Monetary and Fiscal Policy:

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Monetary and Fiscal Policy:

How Have the Two ‘Climbers’

Helped Each Other in the Past Decade and a Half ?

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Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes:

Keywords:

l

ászló

D

oMokos

p

h

D,

G

yula

p

ulay

p

h

D, habilitated associ-

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Civic Review· VOL. 17. Special Issue, 2021

T

h e T wo C l I M b e r s

2

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4

.

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Civic Review· VOL. 17. Special Issue, 2021

C

h a n G e s I n T h e D I r e C T b u D G e Ta ry r I s k s o f M o n e Ta ry p o l I C y a n D T h e fa C To r s a f f e C T I n G T h e M

-16,6 -5,5 65,5

-41,6 13,6

-39,8

26,3 27,4 44,5 54,3

38,3 47,8

254,7 255,4

-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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(5)

48,1% 35,2% 27,7% 27,7%

32,6%

30,6% 31,9% 34,7% 41,4% 49,3%57,5% 57,8% 58,4%

38,5%

87,0%

85,5%

90,4%

91,2%

92,8%

91,3% 86,8% 85,6%

82,1%

75,2% 77,7%

79,0 75,8%

52,9%

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Cash Equity Other interest-bearing liabilities Gold and foreign exchange reserves

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Civic Review· VOL. 17. Special Issue, 2021

- .

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50 61

29 20 55

74 71

223 214

255

1 12

25

5

8

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

minimum reserve two-week bond overnight deposit

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r

e va luaT I o n I M pa C T a n D C h a n G e s I n r e s e rv e s

49,9

283,0 252,3 415,9

1 330,6

533,8 418,5

572,5

341,1 199,9

31,9

176,2 220,0 644,4

- 200,0 - 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 1 000,0 1 200,0 1 400,0 1 600,0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

HUF bn

Year

Forint exchange equalisation reserve Foreign exchange securities equalisation reserve Total equalisation reserves

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Description 2017 2018 2019 2020

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ign currency claims and the entry rate.

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Civic Review· VOL. 17. Special Issue, 2021

The data are summarised in Table 2.

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Description 2017 2018 2019 2020

f

a C To r s a f f e C T I n G T h e

Mnb’

s p ro f I Ta b I l I T y a n D T h e r e l aT e D b u D G e Ta ry r I s k s

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increased would rise more than the yields that could be obtained by holding foreign

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I

n D I r e C T b u D G e Ta ry I M pa C T s o f T h e M o n e Ta ry p o l I C y

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Civic Review· VOL. 17. Special Issue, 2021

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6,7 8,2

9,1

7,3 7,6 7,9 5,9

4,8

3,4 3,1 3,0 3,1

2,5 2,2 7,5

10,0

6,3 5,8

7,0 5,8

3,0 2,1

1,4

0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,6 0,0

2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 long-term interest rate base interest rate

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-

T

^{h e} ^{I M pa C T} ^{o f} M o n e Ta ry p o l I C y o n T h e f I n a n C I n G s T ru C T u r e o f p u b l I C D e b T

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Civic Review· VOL. 17. Special Issue, 2021

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Breakdown of foreign currency and

forint debt

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Share of forint debt Share of foreign

currency debt

bn) Foreign currency

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3 547 3 871

4 704

6 209 7 248

8 217 8 210 8 091

10 190

4 573

6 034 5 998 4 772 2 408

1 963 1 470

2 253

5 085

- 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MNB deposits of credit institutions government securities stock of banks and money market funds

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the growing demand for credit from businesses and households.

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Civic Review· VOL. 17. Special Issue, 2021

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o

u T l o o k

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Civic Review· VOL. 17. Special Issue, 2021

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necessary to deal with the aftermath of the crisis and to re-launch the economy. Reducing the

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long-term interest rates low.

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o T e s

2

4

r

e f e r e n C e s

)

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Civic Review· VOL. 17. Special Issue, 2021

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gyorgy-irasa)