University Centre of Excellence at the University of Szeged by ensuring the rising generation of excellent scientists.”

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